Who’s Under Center

NFL 2026  ·  Week 3  ·  Thursday Sept 24 – Wednesday Sept 30

Sixteen games kick off between tonight and Monday night, and every one has its own report below. The slate was pulled from nfl.com, confirmed against CBS Sports and Yahoo, filtered to the seven-day window, and the reports were counted against that list before writing and again before delivery. One nfl.com page fetch returned only 14 games; the two it dropped (Bengals–Steelers and Ravens–Cowboys) were restored from the league’s by-week page and CBS.

This week’s signature: the Under Center ledger. Six of 32 teams will not start their healthy Week 1 quarterback, and they account for the two biggest line moves on the board. Each game opens with a quarterback strip — who starts, and whether he is the man the season began with — because this week, more than any rating, that is what decides games. Every probability in the report still descends from one predicted margin, shown on the Margin Meter in each game.

The three must-watch games

Two more worth recording: Seahawks at Commanders, the week’s biggest injury-driven line move (about nine points) as Marcus Mariota replaces Jayden Daniels against the defending champions; and Titans at Giants, where the market moved half a point on the Giants losing Jaxson Dart for the season — the one line on the board this report thinks is wrong by more than a field goal.

Contents — 16 games

Also in this report: forecast board · Under Center ledger · schedule difficulty · scorecard, Weeks 1–2 · run notes

Forecast board — all sixteen, one margin each

Lines are ScoresAndOdds, Thursday morning Sept 24, the book of record this week. Blue = the market favorite, rust = the underdog. Win = predicted winner’s chance; Fav cvr = chance the market favorite covers; Total = model total, O/U lean. One outright underdog call: Titans over Giants. Highest confidence on the board: 79%. Nothing is taken to the 90% ceiling.

The Under Center ledger — signature

Twenty-six teams start the quarterback they opened the season with. Six do not, or have not decided. The bar shows how far each of those games’ point spreads moved on quarterback news, in points, from the look-ahead or opening line to Thursday morning.

Analysis: the market has repriced Washington and Chicago about as much as the ratings say it should (see those game reports). It has barely moved on the Giants, whose Week 1 starter had a 125.9 passer rating and whose replacement completed 41% of his passes in relief — the one quarterback change this report thinks is under-priced. Atlanta’s change is the only one that improves a team.

Schedule difficulty — league-wide, computed once

One table for all 32 teams, built here and referenced from every game report. A team carries the same tier everywhere it appears. It rates the schedule each team has already played (Weeks 1–2). The 32 teams are split by rank into thirds: the toughest 11 are hard, the next 10 medium, the easiest 11 easy.

Provisional — 2 games played
Every team has played two games, so each schedule is two opponents. Method deviation (documented, same as Week 2): at this sample size opponents’ combined winning percentage mostly restates a team’s own results, so the ranking is ordered by the average current FPI of the two opponents faced (ESPN FPI via Yahoo, Sep 23), with opponents’ combined record printed alongside so the rating can be checked. Ties broken on opponent record. Ratings stay provisional through Week 4; the specified win-percentage method returns in Week 5.

This is a relative ranking: a ‘hard’ tier in a flat year is easier than a ‘hard’ tier in a top-heavy one, and after two games the whole table can reshuffle in a week.

Scorecard — calibration, Weeks 1–2

The aim is honest probabilities, not a good win-loss record: games called at 70% should win about 70% of the time. Scored from the predictions recorded in the run log (Week 1 includes the Wednesday kickoff game).

Calibration by confidence band (bar = actual win rate, tick = stated confidence, scale 0–100%)

Read: slightly overconfident overall (65% stated, 62.5% realized) — and the miss is concentrated in the 50-59% band, where coin-flip calls went exactly 7-7 against 58% stated. The 70-79% band is well calibrated. Brier of 0.227 beats a know-nothing 0.250 but not by much; two weeks is 32 games and the error bars are wide. Adjustment this week: eight of sixteen games sit at 56-59% and are described in their reports as near coin flips, not leans; nothing is pushed past a field goal without a matchup reason. Week 2 total leans went 10-5 (one push excluded); spread-cover leans went 8-8.

1 · Game Overview

Green Bay finally plays at home. The Packers opened with two road games for only the fourth time in franchise history, lost the first by 17 in Minneapolis and needed a rookie kicker's overtime field goal to escape the Jets. They come back to Lambeau with a 13-game home-opener winning streak, tied for the longest in NFL history, and a short-week injury list that has taken two starters off the offensive line (G Aaron Banks, OL Zach Bako-Bewele) and their best slot receiver (Jayden Reed, neck). Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner's Exempt List.

