The Unbeaten and the Winless

NFL 2026  ·  Week 4  ·  Thursday Oct 1 – Wednesday Oct 7

Sixteen games kick off between tonight and Monday night, and every one has its own report below. The slate was pulled from nfl.com, confirmed against the league’s Week 4 viewing guide and the nflverse schedule feed, filtered to the seven-day window, and checked by team: all 32 teams play, none is on bye. The reports were counted against that list before delivery.

Five teams are 3-0 (Buffalo, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minnesota, San Francisco) and five are 0-3 (Miami, Tennessee, Houston, the Chargers, Tampa Bay). Two of the unbeaten meet in Las Vegas; three of the winless are double-digit or near-touchdown underdogs. Up to five teams will start a quarterback who was not their Week 1 starter, so each game still opens with the quarterback strip.

This week’s signature: the Margin Meter. Every game carries one bar that shows the forecast margin against the market’s line. The win probability and cover chance in each game are both read off that one forecast margin, so where the bar lands is the whole prediction.

The three must-watch games

Two more worth your time: Rams at Eagles, where Philadelphia may be missing DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert on a short week after being held to seven points; and Steelers at Browns tonight, where the winner leaves alone in first place in a four-way-tied AFC North.

Contents — 16 games

Schedule difficulty — schedule already played

Each team is rated on the strength of the opponents it has already faced. The primary input is opponent SRS (Pro Football Reference’s schedule-adjusted average margin); opponent points for and against show the scoring profile behind it, and opponent record is kept as a check. Ranked 1 (hardest) to 32, split into thirds: the top 11 are hard, the next 10 medium, the last 11 easy.

Tiers are relative, not absolute: a “hard” schedule in a flat year is easier than one in a top-heavy year. Provisional: every team has played three games, so a single blowout moves a rating several points; read these as rough until Week 5. Recent form cannot be separated from season form yet, so it is folded into opponent record.

Where the components disagree. Cleveland’s opponents are 3-6 but rate as the fourth-hardest set, because Jacksonville’s +18.9 SRS dominates the average. Kansas City’s opponents are 3-6 with a neutral SRS: Denver and Indianapolis lost close games to the Chiefs and have played well otherwise. Las Vegas’ 3-0 came against opponents who are a combined 1-8 — record and rating agree, and both say the Raiders have not been tested.

How to read the numbers

Each forecast is a predicted score built from efficiency (EPA per play and success rate, both directions), scoring pace, personnel, venue, weather and rest, with the betting line weighed as an input. The win probability and the cover chance are both read off the predicted margin, assuming final margins scatter around a forecast with a standard deviation of about 13.5 points; nothing is stated above 90%. Odds are from ScoresAndOdds, taken in one pass at 4:10 AM PT Thursday.

1 · The Setup

First place in the AFC North, on a Thursday, between two first-year head coaches who inherited opposite rosters.

2 · Why This Game Matters

All four AFC North teams are 2-1, so the winner leaves Thursday night alone in first place. For Cleveland that would be new: the Browns have not held sole possession of the division lead since 2014. Todd Monken, in his first year, said it plainly this week: “We’re playing for first place.”

It is also the first Steelers–Browns game without Mike Tomlin on the Pittsburgh sideline since 2007. Mike McCarthy took over a veteran roster built to win now — Rodgers at 42, Jalen Ramsey, Michael Pittman Jr., Jamel Dean — while Monken took over the league’s youngest lineup after Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. Old roster against young one, short week, rivalry game. Pittsburgh leads the series 83-65-1, but the last meeting, in December, went to Cleveland 13-6.

3 · The Storylines

Rodgers against the defense that never lets anyone throw. Rodgers just outdueled Joe Burrow, three touchdown passes in a 30-27 win. Cleveland has held 48 straight opponents under 300 passing yards. Something has to give, and the Browns’ second-year tackle Mason Graham already has four sacks.

Watson’s second act. Watson opened with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville and has since led two late rallies, at Tampa and against Carolina. He has looked like a functional NFL quarterback for the first time in years. Rookie Denzel Boston leads all rookie receivers with 195 yards.

Ramsey in a cast. Jalen Ramsey broke his wrist against Cincinnati and intends to play anyway. “I’ve got to be able to protect it.” Pittsburgh’s corner room got thinner on Wednesday, when Joey Porter Jr. was traded to Dallas.

A rookie left tackle meets T.J. Watt. Spencer Fano, the No. 9 overall pick, draws Watt on national television, with both Jenkinses out on the interior and Dawand Jones across from Alex Highsmith.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The injuries cut both ways. Pittsburgh is short at corner: Porter traded, Ramsey playing with a broken wrist, Brandin Echols just cleared from a concussion. Rico Dowdle is out, so Jaylen Warren, who ran for 127 yards last week, carries the load. Cleveland loses two interior linemen, which matters most because Watt and Cam Heyward live on the interior and the edge simultaneously. Luke Wypler is expected at center.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report (final game designations for Thursday); Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Both offenses have been below average: Pittsburgh at −0.14 EPA per play, Cleveland at −0.05. The defenses are where the separation is. Cleveland’s is one of the league’s three best by SRS (+12.5 defensive rating), while Pittsburgh’s has bled (−8.2). Pittsburgh’s offense has two faces, 3.5 yards per play and 2-of-12 on third down at New England, then 411 yards and 7-of-12 on third down against Cincinnati. Cleveland cannot run (under 90 yards a game) and has allowed nine sacks. Kicker Andre Szmyt has made 20 straight field goals, which matters in a game priced at 38.5.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Cleveland has won seven straight Thursday games and nine straight Thursday home games. Pittsburgh is 0-9 in Thursday division road games. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Fano and the patched Browns line against Watt and Heyward. Cleveland’s offense works only when Watson has time to extend plays late. With both Jenkinses out and a rookie at left tackle, Pittsburgh can rush four and still collapse the pocket. Watch the first three Cleveland third downs: if Watson is getting rid of the ball before Watt arrives, the Browns are fine. If Fano needs a tight end beside him to survive, Cleveland’s offense shrinks to Szmyt’s leg.

