NFL 2026 · Week 3 in review · Thursday Sept 24 – Monday Sept 28
| Published Tuesday, Sept 29, 2026 16 games, Thursday to Monday 12 of 14 Sunday games decided by one score Our picks: 7-9 · the favorites: 8-8 | Games in this recap 16 of 16 played |
The Week in One Line
Four teams sent out a quarterback who wasn’t supposed to be starting, and all four won. Michael Penix Jr. in his first game back from a torn ACL, Marcus Mariota for the injured Jayden Daniels, Jameis Winston for the injured Jaxson Dart, and 38-year-old Case Keenum as Chicago’s third-stringer. Together they beat Green Bay, the defending champion Seahawks, Tennessee and Philadelphia.
It was a week built for chaos: twelve of fourteen Sunday games were decided by one score, tied for the most on a single day. It was not a good week for our forecasts. We went 7-9 picking winners, one game worse than simply taking the betting favorite in every game (8-8). The Atlanta and Chicago blowouts were our two worst calls, and the understudies are a big part of why.
The Scorecard
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite (games won out of 16, Week 3)
Five of our nine misses were games we called at 59% — our way of saying “barely better than a coin flip” — and four of those five were decided by four points or fewer. The two that stung were the blowouts: Atlanta by 21 at Green Bay, and Chicago by 20 over Philadelphia, both games we had going the other way at 67%.
Game by Game
Every game, in the order it was played: how it was won, who won it, and what we had called before kickoff.
At a glance
| Game | Final | We said | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers | ATL 35, GB 14 | GB 23-17 | Wrong |
| Chargers at Bills | LAC 16, BUF 24 | BUF 27-19 | Right |
| Panthers at Browns | CAR 18, CLE 21 | CAR 23-20 | Wrong |
| Jets at Lions | NYJ 24, DET 31 | DET 24-19 | Right |
| Texans at Colts | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU 23-20 | Wrong |
| Patriots at Jaguars | NE 6, JAX 35 | JAX 20-17 | Right |
| Chiefs at Dolphins | KC 24, MIA 10 | KC 27-16 | Right |
| Titans at Giants | TEN 7, NYG 12 | TEN 20-17 | Wrong |
| Bengals at Steelers | CIN 27, PIT 30 | CIN 23-19 | Wrong |
| Seahawks at Commanders | SEA 31, WAS 33 | SEA 24-16 | Wrong |
| Cardinals at 49ers | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF 30-20 | Right |
| Vikings at Buccaneers | MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN 23-21 | Right |
| Raiders at Saints | LV 35, NO 27 | NO 23-20 | Wrong |
| Ravens at Cowboys | BAL 34, DAL 31 | BAL 27-24 | Right |
| Rams at Broncos | LAR 26, DEN 30 | LAR 23-20 | Wrong |
| Eagles at Bears | PHI 7, CHI 27 | PHI 23-17 | Wrong |
How far off our margin was (points between our predicted margin and the real one, 0–30 scale; blue = right winner, orange = wrong winner)
Game 1 of 16 · Thursday · Lambeau Field
Falcons 35 at Packers 14
Michael Penix Jr. had not played a snap since his ACL surgery last November, and Atlanta arrived at Lambeau 0-2 after scoring three points against Carolina. Green Bay scored first, a 4-yard Jordan Love throw to Christian Watson. Then the Falcons scored the next 27 points.
This was the Bijan Robinson show. He carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns, broke a 55-yarder, and kept Green Bay’s defense on the field. Drake London was the other half of it: nine catches for 194 yards and a 68-yard strike. Penix did not have to be spectacular and wasn’t asked to be — 18 of 25 for 256 yards, a touchdown to Austin Hooper and one interception. The Falcons led 17-7 at the half and 27-7 in the third.
Love threw it 53 times for 312 yards and two touchdowns, rookie Matthew Golden caught five for 100, and none of it mattered much. The loss ended the Packers’ 13-game winning streak in home openers, and both teams sit at 1-2.