Atlanta's case is simpler: the quarterback play could not get worse. Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand have combined for one touchdown, five interceptions and a 38.2 passer rating, and the Falcons have scored 16 points in two games. Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start since tearing his ACL last November. The Falcons' defense has been respectable (4.9 yards per play allowed), and Bijan Robinson has 155 rushing yards on 37 carries, so a competent quarterback changes more than the passing game. Both teams are 0-2 against the spread, both offenses rank in the bottom four in third-down conversion, and Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 in Thursday night games.

Conditions
About 60°F at kickoff, falling into the mid-50s. Clear to partly cloudy, calm wind, no rain in the NWS forecast (valid Sep 23). Not a weather game.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Packers by 6): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (GB line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers

Impact: Final designations are published for this game. Green Bay's offensive line is the pressure point: two interior starters out on three days' rest, against a Falcons front that has only four sacks. Atlanta losing Terrell and Ebukam thins a secondary that faces Christian Watson (6-147-2 in Week 1).

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Atlanta Falcons · 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-1, road 0-1

Green Bay Packers · 1-1 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-0, road 1-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the line has moved two points toward Atlanta on one piece of news, and money on both the side and the Under has followed. Analysis: that move is reasonable. Rush was the worst quarterback in the league through two weeks and Penix is a real upgrade, but he has not taken a live snap since last November and he is doing it on a road Thursday in a hostile building.

The likely script is low-scoring and run-heavy. Green Bay's pass protection is compromised and its receivers are thin behind Christian Watson with Reed out; Atlanta will lean on Robinson to protect its quarterback. Green Bay should win the game on home field and a better defense, but the extra points of cushion the Packers carried at the open are gone and the model sees no edge on the number. The total is the cleaner lean: two offenses in the bottom four on third down, a cool night, and a combined 58 points scored by these teams across four games.

Opinion: Packers by six is the forecast. If Penix is sharp early, Atlanta +5.5 is the side that ages well.

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1 · Game Overview

Buffalo is 2-0, has scored 77 points, and gets ten days of rest after its Thursday win over Detroit. Josh Allen has not turned the ball over: 582 passing yards, 9.7 yards per attempt, five touchdown passes and four more on the ground. The Bills convert 57% of third downs and score a touchdown on a league-high 15.9% of possessions. The one flaw is real: the defense has allowed 31 points in both games and ranks 27th in opponent EPA per play.

The Chargers are the opposite. Two identical 26-14 losses, both at home, both to teams the market rated worse. They have scored a touchdown on 7.7% of possessions, fumbled six times against the Raiders, and lost both tight ends (David Njoku to IR, Charlie Kolar to forearm surgery). Justin Herbert has three interceptions and ranks 28th in EPA per play. Jim Harbaugh's defense has been the part that works, eighth-best by EPA against the run, but it is carrying rest days for Khalil Mack and Derwin James and a hamstring for Dalvin Tomlinson into a road game against the league's hottest quarterback.

Conditions
Mostly sunny, high near 69°F, calm wind turning N 5-7 mph in the afternoon, no precipitation mentioned (NWS, valid Sep 23; four days out, recheck).

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Bills by 8): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+1) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (BUF line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo Bills

Impact: Game designations are not yet published (due Friday). Buffalo's interior defensive line is the thinnest it has been: without Oliver and Sanders, the Chargers' run game (3.9 YPC) is the one path to shortening the game. The Chargers' offensive-line list is longer and more consequential, with Slater, Pipkins and Awosika all on it.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Los Angeles Chargers · 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-2, road 0-0

Buffalo Bills · 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 1-0

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: every piece of evidence through two weeks favors Buffalo, and the market knows it — the line has jumped through the key number of 3 and most books sit on 7 with heavy juice. Analysis: the FPI gap (6.8 points) plus home field puts the fair number near 8. Buffalo's 31-points-allowed defense is the only thing keeping this from double digits.

The Chargers' path is a clock-control game: run on first down against a Bills interior missing Oliver, keep Allen on the sideline, and win the turnover battle. Nothing in their first two weeks says they can execute that. The more likely script is Buffalo scoring early, the Chargers passing from behind without their tight ends, and the Bills' pass rush getting home.

Opinion: Bills by eight, a small lean to cover at -7 but not at -7.5. The model total (46) sits under a number the market pushed up two points; the Chargers have scored 14 in each game.

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1 · Game Overview

Cleveland's home opener, and the rare road favorite in a game between two 1-1 teams. Carolina has the league's most extreme two-game sample: a 59-37 loss to Chicago in which the Bears ran for a record-setting 291 yards, then a 34-3 demolition of Atlanta in which Devin Lloyd intercepted two passes, returned one for a touchdown and won NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Bryce Young is tied for the league lead with six touchdown passes and has thrown one interception.