Browns 20, Steelers 17

Cleveland’s defense is better than anything Pittsburgh’s offense has solved, and the Steelers’ secondary is held together with a cast and a trade. The Watt matchup keeps it close and the late rain keeps it low. Browns by a field goal.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast disagrees with the line: it has Browns winning outright, 5.5 points from the market.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The first London game of 2026, and the quarterback question will not be answered until Friday.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Two 1-2 teams, each coming off a win that felt bigger than one game. Washington ended Seattle’s 12-game winning streak with a backup quarterback and a 50-yard pick-six. Indianapolis beat Houston on a 53-yard field goal with 16 seconds left after losing its first two. A 2-2 team in early October is alive; a 1-3 team is planning for next year.

This is Washington’s first London game since a 2016 tie at Wembley; the franchise is 0-2-1 outside the U.S. Indianapolis won in Berlin last season. For the Colts it is also the start of a stretch with one home game until November 8.

3 · The Storylines

Whose elbow, whose start. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow at Dallas, chose not to have surgery until after the season, and flew to London. Dan Quinn: “We won’t put him out there” before he is ready. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns without an interception against the defending champions and was named FedEx Air & Ground Player of the Week. Washington may not lose much either way.

Daniel Jones, turnover machine. Jones has five turnovers in three games, the most in the league, and Indianapolis has not forced one since Week 1. He was 5-3-1 against Washington as a Giant.

Sonny Styles arrives. Washington’s rookie linebacker was NFC Defensive Player of the Week, and fellow linebacker Kain Medrano’s pick-six decided last Sunday. A Washington defense that lost two starters this week still has the league’s third-best run defense by yards (82 a game).

Buckner after neck surgery. DeForest Buckner has three sacks in three games back from neck surgery — one of the few things going right for a Colts defense ranked last in yards allowed.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Washington is thin in the secondary and up front: guard Sam Cosmi and safety Nick Cross are already ruled out, linebacker Leo Chenal went to IR, and ten players were limited in London. Rachaad White did not practice. Indianapolis is comparatively healthy; its limited players (Jonathan Taylor, Keenan Allen, Charvarius Ward) were rest days.

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Neither defense has been good: Indianapolis allows +0.12 EPA per play (fifth-worst), Washington +0.07. The Colts’ offense lives on Taylor (258 yards, four touchdowns) and runs into a Washington front that has been stout against the run but weak against the pass (+0.24 EPA per dropback allowed). Washington’s blitz rate is fourth in the league, and the turnover differential is the cleanest split between these teams: Washington +2, Indianapolis −5.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Indianapolis has won four of the last five meetings, but Washington won the most recent, 17-16 in 2022. The series is 21-11 Colts by Washington’s count (another source has 21-13). Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Jones against the blitz. Washington sends extra rushers more than almost anyone, and Jones has fumbled twice and thrown three interceptions. The Colts will want to lean on Taylor into a front that has held up; if they fall behind and Jones has to throw into pressure, this is where the game turns. Count Washington blitzes on second-and-long.

Commanders 24, Colts 23

The market moved five points on the assumption Daniels sits. Mariota just beat the champions, the Colts’ defense is the worst in the league by yards, and Indianapolis gives the ball away. Washington, narrowly, either way at quarterback.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast disagrees with the line: it has Commanders winning outright, 4.5 points from the market.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Derrick Henry against the team he carried for eight years, and a Titans offense that has scored 37 points all season.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Baltimore is 2-1 in a four-way AFC North tie and needs to bank the games it should win. Tennessee is 0-3 under Robert Saleh, has been booed at home, and is playing its final season at Nissan Stadium with very little to show for it. The stakes are lopsided. The storyline is not.

Henry leads the NFL with six rushing touchdowns and just passed Eric Dickerson on the career list. Jeffery Simmons had a two-word scouting report this week: “Hit him.”

3 · The Storylines

Henry’s return. Eight seasons in Tennessee, a rushing title, and now his first game against the Titans since leaving. He had 89 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries in Rio and will not be short of motivation.

The Ravens’ fourth center in three weeks. Danny Pinter tore a patellar tendon in camp; Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic are now both out long-term. First-round rookie Vega Ioane, a right guard with 17 college snaps at center, is expected to snap the ball in the rain against Simmons.

Cam Ward under siege. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick has a new head coach, a new coordinator in Brian Daboll, a rookie No. 4 pick at receiver in Carnell Tate, and a team that has scored 37 points in three games. Tennessee managed one first down in the first half at the Giants.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Tennessee’s two top backs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, both missed Wednesday, and two rookie guards are on IR. That leaves an offense that already could not move with no reliable ground game. Baltimore’s list is longer but softer: Jackson, Zay Flowers, Marlon Humphrey and left tackle Ronnie Stanley were all limited and trending toward playing. The center position is the real hole.

Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Baltimore’s offense is fourth in EPA per play (+0.17) and second in success rate (52.4%). Tennessee’s sits at −0.08 and is bottom-three in yards (249 a game) and points (12.3). The Ravens’ defense is the soft spot — slightly worse than average by EPA — but Tennessee has not shown it can punish anyone. By SRS this is the widest gap on the slate: Baltimore +4.1, Tennessee −16.1, the league’s worst.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Baltimore leads the series 14-13 including playoffs and won the last meeting, 24-16 in London in 2023. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Vega Ioane against Jeffery Simmons. Everything Baltimore does starts with the snap. A converted guard at center in the rain, facing one of the league’s best interior linemen, is the one place Tennessee has an edge. Watch for low or late snaps and whether Baltimore keeps a back in to help. If Ioane holds up through the first quarter, Henry takes over.