Who decided it
Bijan Robinson, ATL — 29 carries, 194 yards, 2 TD
Drake London, ATL — 9 catches, 194 yards
Michael Penix Jr., ATL — 18/25, 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in his first game back
Our call: Packers 23-17, 67% to win. Missed.
Game 2 of 16 · Sunday · Highmark Stadium
Chargers 16 at Bills 24
Buffalo turned the ball over five times — three fumbles and two interceptions — and still won. That tells you how good the Bills’ defense is right now, and how little the Chargers did with the gifts.
Los Angeles led 10-0 after one quarter and 13-10 in the third. Rookie safety Genesis Smith picked Josh Allen twice in the first half. Then C.J. Gardner-Johnson jumped a Justin Herbert throw in the red zone and returned it 41 yards to the 1, and the game flipped. Allen ran it in for Buffalo’s first lead, 17-13, and James Cook — 154 yards on 24 carries — iced it with a 3-yard score.
Allen threw no touchdowns and two picks but ran for two scores, making him the first quarterback of the Super Bowl era with multiple rushing touchdowns in three straight games. Greg Rousseau added two sacks, giving him six in three games, a Bills record for a season’s first three weeks. Buffalo is 3-0; the Chargers are 0-3.
Who decided it
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, BUF — the red-zone interception and 41-yard return that turned the game
James Cook, BUF — 24 carries, 154 yards, 1 TD
Greg Rousseau, BUF — 2 sacks
Our call: Bills 27-19, 72% to win. Got it.
Game 3 of 16 · Sunday · Browns home opener
Panthers 18 at Browns 21
The lead changed hands four times in the fourth quarter, and the last change came with a flag attached.
Carolina kicked its way into it — Ryan Fitzgerald made four field goals, including a 53-yarder — and when Bryce Young found John Metchie III for an 8-yard touchdown with 4:25 left, the Panthers led 18-13. On Cleveland’s answering drive, Akayleb Evans intercepted Deshaun Watson in the end zone. A roughing-the-passer penalty on Bobby Okereke wiped it out. Several Panthers were unhappy with how that flag was drawn. Two plays later Watson hit tight end Harold Fannin Jr. from 14 yards with 1:48 left, and a two-point catch by Denzel Boston made it 21-18. Ronnie Hickman intercepted Young on Carolina’s last possession.
Young threw for 291 yards but went 26 of 48 and took three sacks, one from rookie Mason Graham, who now has a sack in all three games. Fannin caught both Cleveland touchdowns. The costlier news for Carolina: cornerback Jaycee Horn is out indefinitely with a quad injury.
Who decided it
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE — 7 catches, 51 yards, 2 TD including the game-winner
Ryan Fitzgerald, CAR — 4 field goals, long of 53
Ronnie Hickman, CLE — the game-sealing interception
Our call: Panthers 23-20, 59% to win. Missed.
Game 4 of 16 · Sunday · Ford Field
Jets 24 at Lions 31
Detroit led 24-10 early in the fourth quarter and needed a strip-sack in the final minute to get out alive.
Geno Smith was nearly perfect — 31 of 37, 321 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions. Garrett Wilson caught 10 for 107 and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq added 105 yards and a score. The Jets tied it at 24 with 4:06 left on a Wilson 23-yard touchdown on fourth down that was ruled short on the field and overturned on replay.
Jahmyr Gibbs answered. He ran for 99 yards and two scores, caught seven passes, and took an 11-yard Jared Goff throw into the end zone with about two minutes left. Then safety Chuck Clark came on a blitz, sacked Smith and knocked the ball loose, and Jack Campbell fell on it. Goff has now thrown a touchdown in 26 straight games; Detroit is 2-1, the Jets 1-2.
Who decided it
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 99 rushing yards, 65 receiving, 3 total TD
Chuck Clark, DET — the strip-sack that ended it
Geno Smith, NYJ — 31/37, 321 yards, 3 TD
Our call: Lions 24-19, 65% to win. Got it.