Todd Monken's Browns won his first game as a head coach, 23-19 at Tampa after a two-hour lightning delay, on an efficient Deshaun Watson (24-of-30, two touchdowns). Watson is completing 76.9% of his passes but half of them go to backs and tight ends, and Cleveland's run game is the league's weakest at 2.9 yards per carry. The Browns traded Myles Garrett to the Rams in the offseason and have four sacks.

Conditions
Sunny, high near 68°F, light wind, no precipitation in the NWS forecast (valid Sep 23). Lakefront gusts are the only variable.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Panthers by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (CAR line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns

Impact: Designations come Friday. Lloyd and Phillips are the two Carolina defenders who swung the Atlanta game; if either sits, the Panthers' defensive profile goes back toward the unit that allowed 448 rushing yards in two weeks. Cleveland's list is mostly limited participants who are expected to play.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Carolina Panthers · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-1, road 1-0

Cleveland Browns · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-0, road 1-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the public is on Carolina at nearly 4-to-1 and the line has moved one point their way. Analysis: ratings agree with the direction (FPI gap 4.8 in Carolina's favor before home field), but a road favorite of 2.5 off a 31-point win is the classic spot where recency is doing some of the pricing. Carolina's defensive numbers are wildly split between a disaster and a shutout.

Game script: Cleveland will try to run to protect Watson and shorten the game; Carolina will try to throw early against a banged-up secondary. The Panthers' offense has been more reliable than their defense, and it is the better unit on the field Sunday.

Opinion: Panthers by three. The spread is a near-coin flip at 2.5; the small total lean is Over, because Carolina's defense has not yet shown it can stop a run game — even a bad one.

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1 · Game Overview

Aaron Glenn returns to the building where he built Detroit's defense, and his Jets defense is the most improved unit in this matchup. New York allows 4.0 yards per play (third in the league) and 15 points per game, forced four fumbles against Green Bay and is 2-0 against the spread. Geno Smith has not thrown an interception. The trouble has been finishing: the Jets led the Packers 17-7 in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime, and Glenn's clock management drew heavy criticism. He is 4-15 as Jets head coach.

Detroit is 1-1, 0-2 against the spread, and both of its games went over. Jared Goff has six touchdowns and no interceptions, but the defense has allowed 35.5 points and 476 yards per game, opponents convert 58.6% of third downs, and the safety room is gone: Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph on PUP, Avonte Maddox out for the season, Thomas Harper not practicing. The Lions have ten days of rest after their Thursday loss in Buffalo and have not beaten the Jets at home since 1997.

Conditions
Indoors. Weather not applicable.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Lions by 5): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (-1.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (DET line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

New York Jets

Detroit Lions

Impact: Detroit could start its fourth- and fifth-string safeties. That matters less against a Jets passing game that throws short (7.1 yards per attempt) and now lacks Taylor and Smith. The Jets' concern is Fitzpatrick, their best defensive back, against Goff.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

New York Jets · 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · home 0-1, road 1-0

Detroit Lions · 1-1 · ATS 0-2 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: this line has dropped three points from its look-ahead while three-quarters of the tickets sit on Detroit. Analysis: that is the market respecting the Jets' defense and Detroit's secondary losses. The ratings gap (5.3 FPI points plus home field) points to about seven, but that rating was built when Detroit had safeties.

The likely game script has Detroit leading most of the way and the Jets staying close through ball control and takeaways, the same pattern as their Green Bay game. Detroit's offense on ten days' rest is the best unit on the field; the Jets' offense is the worst. The margin is the question, not the winner.

Opinion: Lions by five, which leans Jets +6.5. The total lean is Under — the public agrees, but the Jets have held both opponents to 20 or fewer and have not allowed a rushing touchdown.

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1 · Game Overview

Two 0-2 AFC South teams, and one of them leaves at 0-3 — a start from which historically only about 2-3% of teams reach the playoffs. Indianapolis has the worse problem. The Colts have allowed 1,029 yards through two games, the most since 2016, at 7.25 yards per play by this report's count and 5.4 yards per carry. Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has said publicly that the sense of urgency "has never been higher," and Shane Steichen's decision to punt late in regulation at Kansas City is the moment that framed the week. The Colts at least showed life in that 33-30 overtime loss, covering as a 6.5-point underdog.

Houston's defense is fine. Its offense is not. The Texans scored six points against Cincinnati, went 5-of-17 on third down, ran for 60 yards, and C.J. Stroud has been sacked seven times in two games. Nico Collins (Grade 1 hamstring) missed that game and is not expected to play here either. What Houston has is the series: five straight wins over Indianapolis, most recently 38-30 in January.