Ravens 27, Titans 13

Tennessee cannot score, has no healthy running backs, and is walking into the rain against an angry Derrick Henry. Baltimore wins comfortably; the center problem keeps it from being a rout.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 2.5 points beyond the line, toward Ravens.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The Bills are 3-0 under a first-year coach. The quarterback who finished second in last year’s MVP vote was benched last Sunday.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Buffalo’s first division game, and a chance to go two games clear of the rest of the AFC East before October is a week old. Joe Brady is the first Bills head coach to start 3-0, and Allen is tied with Andre Reed and Thurman Thomas for the franchise touchdown record (87).

New England came within one game of a championship last season, went 14-3, and has now lost twice by a combined 32 points. Mike Vrabel says “Drake’s our quarterback.” The question is what that quarterback has become.

3 · The Storylines

What happened to Drake Maye. One touchdown, six interceptions, nine sacks, and a fourth-quarter benching for Tommy DeVito. One of last week’s interceptions “slipped out of his right hand.” Maye says the shoulder does not affect his decisions; WEEI reported friction with Vrabel and both denied it.

Buffalo winning ugly. The Bills turned it over five times against the Chargers and still won by eight. Teams with five or more turnovers were 1-56-1 since 2000. James Cook ran for 154 yards; that is the version of Buffalo that travels.

Leonhard’s respect. Bills defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard on Maye: “Great players are eventually going to come out the other side.” Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 27th in yards allowed, so this is the week that could start.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

New England is missing the receiver it built around: A.J. Brown is on IR with a high ankle sprain. Right tackle Morgan Moses, corner Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore all missed Wednesday, and Gonzalez is the one that matters most against Allen. Buffalo’s top corner, Christian Benford, is in a boot, so rookie Davison Igbinosun is next up opposite a passing game that has struggled to exploit anyone.

New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Buffalo scores 33.7 points a game, the most in football, with +0.22 EPA per play on offense. Its defense gives a lot back: +0.09 EPA per play and 254 passing yards a game. New England is the mirror: the 31st-ranked scoring offense (12.0) and a defense that ranks second against the pass and carries a +13.0 defensive SRS, the second-best in the league. The Patriots’ turnover differential is −5.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

New England leads the series 80-52-1, its most wins against any opponent, and won in Orchard Park last October before Buffalo came back from 21 down to win the December rematch. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Maye’s first read against the Bills’ zone. New England’s defense will keep this inside two scores. The question is whether Maye can produce anything without Brown and with a backup right tackle. Watch where his early throws go: if he is getting to his second read and throwing on time, the shoulder is fine and the Patriots can steal it. If he is hitching and holding, the turnovers continue.

Bills 27, Patriots 20

Buffalo is the more complete team and plays at home; New England’s defense is real but its offense has not shown it can score 20. Bills by a touchdown, with the Patriots’ defense keeping it honest.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Chicago has not said who will play quarterback. Its 38-year-old third-stringer just beat the Eagles.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Chicago is 2-1 and a game behind unbeaten Minnesota in the NFC North; this is the kind of home game a playoff team banks, whoever is under center. The Jets are 1-2 after a 24-point fourth-quarter rally fell short in Detroit, and Aaron Glenn’s second year depends on getting games like this one to break their way.

The Bears are on a short week after Monday night. The Jets have had the normal six days.

3 · The Storylines

Case Keenum, again. Keenum had not played since 2023. On Monday night he went 24-of-34 for 247 yards, two touchdowns and a rushing score, took no sacks, and the Bears held the ball for almost 37 minutes against Philadelphia. Tyson Bagent, cleared from a concussion, was the training-camp No. 2 and is ESPN’s pick to start. Johnson has said only that he has three quarterbacks.

Geno’s quiet excellence. Smith is 77-of-102 with four touchdowns and no interceptions. He is doing it with a run game that has collapsed (67 and 58 yards the last two weeks) and a line that allowed nine sacks over those games. The one mistake that mattered — a fumble at the Detroit 28 with 51 seconds left — is the one Glenn mentioned.

Rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Seven catches for 105 yards and his first touchdown in Detroit. With Mason Taylor out, Sadiq is now the primary tight end.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Jets lost five starters to “week-to-week” designations on Wednesday: Breece Hall, guard Dylan Parham, tight end Mason Taylor, receiver Adonai Mitchell and linebacker Francisco Mauigoa. Isaiah Davis gets the backfield. Chicago’s left tackle Braxton Jones is week-to-week and corner Kyler Gordon remains out, so whichever Bears quarterback starts does so with a backup protecting his blind side.

New York Jets

Chicago Bears

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Chicago is the stronger team on every measure the season has produced: +13.3 SRS (third in the league) against the Jets’ −10.4, and a net EPA of +0.17 against +0.06. The Bears scored 59 in Carolina with Williams and 27 against Philadelphia with Keenum; the outlier is the 9-3 rain game against Minnesota. The Jets pass well (+0.22 EPA per dropback) and run badly (−0.25 per rush), which makes the missing linemen the story.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

The teams last met in 2022 (Jets 31-10). Before that Chicago had won five straight in the series; the last game in Chicago, in 2018, went to the Bears 24-10. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The Jets’ pass protection. Smith has been nearly perfect when he has time. With Parham out, no Hall to keep the defense honest and nine sacks allowed in two weeks, the Bears can sit on the pass. If New York keeps Smith clean, this is a coin flip; if the Bears get home on early downs, the Jets have nothing else.

Bears 24, Jets 20

Chicago’s quarterback uncertainty is real, but the Bears showed on Monday that the scheme travels with whoever plays, and the Jets are missing too many pieces up front. Bears, by less than the early number suggested.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The best team in football by adjusted margin goes to the one stadium where Trevor Lawrence has never won.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Jacksonville leads the AFC South and has the league’s best SRS (+18.9) after blowouts of Cleveland and New England. Cincinnati is in a four-way AFC North tie and lost a game it should have won in Pittsburgh. The winner is 3-1; the loser is just another team in a crowded middle.