Game 5 of 16 · Sunday · Lucas Oil Stadium
Texans 17 at Colts 19
The Colts had lost nine straight, the longest active skid in the league. They ended it on a field goal with 16 seconds left, kicked by a man who hurt his groin on the opening kickoff.
Spencer Shrader made four field goals, including a 58-yarder that tied his career long, and every point after halftime was a kick until the final two minutes. That is when Will Anderson Jr. took over for Houston: 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles, the last a strip-sack of Daniel Jones that set up Woody Marks’s 1-yard touchdown and a 17-16 Texans lead with 1:48 left.
Jones, who had lost two fumbles, drove the Colts back into range with help from a 20-yard throw to Laquon Treadwell, and Shrader did the rest. C.J. Stroud managed only 167 passing yards. Houston is 0-3 for the second straight season, and its five-game winning streak in the series is over.
Who decided it
Spencer Shrader, IND — 4 field goals including 58 yards and the winner, played through a groin injury
Will Anderson Jr., HOU — 2.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
Keenan Allen, IND — 6 catches, 63 yards, 1 TD
Our call: Texans 23-20, 59% to win. Missed.
Game 6 of 16 · Sunday · EverBank Stadium
Patriots 6 at Jaguars 35
Last season’s AFC champions got taken apart. Jacksonville scored touchdowns on all five trips to the red zone, forced three turnovers, and led 28-3 before the fourth quarter.
Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes to three receivers — Josh Cameron, Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington — and the defense handled the rest. DaVon Hamilton’s fumble recovery set up the first score. Travis Hunter picked off Drake Maye in the end zone just before halftime, his first career interception, to keep it 14-3. Late in the third, Jarrian Jones returned another Maye interception 32 yards, and the Jaguars scored twice in 18 seconds.
Maye was benched in the fourth for Tommy DeVito and has seven turnovers in three games; Mike Vrabel called his concern level very high. New England was already without A.J. Brown for another six to eight weeks. Jacksonville is 2-1 with a one-game lead in the AFC South.
Who decided it
Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 19/29, 182 yards, 3 TD
Travis Hunter, JAX — end-zone interception before halftime
Jarrian Jones, JAX — 32-yard interception return that broke it open
Our call: Jaguars 20-17, 59% to win. Right winner, but the margin was off by 26.
Game 7 of 16 · Sunday · Hard Rock Stadium
Chiefs 24 at Dolphins 10
Miami lost the game, and on its opening drive it lost De’Von Achane. The star running back hurt his knee after three carries; on Monday it was confirmed as a torn ACL, ending his season not long after he signed a four-year extension.
Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first two drives, both from Kenneth Walker III, and led 14-7 at the half. Miami hung around — rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez picked off Patrick Mahomes before the break and it was 17-10 midway through the fourth — but the Dolphins went 0 for 3 on fourth down. After the last failed try, Mahomes found Travis Kelce for an 11-yard touchdown with 2:55 left. George Karlaftis intercepted a Malik Willis pass that Chris Jones had tipped, and that was the game.
Mahomes went 20 of 24 for 246 yards and two scores, and now has 115 wins in his first 150 starts — tied with Tom Brady for the most by any quarterback through 150. The Chiefs are 3-0. The Dolphins are 0-3.
Who decided it
Patrick Mahomes, KC — 20/24, 246 yards, 2 TD
Kenneth Walker III, KC — 70 rushing yards, 2 TD (one rushing, one receiving)
George Karlaftis, KC — the game-sealing interception
Our call: Chiefs 27-16, 79% to win. Got it.
Game 8 of 16 · Sunday · MetLife Stadium
Titans 7 at Giants 12
A nor’easter blew through, the Giants scored no touchdowns, and they won anyway.
Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals and scored all 12 points; he is 6 for 6 to start his career. Jameis Winston, starting for the injured Jaxson Dart, went 14 of 22 for 118 yards and did the one thing that mattered in that weather — he did not turn it over. The Giants ran for 138 yards behind Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris and led 12-0 after three quarters.