Conditions
Roof status not yet announced. Outside: partly sunny, 66-73°F, light ENE wind, ~5% precipitation (NWS valid Sep 23; nflweather). A closed or open roof makes little difference in these conditions.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Texans by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (HOU line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Impact: Designations come Friday. Collins' absence is the swing: Houston's offense without him scored six points. Indianapolis losing Pierce (its deep threat) and possibly Ward (its best corner) compounds a defense already allowing a 118.2 opponent passer rating.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Houston Texans · 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-2, road 0-0

Indianapolis Colts · 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-1, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: public tickets are on the home dog, the line has moved toward the road favorite, and the ratings (FPI gap 2.3) point to a near pick'em once home field is applied. Analysis: the market move is about matchup, not rating: Houston's defense is real and Indianapolis' is not, and that asymmetry outweighs Houston's scoring problem.

The likely script is a Houston lead built on defense and field position, with Indianapolis throwing late. Two good-weather indoor offenses with a combined 45 points per game suggest the market's total is about right; the model lands a half point over it.

Opinion: Texans by three, exactly the number. No spread edge. If Collins is upgraded on Friday, lean Houston; if Taylor's rest day turns into a designation, lean Houston harder.

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1 · Game Overview

The reigning AFC champion against the AFC South leader, and the best defense in the league through two weeks. New England has allowed 16 points total, 4.52 yards per play and a 78.1 opponent passer rating, and it ranks second in defensive EPA per play. Mike Vrabel's team held Seattle to 13 and held Pittsburgh to a field goal. The offense is the problem: Drake Maye has four interceptions and one touchdown, A.J. Brown is on IR with a high ankle sprain, and right guard Mike Onwenu was carted off last week and will miss weeks.

Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10, then blew a 10-point lead in a 20-13 loss at Denver. Trevor Lawrence has been efficient (110.6 rating, four touchdowns, 8.3 yards per attempt), but the split is stark: 124.9 against a standard rush, 62.8 against the blitz, and Jacksonville allows a 53.8% pressure rate when blitzed. The defense is statistically worse than the scoreboard (6.15 yards per play allowed) but has been excellent in the red zone, allowing two touchdowns on seven trips.

Conditions
Mostly sunny, 81-84°F at kickoff, NE wind about 4 mph, no rain in either forecast (NWS valid Sep 23; nflweather). Heat and humidity favor the home team late.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Jaguars by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (JAX line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

New England Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars

Impact: Jacksonville had no one miss practice Wednesday. New England's secondary (Woodson DNP, Dell Pettus status unclear) is thinner than at any point this season, and its line lost its best interior blocker. The injury ledger tilts clearly toward Jacksonville.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

New England Patriots · 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Jacksonville Jaguars · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: sharper money is on Jacksonville, public tickets on New England, and the line has settled on 3. Analysis: ratings agree with the market almost exactly (FPI gap 0.7 plus home field = 2.2). The difference between these teams is health: Jacksonville is whole, New England is missing its best receiver, a starting guard and possibly a starting safety.

Script: a low-scoring, field-position game. New England's defense keeps it close; its offense has to avoid giving Jacksonville short fields. Heat at 1 p.m. in late September has historically been worth something to the home side.

Opinion: Jaguars by three. No edge against the spread at -3. The clearer lean is the Under: New England games have totaled 23 and 23, and the model total of 37 sits well below 45.5.

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1 · Game Overview

The biggest spread of the week and the most lopsided betting. Kansas City is 2-0 with Patrick Mahomes back from last year's torn ACL (566 yards, five touchdowns, full practice this week) and Kenneth Walker III leading the league in rushing (290 yards). The Chiefs gained 523 yards against Indianapolis last Sunday night, held the ball for about 37 minutes — and still needed overtime to win, which is why they are only 1-1 against the spread.

Miami is 0-2, 0-2 against the spread, and has scored 13 points in each game. Jeff Hafley's rebuild is starting from scratch: Malik Willis has been sacked nine times, and the defense has not recorded a sack in two games. It has allowed a 118.5 passer rating. The Dolphins' one structural advantage is the calendar: a 1 p.m. late-September kickoff in Miami Gardens with thunderstorms in the afternoon forecast.