The history is lopsided. Cincinnati has won four straight in the series, including last September’s 31-27 game in which Burrow injured his toe. Lawrence has faced the Bengals three times and never beaten them — the only team he has played that often without a win.

3 · The Storylines

Travis Hunter, cornerback. The No. 2 overall pick had his first career interception against New England and played 42 snaps at corner. With three Jaguars corners on the injury report, he may be asked to shadow Ja’Marr Chase.

Liam Coen’s balance. Jacksonville has run 86 times and passed 81. Bhayshul Tuten has 204 yards and 21 forced missed tackles; Parker Washington has 221 receiving yards. Lawrence looks comfortable for the first time in two years.

A pass rush that does not blitz. Cincinnati blitzes less than any team in football and still pressures at the fifth-highest rate (39.7%). Lawrence is pressured on 34% of his dropbacks.

Burrow’s ball security. Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack with 44 seconds left cost Cincinnati the Pittsburgh game. Jacksonville’s defense allows the fewest points in football.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Cincinnati is missing starting guard Dalton Risner and defensive tackle B.J. Hill, and both safeties Bryan Cook and Jordan Battle were limited with Kyle Dugger out. That is a secondary with three question marks facing an offense with a 50.9% success rate. Jacksonville’s worry is at corner, where Montaric Brown and Christian Braswell were limited; only Hunter and Jourdan Lewis are fully healthy.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Jacksonville is second in net EPA (+0.25 per play): +0.15 on offense, −0.11 on defense. Cincinnati is solid but ordinary at +0.11, with a pass offense (+0.11 per dropback) that has not been as dangerous as its reputation. The Jaguars have not allowed a 75-yard rusher in 20 straight games, so Cincinnati will have to throw, into a defense that has allowed 36 points all season.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Jacksonville’s last win in the series was in 2019. Cincinnati’s schedule ranks among the easiest third so far (Tampa, Houston, Pittsburgh); Jacksonville’s is in the hardest third. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Chase against whoever Jacksonville can field at corner. The Jaguars’ defense is the best in the league by points allowed, but its corner depth is the weak spot. Watch whether Hunter travels with Chase. If he does and holds, Cincinnati’s offense has no second answer with its line short a guard. If Chase gets free off the injured corners, Burrow wins another shootout in this series.

Jaguars 27, Bengals 24

The numbers and the schedule say Jacksonville is simply the better team, and the Bengals’ secondary is a mess. History says Lawrence loses here. Take the numbers: Jaguars by a field goal.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast disagrees with the line: it has Jaguars winning outright, 5.5 points from the market.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Houston is 0-3 for the second straight year. Dallas’s defense has two sacks and no interceptions.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Texans were a popular AFC pick and are two games behind Jacksonville. Last year’s team also started 0-3 and finished 12-5, but only seven teams have ever made the playoffs after an 0-3 start, and only one after 0-4. This is close to a season-defining game for DeMeco Ryans, who admitted he mismanaged the clock on Indianapolis’ winning drive.

Dallas is 1-2 coming back from Rio, where it lost 34-31 to Baltimore. Brian Schottenheimer graded his own performance: “It was an F.” The Cowboys are the first team to travel more than 5,000 miles for a game without extra rest afterward.

3 · The Storylines

Joey Porter Jr., one day in. Dallas traded a 2028 second-round pick for the Steelers corner on Wednesday. Whether he plays Sunday is unknown; that the Cowboys needed him is not — they rank last in the league in EPA allowed per play.

Stroud’s confidence. Stroud has no interceptions but has been sacked ten times, and the Texans have scored 18 points a game. Nico Collins is back at practice from a hamstring injury, which changes what Houston can do.

The Lamb–Pickens problem. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined for 14 catches and 194 yards in Rio. Dallas is fourth in offensive EPA per play.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Houston’s defense, the best in the league in 2025, is short this week: linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair missed Wednesday and Will Anderson Jr. was limited with a new ankle problem. Dallas’s secondary remains a triage ward — corners Cobie Durant and Shavon Revel Jr. did not practice and safety Malik Hooker is playing through a forearm fracture.

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

This is two teams with opposite flaws. Dallas’s offense has +0.20 EPA per play and a 50% success rate; its defense allows +0.19 and 6.0 yards a play, last in the league. Houston’s defense is still above average (37.6% success rate allowed, third-best in the league), while its offense sits at −0.08 with 84.7 rushing yards a game. Dallas has two sacks all season; Stroud has been sacked ten times. One of those numbers is going to move.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Houston won the last meeting 34-10 in 2024. Dallas is 1-2 all-time in Houston. Dallas games have gone over the total in all three weeks. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Stroud’s protection against a pass rush that has not arrived. Houston’s line has allowed ten sacks to defenses that can rush. Dallas cannot. If Stroud has time against a secondary missing two corners, Collins and the Texans’ receivers should find room for the first time all season. If Dallas somehow generates pressure, Houston has no running game to fall back on.

Texans 24, Cowboys 23

Dallas has the better quarterback and the better offense, but the defense is the worst in football and the trip home from Brazil was not kind. Houston, at home, by a point — this is close to a coin flip.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 2 points short of the line, away from Texans.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The Giants are 2-1 with 46 points. Their starter is gone for the season and the man they traded for arrived Monday.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Giants lead the NFC East at 2-1 under John Harbaugh, which is more than anyone expected and more than the offense deserves: no team with two wins has scored fewer points. Last week’s 12-7 win over Tennessee came on four field goals. Arizona, under first-year coach Mike LaFleur, is 1-2 but rallied from three scores down in San Francisco last week before losing 36-30.

The Giants also lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL. They will honor the 1986 championship team at halftime.

3 · The Storylines

McCarthy’s new home. Minnesota traded J.J. McCarthy to the Giants on Monday for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Harbaugh confirmed Winston starts and said the protections are “a work in progress” — the clearest sign McCarthy is not ready.