Cam Ward got Tennessee a touchdown with 5:35 left and then drove the Titans to first-and-goal at the 7 in the final minute. Jevon Holland intercepted him in the end zone with 17 seconds left — Holland now has a pick in each of the first three weeks, the fifth Giant since 1960 to do it. The win came at a cost: Brian Burns hurt his right knee in the fourth quarter and is believed to have torn his ACL. Giants 2-1, Titans 0-3.
Who decided it
Dominic Zvada, NYG — 4 field goals, all 12 points
Jevon Holland, NYG — end-zone interception with 17 seconds left
Jeffery Simmons, TEN — 7 tackles, 1 sack
Our call: Titans 20-17, 59% to win. Missed.
Game 9 of 16 · Sunday · Acrisure Stadium
Bengals 27 at Steelers 30
Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow traded punches for 60 minutes, and the one who had the ball last lost it.
Aaron Rodgers hit Roman Wilson for a 38-yard touchdown inside the first two minutes and finished with 292 yards and three scores, the third a 6-yard throw to DK Metcalf. Joe Burrow was sharper — 28 of 37, 282 yards, three touchdowns, no picks — with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both over 90 yards. It was 17-17 at the half, and Burrow’s fourth-down touchdown to Mike Gesicki put Cincinnati up 27-24 in the fourth.
Pittsburgh answered, and Chris Boswell’s 33-yard field goal with 2:15 left made it 30-27. Burrow drove into Pittsburgh territory for a chance to answer. Derrick Harmon got to him, stripped the ball, and Sebastian Joseph-Day recovered with 44 seconds left. Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards in Mike McCarthy’s first AFC North game as Steelers coach. Both teams are 2-1.
Who decided it
Derrick Harmon, PIT — the strip-sack that ended it
Jaylen Warren, PIT — 17 carries, 127 yards
Joe Burrow, CIN — 28/37, 282 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
Our call: Bengals 23-19, 62% to win. Missed.
Game 10 of 16 · Sunday · Northwest Stadium
Seahawks 31 at Commanders 33
The champions had won 12 straight going back to last November. Marcus Mariota and a rookie linebacker ended it.
Sam Darnold was back from the glute injury that cost him Week 2 and threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns, two to Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who caught 10 passes for 128 yards. But Darnold also threw two interceptions, and the second one decided the game: with 3:57 left, Kain Medrano picked him off and ran it back 50 yards for a touchdown and a 33-24 lead.
Seattle answered with a Cooper Kupp touchdown at 2:51 to make it 33-31, and never saw the ball again. Rachaad White ran 19 yards on third-and-9, Mariota scrambled for 9 on third-and-7 with 1:15 left, and Washington knelt it out. Mariota, starting for the injured Jayden Daniels, threw three touchdowns without an interception, one a 30-yarder to Terry McLaurin. The win was shadowed by linebacker Leo Chenal, taken to a hospital with a neck injury in the second quarter.
Who decided it
Kain Medrano, WAS — 50-yard pick-six with 3:57 left
Marcus Mariota, WAS — 19/31, 183 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
Jaxson Smith-Njigba, SEA — 10 catches, 128 yards, 2 TD
Our call: Seahawks 24-16, 72% to win. Missed.
Game 11 of 16 · Sunday · Levi’s Stadium
Cardinals 30 at 49ers 36
San Francisco scored on a hook-and-ladder, watched a 17-point lead shrink to three, and needed George Kittle twice in the fourth quarter to get to 3-0.
The highlight came first: Mike Evans caught a short pass and flipped it to Deebo Samuel, who went 80 yards for the 50th scrimmage touchdown of his career. Brock Purdy threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns on only 27 attempts, and the 49ers led 23-6 in the third. Along the way they lost Evans (ribs) and Trent Williams (shoulder), both carted off, and Arizona scored 14 straight behind Jacoby Brissett, who completed 38 of 52.