Conditions
Mostly sunny, 83-86°F, thunderstorms 40% (NWS) to 55% (nflweather), mainly after 2 PM; wind NE 6 mph. Lightning-delay risk in the second half.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Chiefs by 11): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (-0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (KC line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins

Impact: Simmons is the one to watch. A backup left tackle is the only obvious way a Miami pass rush with zero sacks gets home. Chris Jones limited with a calf matters less against a Miami offense averaging 271 yards.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Kansas City Chiefs · 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · home 2-0, road 0-0

Miami Dolphins · 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-0, road 0-2

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the line moved 4.5 points on near-unanimous money. Analysis: the ratings put the fair line near 11 (FPI gap 12.4 less home field), so the market has caught up rather than overshot. What it has not priced is variance: heat, afternoon storms, and a Kansas City team that played to the Under all of last season.

Script: Kansas City controls the ball on the ground, Mahomes plays mistake-free, and Miami's offense punts. The question is whether the Chiefs push a 14-point lead to 21 or sit on it in 86-degree heat. Last season's team sat on it.

Opinion: Chiefs by 11, a coin flip at -11.5. The Under is the better position — though at 80% public it is no longer a contrarian one.

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1 · Game Overview

The Giants lost their quarterback on Monday night. Jaxson Dart, who threw three touchdowns in the Week 1 upset of Dallas and carried a 125.9 passer rating, tore up his left knee (MCL, PCL and meniscus) on the opening drive in Los Angeles and needs season-ending surgery. Jameis Winston takes over after going 11-of-27 for 111 yards and an interception in relief. Brian Burns is also likely out with an ankle sprain, which removes the Giants' best pass rusher from a defense that has one sack in two games.

Tennessee is 0-2 but has not looked like a winless team since the opener: it covered at home against Philadelphia, Cam Ward ran for two touchdowns, and Ward has not thrown an interception in six games. Jeffery Simmons leads the league in pass-rush wins. The problem is the backfield — Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both missed Wednesday with ankle injuries. Revenge runs both ways: former Giants coach Brian Daboll is Tennessee's offensive coordinator, and former Titans coach Brian Callahan coaches the Giants' quarterbacks.

Conditions
Mostly cloudy, 63-67°F, NE wind up to 11 mph. Showers 50% (NWS) vs. 19% (nflweather) — the forecasts disagree; both printed.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Titans by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (-5.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (NYG line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Tennessee Titans

New York Giants

Impact: New York loses the two players who most separated it from Tennessee. Andrew Thomas' groin matters doubly: Simmons is the one Titan who can take over this game. If both Titans running backs sit, Tennessee's offense narrows to Ward.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Tennessee Titans · 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-2, road 0-0

New York Giants · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the market moved only half a point on a starting quarterback's season-ending injury. Analysis: that looks too small. Before the injury, FPI rated Tennessee 3.6 points better than New York, the worst team in the league by its measure — enough to make the Titans a slight favorite on a neutral field. Dart was the most productive part of the Giants' offense, and Winston's relief outing was poor.

Script: a slow game in possible rain, two offenses in the bottom half of the league, and turnovers deciding it. Tennessee's defense has been the better unit. Winston's variance runs both ways, but against Simmons with Thomas limited, it probably runs the wrong way.

Opinion: Titans by three — an outright underdog call and the largest edge against the spread on the board. The caveat is the Titans' backfield: if both Pollard and Spears are ruled out Friday, trim the edge.

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1 · Game Overview

The AFC North leader visits the team it has struggled against for two decades. Cincinnati is 2-0 and 2-0 against the spread, and the change is on defense: the Bengals allow 16.5 points per game, generated 27 pressures on 62 Houston dropbacks last week and have eight sacks. Joe Burrow has been steady rather than spectacular (96.8 rating) with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combining for 170 yards in Houston.

Pittsburgh has the league's least productive offense among teams in this report. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 5.2 yards per attempt, the Steelers converted 5-of-25 third downs through two weeks and managed 235 yards and three points in New England. Mike McCarthy's first season began with a 20-13 home win over Atlanta; the defense (16.5 points allowed, seven sacks, three interceptions) is carrying the team. Home field matters here: Pittsburgh leads this series 72-41 and won the last meeting 34-12.

Conditions
About 64°F at kickoff, NW wind 8 mph, 2% precipitation (nflweather, Sep 24). NWS: mostly sunny, high near 69 (forecast issued Sep 22, slightly stale).

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Bengals by 4): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (CIN line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

Impact: Designations Friday. Cincinnati's interior line is its concern: Hill and Allen both missing would open the middle for Pittsburgh's run game — if Pittsburgh has a healthy back to use it. The Steelers' cornerback list (Dean, Porter, Ramsey) is the bigger problem against Chase and Higgins.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Cincinnati Bengals · 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 1-0

Pittsburgh Steelers · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: money is overwhelmingly on Cincinnati and the total has fallen four points in a week. Analysis: ratings support the Bengals by about three (FPI 4.4 less home field); the market is a half-point beyond that. Pittsburgh's offense is the worst unit on the field, but Pittsburgh's home record in this rivalry and its defense keep this close.