Jeremiyah Love, the centerpiece. The No. 3 overall pick had 21 carries for 90 yards and a receiving touchdown in San Francisco after an early ankle scare. He is averaging 3.9 yards a carry, but the Giants allow 4.7, 25th in the league.

Abdul Carter’s turn. With Burns gone, Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux are the edge rush. Thibodeaux has no sacks on 91 rush snaps. Brissett’s numbers under pressure are the worst thing about Arizona’s offense.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Giants’ season changed in six days: Dart (MCL, PCL, meniscus) and Burns (ACL) are out for the season, and left tackle Andrew Thomas has been on the injury report three straight weeks and missed Wednesday. Arizona’s veterans took rest days; the one to watch is safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who has not practiced since last Thursday.

Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Neither team is good by the numbers: Arizona’s net EPA is −0.10, the Giants’ −0.16. The interesting split is Arizona’s pass defense, which has allowed +0.40 EPA per dropback, one of the worst figures in the league. The Giants have not been able to take advantage of anyone: 182 and 238 total yards in the last two games, 7-of-27 on third down. Arizona has one turnover in three games.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Arizona has won its last three games at MetLife and four of the last five meetings. The Giants won the most recent, 31-28 in 2023. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Arizona’s pass defense against Winston’s arm. Winston has the league’s worst completion rate (51%), but he will throw deep, and Arizona’s secondary is the most generous on this slate. If the Giants hit two explosive passes, their defense can win the rest. If Winston’s misses become interceptions, Arizona’s turnover-free offense only needs to be patient.

Cardinals 24, Giants 20

The market flipped nine points for a reason: the Giants’ quarterback and best pass rusher are gone. Arizona does not beat itself. Cardinals by four.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 1.5 points beyond the line, toward Cardinals.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Two 2025 contenders, both bruised. The Eagles may not have a healthy starting receiver.

2 · Why This Game Matters

These teams have met three straight times, with Philadelphia winning all three, including the snow-globe divisional game in January 2025. Now both are wounded. The Rams blew a 16-0 lead in Denver and are 1-2 for the third time in four years. The Eagles were held to 7 points on Monday night by a third-string quarterback’s team, and Nick Sirianni spent the week explaining a fourth-and-1 punt: “I should have went for it.”

Philadelphia is also on a short week after Monday night. Los Angeles played Sunday night, so the Rams have one more day.

3 · The Storylines

Puka Nacua returns. Nacua missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a hip and groin injury and was limited Wednesday. Sean McVay is “excited to be able to have him back.” He changes what Stafford can do on third down.

Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald, on paper. The Rams traded for Garrett and talked Donald out of retirement. Garrett is on IR after knee surgery and Donald did not practice Wednesday with a back injury. The superteam has not yet played together.

Sirianni’s worst night. Monday was the Eagles’ lowest EPA per play of Sirianni’s tenure (−1.68 in one game), with three turnovers and no sacks. Saquon Barkley had 9 yards on four carries after halftime.

Jeremiah Trotter Jr.. If Zack Baun cannot clear the concussion protocol, Trotter makes his first career start at linebacker against McVay’s play-action game.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

This is the injury report that decides the game. Philadelphia’s Wednesday list (an estimate from a walkthrough) had DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert all not practicing, plus right tackle Fred Johnson and linebacker Zack Baun. If Smith sits, Dontayvion Wicks is the primary receiver. The Rams are missing corner Jaylen Watson (dislocated shoulder, likely out), both tight ends, and Garrett.

Los Angeles Rams

Philadelphia Eagles

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The Rams have been the better team by the numbers: 6.3 yards per play on offense and 4.6 allowed on defense (second-best), with an SRS of +4.4. What has cost them is turnovers, on 18% of drives. Philadelphia’s offense has been below average all season (−0.05 EPA per play, 38% success rate) and that was with its receivers healthy. The Eagles’ run defense remains solid; their pass defense (+0.15 EPA per dropback) is not.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Philadelphia has won three straight in the series: 33-26 last September and 28-22 in the January 2025 playoffs. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The Eagles’ passing game without its receivers. If Smith, Brown and Goedert all sit, Hurts is throwing to Wicks and backups against a Rams secondary also missing a starting corner. Philadelphia will try to make it a Barkley game. Watch the first-down play calls: run-run-pass means the Eagles do not trust what is left outside, and the Rams can load the box.

Rams 24, Eagles 17

The Rams are healthier where it counts, have an extra day of rest and get Nacua back. The Eagles’ offense was bad before half the receivers went down. Rams by a touchdown.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 4 points beyond the line, toward Rams.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

An undrafted rookie makes his first NFL start. The team he faces just gave up 242 rushing yards at home.

2 · Why This Game Matters

This is the week’s worst-ranked game by most national lists and the one with the most at stake for two coaches. Tampa Bay is 0-3 for the first time since 2014 and trying to avoid its first 0-4 start since 2013; Todd Bowles is widely named as the likeliest first coach to be fired. Matt LaFleur’s Packers lost 35-14 at home on Thursday night, snapping a 13-game home-opener streak, and they have one win, in overtime, against the Jets.

Green Bay has had ten days to fix it. Tampa Bay has had seven days to prepare a rookie.

3 · The Storylines

Jalon Daniels. Six seasons at Kansas, undrafted, and the backup job won over Connor Bazelak and Jake Browning in camp. Mayfield’s advice: “Just be yourself.” He takes over an offense that went 2-for-17 on third down last week.

Two new guards in Green Bay. Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are out, so recently signed veterans Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler are likely to play heavily. The Packers allowed 23 pressures and ran for 17 yards against Atlanta.

Coaches on the edge. Both head coaches are on national hot-seat lists. LaFleur is 1-3 against Tampa Bay.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Tampa Bay is missing much more than its quarterback: Chris Godwin Jr., both starting edge rushers (Yaya Diaby and rookie Rueben Bain Jr.) and nose tackle Rakeem Nuñez-Roches did not practice, and Bucky Irving was limited. Green Bay loses both interior guards and has two defensive tackles banged up.

Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Both offenses are among the league’s worst by success rate (36.8% each), and that was before Tampa Bay lost its quarterback. The Buccaneers’ defense is the better unit here: sixth in yards allowed and second against the run. Green Bay’s defense has been the worst in football by defensive SRS (−21.9) and allows +0.23 EPA per dropback. If Daniels can throw at all, there is room.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Green Bay leads the regular-season series 33-23-1. Tampa Bay won the last meeting, 34-20 at Lambeau in 2023, and the 2020 NFC Championship there. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Daniels’ first five dropbacks. Green Bay’s pass defense is generous, but rookie quarterbacks in their first start are usually undone by pressure and disguise, not by coverage. If Tampa Bay can script quick throws early and get Daniels comfortable, the Buccaneers’ defense can carry the rest. If the Packers get a sack and a turnover in the first quarter, the game is over by halftime.

Packers 20, Buccaneers 16

This is two bad offenses, a rookie quarterback, heat and late storms. Green Bay’s defense has been dreadful, but quarterback absence is the biggest adjustment there is. Packers by four, in a game nobody will remember.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The best defense in football against an offense averaging 12 points.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Minnesota is 3-0, has won eight straight going back to last season, and leads the NFC North. Miami is 0-3 under Jeff Hafley, has lost by 14, 22 and 14, and is now without De’Von Achane for the season.

Brian Flores, the Vikings’ defensive coordinator, coached Miami from 2019 to 2021 and was fired after back-to-back winning seasons. “Every game’s important to me.” Several of his former players, Zach Sieler and Austin Jackson among them, are still there.

3 · The Storylines

Flores against his old team. Minnesota leads the league with 14 sacks and allows 1.11 points per drive, the best figure in football. Flores knows exactly how Miami’s front was built.

Kyler Murray, starter by elimination. Minnesota traded McCarthy, and both Murray and Carson Wentz are free agents next spring. Murray has a month to prove he is the long-term answer, and he may not have Justin Jefferson.

Miami without Achane. The Dolphins’ most explosive player tore his ACL against Kansas City. Willis, signed for three years and $67.5 million, has no one left to hand the ball to who scares anyone.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Justin Jefferson left Week 3 after two catches and did not practice Wednesday; Kevin O’Connell would not commit. Minnesota’s punter also missed practice. Miami’s loss is permanent: Achane is done for the year, and edge rusher Rob Beal Jr. missed Wednesday on a defense with no sacks.

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Minnesota’s defense is the best in the league by EPA (−0.20 per play) and by success rate allowed (31.4%). Its offense is the worst in the league by success rate (32.4%), which is why the Vikings are 3-0 with only 71 points. Miami’s defense has been the worst in football: no sacks, a 28% pressure rate, 80% completions allowed and 3.07 points per drive. Something has to score, and it is not going to be Miami.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Minnesota has won the last two meetings, most recently 24-16 in 2022. Miami has faced the hardest schedule in the league so far (Las Vegas, San Francisco, Kansas City, a combined 9-0). Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Flores’ pressure against Willis. Willis is 13-of-27 under pressure with no touchdowns, and Minnesota pressures on 43.7% of dropbacks. Watch the blitz looks on third down: Flores will show pressure and drop, and Willis has to read it correctly to sustain a single drive. If he does, Miami stays within ten. If he does not, the Vikings’ defense may outscore Miami on its own.

Vikings 24, Dolphins 14

Minnesota’s offense will not look pretty, especially without Jefferson, but it does not need to. Vikings by ten.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Both 3-0. The winner leads the AFC West alone.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Kansas City went 6-11 last season. Las Vegas won three games and the No. 1 overall pick. Both are 3-0, and the AFC West’s sole lead goes to the winner. The last meeting was the 2025 finale, a 14-12 Raiders win on Daniel Carlson’s 60-yard field goal against a Chiefs team starting Chris Oladokun; the result handed Las Vegas that No. 1 pick.

The schedules are not equal. Las Vegas’s opponents (Miami, the Chargers, New Orleans) are a combined 1-8; this is the first real test of Klint Kubiak’s first season.

3 · The Storylines

Mahomes, rebuilt. Back from a torn ACL, Mahomes has tied Tom Brady for the most wins through 150 starts and passed Joe Montana with his 273rd touchdown pass. Week 3 was his most efficient game of the season.

Kenneth Walker III in red. The reigning Super Bowl MVP signed with Kansas City and gives Andy Reid a run game he has not had in years: 173 yards in Week 1, two touchdowns in Week 3.

Hezekiah Masses. A fifth-round rookie corner with three interceptions and an 18.2 passer rating allowed, tied for the most interceptions in a player’s first three games since 1980. The Raiders have nine takeaways.

Brock Bowers is back. Ten catches, 116 yards and a touchdown in his first game back, on a 43% target share.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Kansas City’s left tackle Josh Simmons missed Wednesday with a back injury, and L’Jarius Sneed was limited. Las Vegas lost Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) early last week; Caleb Rogers replaced him, and left guard Spencer Burford has already allowed 12 pressures. That interior is the matchup Chris Jones will be looking at.

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Kansas City’s net EPA (+0.24) is third in the league, balanced at +0.17 on offense and −0.08 on defense. Las Vegas is fourth at +0.21, almost entirely through defense: −0.20 EPA per play allowed, second only to Minnesota, and a pass defense allowing −0.13 per dropback. The Raiders’ offense is barely above average and its run game has been poor (−0.23 per rush). By SRS, Kansas City (+12.4) is ahead of Las Vegas (+8.4), and the schedule gap widens that.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Kansas City won 31-0 in Arrowhead last October; Las Vegas won the Week 18 rematch 14-12. The Chiefs ended a six-game road losing streak in Miami last week, their longest under Reid. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Chris Jones against the Raiders’ interior. Las Vegas protects Cousins well on the edges, but with Powers-Johnson out and Burford struggling, the middle is open. Cousins is at his worst with pressure in his face, not around the edge. If Jones gets two early pressures, the Raiders’ offense turns into Jeanty runs into a loaded box. Watch also for Masses: Mahomes will test the rookie at least once.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 20

The Raiders’ defense is real, but they have not played anyone, and Kansas City has the better quarterback and the edge in the trenches. Chiefs by four.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The champions lost for the first time in thirteen games. The Chargers have not won at all.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Seattle’s 12-game winning streak, playoffs included, ended in Washington on a late pick-six. The defending champions want to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2024 before a visit from 3-0 San Francisco. The Chargers are 0-3, last in a division where Kansas City and Las Vegas are 3-0, and Jim Harbaugh is insisting “we have the right players at every position.”