Kittle caught touchdowns of 10 and 20 yards in the final nine minutes, the second making it 36-27 with 1:36 left. Arizona kicked a field goal and tried an onside kick; Samuel recovered it. The 49ers are alone atop the NFC West — but their receiver room was already thin, and Evans and Williams are now the two injuries to watch this week.
Who decided it
George Kittle, SF — 6 catches, 82 yards, 2 fourth-quarter TD
Brock Purdy, SF — 15/27, 297 yards, 4 TD
Deebo Samuel, SF — 80-yard hook-and-ladder TD and the onside-kick recovery
Our call: 49ers 30-20, 77% to win. Got it.
Game 12 of 16 · Sunday · Raymond James Stadium
Vikings 23 at Buccaneers 16
Minnesota is 3-0, and this one was won by special teams and a defense that piled up six sacks.
Myles Price returned a punt 86 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter, the Vikings’ first punt-return score since 2016. Will Reichard kicked field goals of 54, 56 and 43 yards and has now made 26 in a row. Kyler Murray, back from the concussion that cost him Week 2, was ordinary — 15 of 29 for 168 yards — but found Jordan Addison for a 41-yard touchdown before halftime.
The ending was the worst part for Tampa Bay. Just after the two-minute warning, Andrew Van Ginkel intercepted Mayfield, and Mayfield’s throwing thumb struck linebacker Blake Cashman on the play. It was dislocated; early reports put his absence at about three weeks. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels made his debut in relief. Minnesota’s worry is Justin Jefferson, who hurt his right ankle in the first quarter. Buccaneers 0-3.
Who decided it
Myles Price, MIN — 86-yard punt-return TD
Will Reichard, MIN — field goals of 54, 56 and 43 yards
Andrew Van Ginkel, MIN — the game-sealing interception
Our call: Vikings 23-21, 56% to win. Got it.
Game 13 of 16 · Sunday · Caesars Superdome, Saints home opener
Raiders 35 at Saints 27
New Orleans led by 11 late in the third quarter and then turned the ball over on four straight possessions.
Tyler Shough played well enough to win — 29 of 42, 255 yards, four touchdowns, two each to tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant — and the Saints scored twice in 54 seconds to lead 27-16. Mike Washington Jr. broke a 36-yard touchdown run to cut it to five, and then the Raiders’ defense took over. Malcolm Koonce strip-sacked Shough and Maxx Crosby recovered, and Kirk Cousins hit Cody White for the go-ahead touchdown. Koonce’s pressure produced a Hezekiah Masses interception, and Cousins found Brock Bowers to make it 35-27.
Then came two more fumbles, forced by Jeremy Chinn in the red zone and by Nakobe Dean. Bowers, in his first game of the season, caught 10 passes for 116 yards. The Raiders are 3-0 under Klint Kubiak and have not allowed a fourth-quarter point all season. The Saints lost Travis Etienne Jr. to a hamstring injury.
Who decided it
Malcolm Koonce, LV — strip-sack plus the pressure behind an interception, both in the fourth
Brock Bowers, LV — 10 catches, 116 yards, 1 TD in his season debut
Kirk Cousins, LV — 22/33, 248 yards, 3 TD
Our call: Saints 23-20, 59% to win. Missed.
Game 14 of 16 · Sunday · Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Ravens 34 vs. Cowboys 31
The NFL’s first game in Rio ended with a 56-yard field goal as time expired, one of the wildest finishes of the young season.
Dallas led 10-0, Baltimore scored 17 straight, and KaVontae Turpin’s 9-yard touchdown run put the Cowboys back in front 28-24 with 9:42 left. Lamar Jackson answered with a 2-yard touchdown to Matthew Hibner with 1:30 left. Dallas drove to first-and-goal at the 2 on a pass interference call, went backward on a false start, and settled for Brandon Aubrey’s 23-yard tying kick with seven seconds on the clock.