Script: a field-goal game for three quarters. Cincinnati's receivers against Pittsburgh's injured corners are the likeliest source of the one or two explosive plays that decide it. Pittsburgh needs a defensive score or a short field.

Opinion: Bengals by four, a thin lean on the number. Total lean Under, slightly: the model's 42 sits a half-point below a line that has already dropped.

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1 · Game Overview

"Battle of the backups," as Covers framed it — possibly. Washington's Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow on the last play of the first half in Dallas, the same elbow he dislocated against Seattle last November, and Marcus Mariota starts. Mariota was efficient in relief (11-of-16, a touchdown) but has lost six of his last seven starts, and Washington is 3-7 without Daniels over the last three seasons. It is the Commanders' home opener after two road losses.

Seattle's quarterback is unsettled too, but in a different way. Sam Darnold hurt his glute on the first series of the season, returned to limited practice Wednesday, and Mike Macdonald will decide by the end of Friday. Drew Lock has been excellent in his place — 35-of-48, 422 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions — and threw all three of his Week 2 touchdowns to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The defending champions' defense is the real story: 8.5 points per game, 3.75 yards per play, four interceptions, a 59.0 opponent passer rating.

Conditions
About 71°F, NW wind 13 mph, 4% precipitation (nflweather, Sep 24). NWS: mostly sunny, high near 75. Wind is the only factor worth noting for kicking.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Seahawks by 8): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+1) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (SEA line, points; bar scale 0–14)

Negative = Seahawks was the underdog at that point.

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Commanders

Impact: Washington's Wednesday list has six non-participants including its quarterback, its best linebacker and a starting guard. Seattle's official participation table was not retrievable (404); the team's written update is used. Seattle's list is short, and it has already won with Lock.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Seattle Seahawks · 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 1-0

Washington Commanders · 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-0, road 0-2

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: this is the largest injury-driven move of the week, roughly nine points. Analysis: it is about right. Before the injury, FPI had Seattle 6.5 points better; subtract home field and add two or three points for the drop from Daniels to Mariota and the fair line lands between 7 and 8.

Script: Seattle's defense forces Washington into long third downs and Seattle grinds the clock with a lead. The Commanders' run game can keep it inside a touchdown for a half. The Seahawks' quarterback decision matters less than it looks — Lock has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Opinion: Seahawks by eight, a small lean to cover. The total is a coin flip at 40.5; wind and two defensive game plans keep it low.

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1 · Game Overview

San Francisco is the best team in football by every rating in this report: FPI first at +7.3, 2-0 straight up and against the spread, a +42 point differential, and a Brock Purdy stat line (80.4% completions, five touchdowns, zero sacks) that looks like a video game. The 49ers convert 63.2% of third downs. They won 27-7 over the Rams in Melbourne and 35-13 over Miami.

Arizona is harder to read. The Cardinals won 26-14 as a big underdog at the Chargers, then lost 31-7 at home to Seattle. Jacoby Brissett is a competent game manager at 5.7 yards per attempt; the offense averages 4.57 yards per play. The defense's cornerback room is disappearing: rookie Will Johnson is on season-ending IR, Max Melton missed Wednesday and Garrett Williams is limited. San Francisco held Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams out of Wednesday practice as rest days, and Mike Evans has a hip issue described as not serious.

Conditions
About 68°F, partly cloudy, NW wind 4 mph (nflweather, Sep 24). The NWS point forecast for Santa Clara was stale and was not used.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (49ers by 10): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+1.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (SF line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers

Impact: Arizona's cornerback room is the week's most exploitable injury situation, and it faces the league's most efficient passer. San Francisco's list is mostly veteran rest; the real questions are Evans and Aiyuk (SI listed Aiyuk as not practicing; 49ers Webzone's Wednesday list did not — unresolved).

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Arizona Cardinals · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-1, road 1-0

San Francisco 49ers · 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 1-0

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the line fell three points while the public bet San Francisco. Analysis: the reverse move is the market reading something — possibly the 49ers' injured receivers, possibly just a correction from an inflated look-ahead. The ratings do not agree with it: an FPI gap of 12.5 plus home field is a 14-point fair line.

This report does not follow FPI all the way. Two weeks is a small sample, Arizona's win at the Chargers happened, and division games compress. But the matchup that matters most — Purdy against a depleted secondary — points the same way as the ratings.

Opinion: 49ers by ten, a lean to cover 8.5. Total lean Over: San Francisco has scored 27 and 35 and Arizona's defense is getting thinner.