Mike Macdonald was Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator at Michigan in 2021. He knows how Harbaugh wants to win, and he has the defense to stop it.

3 · The Storylines

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, joining Jerry Rice. Smith-Njigba has 120-plus receiving yards and a touchdown in all three games, a start matched only by Rice in 1989.

The Chargers’ offensive line. Center Tyler Biadasz, tackle Trey Pipkins III and guard Branson Taylor are on IR, tight end David Njoku too. Los Angeles has a league-high ten false starts and the worst fourth-quarter EPA in football. Harbaugh backed his coordinator, Mike McDaniel: “We trust Mike.”

Rookie safety Genesis Smith. Two interceptions off Josh Allen last week; the Chargers forced five turnovers in Buffalo and still lost by eight.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Chargers’ injury list is the story of their season: seven players on IR, including three offensive linemen, and on Wednesday Derwin James and Ladd McConkey were limited while Khalil Mack rested. Seattle’s secondary is short (Ty Okada did not practice; Julian Love was limited), and Zach Charbonnet is out, which matters less than it sounds for a run game that already ranks 31st.

Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle Seahawks

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Seattle’s defense allows 3.8 yards per play, the best in the league, and ranks first in run-defense EPA. Its offense is lopsided: +0.29 EPA per dropback and −0.26 per rush. The Chargers are second-worst in the league in offensive EPA (−0.18), with Herbert completing 59% of his passes, and a defense that has been decent enough (+5.0 defensive SRS) to keep losses respectable.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Seattle leads the series 27-25 and won the last meeting 37-23 in 2022. The Chargers’ schedule has been hard (Arizona, Las Vegas, Buffalo). Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Seattle’s front against the Chargers’ patched line. Herbert is too good to stay this bad, but he cannot throw from his back. Seattle can generate pressure without blitzing, which leaves seven in coverage against receivers who are not separating. Count how often the Chargers need to keep a back or tight end in to block. More than half the time, and their offense has no answer.

Seahawks 24, Chargers 14

Seattle is the better team in every phase and at home; the only thing that keeps this inside two scores is Darnold’s turnover habit. Seahawks by ten.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 3 points beyond the line, toward Seahawks.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Kyle Shanahan against the team his father built, and the best offense in football against a defense that keeps winning ugly.

2 · Why This Game Matters

San Francisco is 3-0 for the second straight year, the first back-to-back 3-0 starts since 1989 and 1990. It has the league’s best offense by EPA and goes to Seattle next week. Denver is 2-1 and has played the second-hardest schedule in the league, beating Jacksonville and coming back from 16-0 down against the Rams.

Mike Shanahan coached Denver for 14 seasons and two championships; his son’s team now plays his old one. The series is tied 8-8, including San Francisco’s 55-10 Super Bowl win in January 1990.

3 · The Storylines

Talanoa Hufanga against his old team. The former 49ers safety had two interceptions against the Rams, including a 66-yard pick-six, and was AFC Defensive Player of the Week. He knows Shanahan’s route concepts by heart.

Purdy’s MVP case. His MVP odds have shortened from +850 to +450. Behind a line that has not allowed a sack, he is completing 72% at 9.5 yards an attempt.

San Francisco’s attrition. Nick Bosa, back from an ACL tear, strained a calf in practice and is out for weeks. Mike Evans (ribs) and Trent Williams (stinger) did not practice; Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk are on IR and Brandon Aiyuk is out. Purdy may be throwing to a short list.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

San Francisco’s list is long and matters on both sides of the ball. Without Bosa and Keion White, the pass rush is thin; without Evans, the receiver group is thinner still; and Trent Williams’ stinger is the one that could change everything. Christian McCaffrey’s DNP was rest. Denver is relatively healthy: Jaylen Waddle and Marvin Mims Jr. were full, and edge Dondrea Tillman is the notable absence.

Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

San Francisco’s offense is in a different category: +0.33 EPA per play, +0.62 per dropback, a 56% success rate and 63% on third down. Its defense is average. Denver is the opposite: an offense below average (−0.05 EPA per play, 3.6 yards a carry) and a defense with an +8.7 defensive SRS. Denver has 8 sacks; Purdy has taken none.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Denver won the last meeting, 11-10 on a Sunday night in 2022. San Francisco’s opponents are 2-7, Denver’s 6-3. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Denver’s rush against a line that has not allowed a sack. The 49ers’ offense works because Purdy has time to let routes develop. If Trent Williams plays, that should continue. If he does not, Denver’s front, the strength of its team, gets a backup left tackle in 88-degree heat. Watch the first third-and-long: if Purdy has to get rid of it before the receiver breaks, the game changes.

49ers 27, Broncos 20

San Francisco is the best offense in the league and Denver’s offense has scored 30 once. The injuries make it closer than the 3-0 record suggests, but not close enough. 49ers by a touchdown.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 4 points beyond the line, toward 49ers.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The Lions score 31 every week and give up 24. Carolina’s offensive line is held together with backups.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Carolina’s first Sunday night home game in about a decade, in a blackout uniform. The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 last season, and Dave Canales called this “our one shot” at a national audience. Detroit is 2-1 after three straight shootouts; it has scored 31 in every game and hoped that was enough.

The series favors Carolina 8-4 (6-1 at home). Detroit won the last meeting, 42-24 in 2023.