Seven seconds was enough. Jackson hit Zay Flowers for 27 yards to the Dallas 38, called timeout with one second left, and Tyler Loop drilled it from 56. Jackson finished 15 of 20 with two touchdowns and 50 rushing yards. Derrick Henry scored twice and passed Eric Dickerson for ninth on the career rushing list. CeeDee Lamb had 112 yards for Dallas. Baltimore lost both of its centers to injury.
Who decided it
Tyler Loop, BAL — 56-yard game-winner as time expired
Lamar Jackson, BAL — 15/20, 186 yards, 2 TD, 50 rushing yards
Derrick Henry, BAL — 26 carries, 89 yards, 2 TD, and a career milestone
Our call: Ravens 27-24, 59% to win. Got it.
Game 15 of 16 · Sunday Night Football · Empower Field at Mile High
Rams 26 at Broncos 30
The Rams led 16-0 at halftime. There were four lead changes in the last nine minutes. Denver won on a 1-yard Bo Nix run with 47 seconds left — after a flag the Rams will be arguing about all week.
Denver tied it with two third-quarter touchdowns, each with a two-point conversion. Then it turned into a shootout of big plays: Talanoa Hufanga’s 66-yard pick-six put the Broncos up 23-19, and Matthew Stafford answered 71 seconds later with a 48-yard touchdown to Konata Mumpfield. Stafford threw 55 times for 390 yards; Davante Adams caught seven for 137.
On Denver’s winning drive, Rams cornerback Josh Wallace intercepted Nix on third-and-goal and had it wiped out by pass interference — a call the broadcast’s rules analyst questioned, suggesting the receiver pulled Wallace down. An illegal-hands penalty put the Broncos at the 2, and Nix ran it in. The Rams spiked it at the 14 with two seconds left, were flagged for a false start, and Hufanga intercepted Stafford in the end zone for his second pick of the night.
Who decided it
Talanoa Hufanga, DEN — 2 INT including a 66-yard pick-six, plus a sack
Davante Adams, LAR — 7 catches, 137 yards
Bo Nix, DEN — 2 TD passes and the winning 1-yard run
Our call: Rams 23-20, 59% to win. Missed.
Game 16 of 16 · Monday Night Football · Soldier Field
Eagles 7 at Bears 27
Chicago’s third-string quarterback, 38 years old and making his first start since Christmas Eve 2023, beat the Eagles by 20.
With Caleb Williams out and Tyson Bagent in the concussion protocol, Case Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, and his 1-yard sneak in the fourth made him the oldest Bear ever to score a rushing touchdown. Kalif Raymond caught six for 90, including a 41-yard score, and rookie Luther Burden III caught the other.
The game turned in the second quarter, when Jalen Hurts went to the medical tent for a concussion check. Andy Dalton came in, and on third-and-goal threw an interception in the end zone to rookie safety Dillon Thieneman. Hurts was cleared and scored on a sneak to end the half at 10-7, but Philadelphia went three-and-out on its first three drives of the second half and finished with seven points. The Bears forced three turnovers; the Eagles are now minus-5 in turnover differential. Both teams are 2-1.
Who decided it
Case Keenum, CHI — 24/34, 247 yards, 2 TD, plus a rushing TD
Kalif Raymond, CHI — 6 catches, 90 yards, 41-yard TD
Dillon Thieneman, CHI — end-zone interception, his first career pick
Our call: Eagles 23-17, 67% to win. Missed.
What We Got Wrong
Falcons 35, Packers 14. Our worst miss, 27 points of margin. We priced Atlanta off an 0-2 start that came with other quarterbacks under center, and we barely moved for Penix. A starting-quarterback change is supposed to be the biggest thing a forecast accounts for. Here it sat almost exactly on the betting line and missed what Bijan Robinson and Drake London would do to Green Bay.
Bears 27, Eagles 7. We had Philadelphia by six. Nobody forecast Hurts in the medical tent at the worst moment or Dalton throwing an end-zone interception, but a road team without tight end Dallas Goedert and guard Landon Dickerson was thinner than its record said. We didn’t see that.