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1 · Game Overview

Kyler Murray effectively makes his Vikings debut. He was signed after Arizona released him, won the job over J.J. McCarthy, and lasted 11 snaps in Week 1 before a concussion. Carson Wentz then won both games — 39-22 over Green Bay and a 9-3 rain game at Chicago — with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Minnesota is 2-0 straight up and against the spread, and its defense (12.5 points per game, eight sacks, a 12% red-zone touchdown rate allowed per Covers) is why. The offense has been modest: 242.5 yards per game.

Tampa Bay is 0-2 and 0-10 against the spread over its last ten games, and both losses came late: 33-27 in Cincinnati and 23-19 at home to Cleveland after a lightning delay. Baker Mayfield has been sacked seven times and has one touchdown pass. The Buccaneers' run game has been good (5.0 yards per carry), but the pass rush has three sacks and two of its three edge players, Rueben Bain Jr. and Anthony Nelson, missed Wednesday.

Conditions
About 86°F, NNE wind 6-7 mph, 15% chance of isolated thunderstorms (nflweather Sep 24; NWS: mostly sunny, high near 87). Heat is a factor for a visiting team.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Vikings by 2): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (MIN line, points; bar scale 0–14)

Negative = Vikings was the underdog at that point.

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Impact: Minnesota's backfield is down to depth players with Jones and Mason out, and its punter is hurt. Tampa's edge rush is the more important absence: without Bain and Nelson, Murray gets a cleaner pocket in his first real start for the team.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Minnesota Vikings · 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 1-0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · home 0-1, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the ratings make this nearly a pick'em (FPI 2.5 in Minnesota's favor, minus home field). Analysis: the Vikings are the better team, but not by much on the road in September heat, and the Murray return is a real unknown: he has 11 snaps with this offense. Tampa Bay's historic run of ATS losses is a reminder that the market has been overrating it, not that it is due.

Script: two defense-first teams, a low first half, and a game decided by whichever quarterback avoids the sack-fumble. Tampa's missing edge rushers tilt that toward Minnesota.

Opinion: Vikings by two. No spread edge; small lean Over, because Murray adds a dimension the market's 42.5 was set without.

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1 · Game Overview

Two teams that have covered every game this season. Las Vegas is 2-0 under first-year coach Klint Kubiak, who was the Saints' offensive coordinator in 2024. Kirk Cousins has six touchdowns, the defense has eight sacks and five takeaways and allows 13.5 points per game, and the Raiders beat Miami and the Chargers comfortably. The caveat, which Covers makes plainly, is that neither opponent has shown anything. The Raiders' run game has not worked at all: 2.8 yards per carry, Ashton Jeanty at 3.4.

New Orleans has played two road games and covered both — a one-point overtime loss in Detroit and a 24-17 comeback win in Baltimore with two fourth-quarter touchdown drives. The Saints are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight. Tyler Shough has 662 passing yards and Chris Olave 268 receiving yards, and New Orleans plays at the league's fastest pace. This is the Saints' home opener, and it comes without rookie left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., who had ankle surgery, against a pass rush that already has eight sacks.

Conditions
Indoors. Weather not applicable. (One source listed a 4:05 kickoff; nfl.com and the Saints list 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 CT.)

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Saints by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (NO line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Las Vegas Raiders

New Orleans Saints

Impact: Bowers' return is the biggest positive change for either team: a first-team tight end joining a passing game with only 413 yards. Banks' absence is the biggest negative: Asim Richards takes over at left tackle for a team that has already allowed eight sacks.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Las Vegas Raiders · 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · home 1-0, road 1-0

New Orleans Saints · 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · home 0-0, road 1-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: the public is on the road underdog; the juice is moving toward the home favorite. Analysis: ratings put New Orleans about 2.4 points better before home field, so a fair line near 3.5-4 — the market's -3 at heavy juice is right there. Neither team's early record is fully trustworthy: Las Vegas has beaten two poor offenses, New Orleans has covered two games it lost or trailed late.

Script: New Orleans pushes tempo at home; Las Vegas tries to turn Richards into a turnover machine. If the Raiders' rush wins that battle early, the upset is live. If Shough has time, the Saints' pace wears on a defense that has yet to face a good offense.

Opinion: Saints by three, no edge at the number. Total a coin flip; the heavy public Under has already been priced.

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1 · Game Overview

The NFL's first regular-season game in Rio de Janeiro, at the Maracanã, with about 78,000 seats configured and Dallas as the designated home team. It is also the highest total on the board, and for good reason: both offenses rank in the top six in EPA per play. Lamar Jackson leads the league at 10.0 yards per attempt and is 2-0 against Dallas; Derrick Henry has 212 rushing yards and four touchdowns and has averaged 5.74 yards per carry in his career against the Cowboys. The Ravens lead the NFL in net yards per play (+2.1, per SI).

Dallas counters with the most efficient passing offense in this report. Dak Prescott is completing 73.8% with six touchdowns and one interception and just passed Tony Romo for the franchise touchdown record; CeeDee Lamb has 197 yards and three scores; the Cowboys convert 68.2% of third downs. The defense is a problem in every way: 5.0 yards per carry allowed, two sacks, 29th in opponent EPA per play, and four starters in the secondary and linebacker corps — Malik Hooker, P.J. Locke, Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown — missed Wednesday. Baltimore, for its part, blew a 17-9 lead at home to New Orleans last week in Jesse Minter's first loss as head coach.

Conditions
Forecast issued Sep 22 (Meteored): light rain or partly cloudy, 70-75°F, 40% chance of rain (~0.01 in), south wind 7-17 mph. Five days out — recheck. Local kickoff 5:25 PM.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Ravens by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (-0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (BAL line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Baltimore Ravens

Dallas Cowboys

Impact: Flowers matters more than most receivers: Baltimore scored four touchdowns on five drives with him in Week 1 and three on 16 without him (Ravens.com). Dallas' back seven is in crisis against the league's most dangerous dual-threat quarterback; practice-squad elevations are expected.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Baltimore Ravens · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 0-1, road 1-0

Dallas Cowboys · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)

5 · Advanced Analysis

Statistical comparison (2026 season, 2 games each; fixed scales)

Key matchups

6 · Visuals

Charts for this game appear alongside the data they describe: the Margin Meter, win-probability bar and spread-movement chart in section 2; the weekly margin trend in section 4; the statistical comparison in section 5. Every bar carries a labeled scale and units.

7 · Analyst Commentary

Fact: money is on Baltimore through the 3, and on the Under at a rising total. Analysis: ratings rate this close — FPI has Baltimore 1.1 points better on a neutral field — so the market's -3.5 is pricing the injuries: Dallas' secondary crisis more than Baltimore's receiver problem.

Script: two offenses that should both move the ball, one defense that cannot stop the run. Baltimore can shorten the game with Henry; Dallas has to keep pace through the air. A rain-slicked Maracanã and a long trip for both teams tilt modestly toward the running game and away from the Over.

Opinion: Ravens by three. That is a half-point short of the line, a thin lean to Dallas +3.5. Model total 51, a lean Under — the same side as the public, which is not ideal.

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1 · Game Overview

Sunday night brings the Rams on the league's strangest early schedule: a Thursday game in Melbourne, a Monday night home game, and now a Sunday night road trip to altitude on six days' rest. They are 1-1, having lost 27-7 to San Francisco in Australia and beaten the Giants 28-6 on Monday behind Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams (11 catches, 221 yards, two touchdowns this season). The defensive front is its own storyline: Myles Garrett, acquired from Cleveland, is on IR after knee surgery, and Aaron Donald — verified again this week, he un-retired on Aug 30 — made his 2026 debut against New York.

Denver is 1-1 after a 31-10 loss at Kansas City and a 20-13 home win over Jacksonville that required a fourth-quarter rally. Bo Nix has two touchdowns and two interceptions, the offense ranks 27th in EPA per play, and third downs (26.1%) have been a problem. Jaylen Waddle has become the top target (140 yards). Every Broncos running back is hurt: J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Marvin Mims Jr. limited, rookie Jonah Coleman not practicing.

Conditions
Sunny, high near 85°F, overnight low about 57°F, no precipitation (NWS, valid Sep 23). The kickoff-hour temperature is not published; expect the 70s at 6:20 PM MT.

2 · Odds & Expectations

All three numbers come from one predicted margin (Rams by 3): win probability reads that margin off the 13.5-point curve; cover chance reads the margin minus the spread (+0.5) off the same curve.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (LAR line, points; bar scale 0–14)

3 · Key Absences & Roster Impacts

Los Angeles Rams

Denver Broncos

Impact: Nacua, last season's receptions leader, is the one absence that changes the matchup; McVay called it "pre-hernia symptoms." The Rams held only a walkthrough Wednesday, so their participation is estimated. Denver's backfield being banged up matters against a Rams run defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

4 · Recent Performance & Trends

Los Angeles Rams · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-1, road 0-0

Denver Broncos · 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · home 1-0, road 0-1

Last-4 window: only two games exist for each team (current season only; no prior-season padding). The four-game window fills after Week 4.

Trend (final point margin by week; bar scale ±28 pts)