Titans at Giants. Our only outright underdog pick of the week, and it lost 12-7 in a rainstorm. We are 0-4 on those this season, and those four games are the entire difference between our record and the favorites’.
The coin flips. Panthers-Browns, Texans-Colts, Raiders-Saints, Rams-Broncos and Bengals-Steelers were all called at 59–62%, and four were decided by four points or fewer — by a roughing flag, a 16-second field goal, four straight Saints turnovers and a disputed interference call. We said they were close. They were. There’s no lesson in them beyond that.
What We Got Right
Bills 24, Chargers 16 — we said Buffalo by 8; it won by 8. Ravens 34, Cowboys 31 — we said Baltimore by 3; it won by 3, on the last snap in Rio. Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10 and Lions 31, Jets 24 both landed within a few points of our number.
Honest footnote: each of those was also the betting favorite by a similar margin, so the market deserves most of the credit. Our one right winner that went badly wrong on the margin was Jacksonville, where we expected a field-goal game and got a 35-6 rout.
The Week That Was
The understudies went 4-0. Penix, Mariota, Winston and Keenum all won, and none was his team’s opening-day starter. Mariota and Keenum beat two of the NFC’s best, and Keenum did it at 38.
Five teams are 3-0: Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Minnesota and Las Vegas. The Raiders are the surprise of September under first-year coach Klint Kubiak, and they haven’t allowed a fourth-quarter point all season.
Five teams are 0-3: Houston, Miami, Tennessee, the Chargers and Tampa Bay. Houston is 0-3 for the second straight year; Tampa Bay now has to survive without Baker Mayfield for about three weeks.
Streaks ended. Seattle’s 12-game winning run, dating to last November, died in Washington. The Colts’ nine-game losing run ended on a kick with 16 seconds left. Green Bay’s 13-game winning streak in home openers is over.
The finishes. A 56-yard walk-off in Rio. A Broncos rally from 16 down on Sunday night, their second double-digit second-half comeback in two weeks. A Jevon Holland end-zone pick with 17 seconds left. A Chuck Clark strip-sack in the final minute. A Derrick Harmon strip-sack in the final minute. It was that kind of Sunday.
Injuries That Change Things
| Player | Injury & status | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| De’Von Achane, MIA RB | Torn ACL — out for the season | Miami, already 0-3, loses its most dangerous player. The Dolphins visit 3-0 Minnesota next. |
| Brian Burns, NYG OLB | Right knee — believed to be a torn ACL (MRI pending when reported) | The Giants’ best pass rusher. Arizona visits Sunday. |
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Dislocated right thumb — about three weeks | An 0-3 team hosting Green Bay with an undrafted rookie or a backup under center. |
| Jaycee Horn, CAR CB | Quad — out indefinitely | Carolina’s top corner, with Detroit visiting Sunday night. |
| Mike Evans, SF WR & Trent Williams, SF LT | Ribs; shoulder — both carted off | A thin receiver room gets thinner, and losing Williams hurts everything. Denver visits. |
| Justin Jefferson, MIN WR | Right ankle — hurt in the first quarter | Watch the practice reports; Minnesota hosts Miami. |
| Leo Chenal, WAS LB | Neck — taken to a hospital | Reported as a serious injury; no timeline yet. |
| Travis Etienne Jr., NO RB | Hamstring | Left the Raiders game after 57 yards. |
Statuses as reported Sunday through Monday. Wednesday’s practice reports will settle several of these before Thursday’s preview.
The Season So Far
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite, season (games won out of 48, Weeks 1–3)
Three weeks in, we are 27-21 picking winners. Just taking the favorite every time would be 31-17. The whole gap is our four outright underdog picks, and all four lost. Beating the betting market is hard, and so far we haven’t. We will keep publishing the score either way.
Not betting advice. The forecasts graded here are a model’s estimates and will be wrong in both directions; they are published so they can be scored, and this page is the scoring.