3 · The Storylines

Jahmyr Gibbs against the worst run defense in football. Gibbs has 307 rushing yards, six touchdowns and 29 forced missed tackles, and just passed Billy Sims for second in franchise rushing touchdowns. Carolina allows 193 rushing yards a game.

Bryce Young, leading the league. Young has more passing yards than anyone. He also was pressured on 51% of his dropbacks last week, and now four starting offensive linemen are hurt.

A Lions defense without its safeties. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both out. Detroit is 30th in defensive EPA, and Aidan Hutchinson’s pass rush is doing most of the work.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Carolina’s injury report is the game. Left guard Damien Lewis is expected to miss it, rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling has concussion symptoms, and tackles Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are listed out, leaving Stone Forsythe and depth linemen against Hutchinson. Both starting corners, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, went to IR on Wednesday. Detroit’s secondary is short two starting safeties.

Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Detroit’s offense is seventh in EPA per play (+0.14) with a 51% success rate; its defense allows +0.18, second-worst in the league. Carolina’s offense has been better than its reputation (+15.4 offensive SRS, second only to Jacksonville), its pass defense was fifth by yards before both corners went down, and its run defense is the worst in football. Detroit has 12 sacks, second-most in the league. Both teams are +3 in turnovers.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Detroit has scored 31 or more and allowed 24 or more in all three games. Carolina is 6-1 at home against Detroit. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Hutchinson against Carolina’s backup tackles. Young was pressured on half his dropbacks with his starters. Now Detroit’s best player faces Forsythe or whoever is healthy, in the rain. Watch whether Carolina chips Hutchinson with a back on every pass. If it has to, the Panthers’ receivers, already missing Legette and Coker, are running routes against numbers.

Lions 30, Panthers 23

Gibbs against the league’s worst run defense and Hutchinson against a backup line are two mismatches too many. Carolina’s passing game will score on the Lions’ safety-less secondary, which is why this is a shootout and not a rout. Lions by a touchdown.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast is 3.5 points beyond the line, toward Lions.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Twenty years after the Superdome reopened against Atlanta on a Monday night, the Falcons return with a quarterback who just got his knee back.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Atlanta, New Orleans and Carolina are all 1-2 and Tampa Bay is 0-3, so the winner shares the NFC South lead. The last meeting, in January, was a 19-17 Atlanta win that handed Carolina the division title. This is the Saints’ first division game and their first home Monday night game since 2022, on the 20th anniversary of the Superdome’s reopening against the Falcons in 2006.

Atlanta has had eleven days since its Thursday night win at Lambeau. New Orleans is on a normal week after blowing a 27-16 third-quarter lead to Las Vegas with four fourth-quarter turnovers.

3 · The Storylines

Penix, healthy. With Rush at quarterback, Atlanta scored 16 points in two games. With Penix, it scored 35 at Lambeau: Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards, Drake London caught nine passes for 194. One game is a small sample, but it is a different team.

Tua in a headset. Signed from Miami for one year and named the Week 1 starter, Tagovailoa hurt his oblique before the opener and is now the backup. “Mike’s the guy.”

Shough and the turnovers. Shough threw four touchdowns last week, the first Saints quarterback to do it since Derek Carr in January 2024, and New Orleans still lost because of four fourth-quarter giveaways. The Saints are −4 in turnovers; Atlanta is −6, worst in the league.

Kellen Moore, year two. New Orleans went 6-11 in Moore’s first season. Kevin Stefanski is in his first year in Atlanta.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Because this is a Monday game, neither team had published a practice report by Thursday morning; the injury picture is incomplete and worth checking closer to kickoff. Known: New Orleans has ruled out running back Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring), leaving Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, and has a long IR list including tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and defensive tackle Bryan Bresee. Atlanta’s top corner A.J. Terrell is on IR; C.J. Henderson starts.

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints

Status is from Wednesday’s official participation report; Friday designations may change it.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Atlanta’s season numbers are polluted by two Rush starts (−0.35 EPA per dropback overall), so read them carefully. The defense is the steady part: first in the league in pressure rate (44.2%) and first against the run (47.7 yards a game). New Orleans throws well (281 yards a game, 53% on third down) but cannot stop the run (128.7 allowed, 27th) and has allowed ten sacks. That is a pressure-heavy defense against a sack-prone line, and the league’s second-best rushing offense against a weak run defense.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA from nflfastR play-by-play, Weeks 1–3, all plays. Schedule tier from the league-wide table at the top.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Atlanta leads the all-time series 57-56 and swept it in 2025, but New Orleans is 26-14 against the Falcons since 2006. The Saints are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten. Recent form is the whole season for now: with three games played, the last-five window is not yet available.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Atlanta’s pass rush against Shough. The Falcons pressure more than any team in football; the Saints have allowed ten sacks and just turned the ball over four times in a quarter. If Atlanta gets to Shough on early downs, New Orleans’ best unit, its passing game, stalls, and Robinson is running into a defense that has not stopped anyone on the ground.

Falcons 24, Saints 23

The Saints at home are the default, and Shough has been good. But Atlanta with Penix is a different team, with eleven days’ rest and matchups that point its way on both lines. Falcons, barely.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:10 AM PT Thursday, Oct 1 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast disagrees with the line: it has Falcons winning outright, 3.5 points from the market.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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Run notes

Lessons applied: L-001, L-002, L-003, L-004, L-005, L-006.

• Slate: nfl.com Week 4 lists 16 games; cross-checked against the league’s Week 4 viewing guide and the nflverse schedule feed. Distinct teams counted: 32 of 32, no byes (L-001). Kickoff times from nfl.com, converted from ET to PT (L-003).
• Primetime broadcasts confirmed on the networks’ own material (L-002): Thursday on Amazon’s TNF pages; Sunday night on NBC (Peacock simulcast); Monday night is ESPN only with no ABC simulcast, plus the ManningCast on ESPN2, confirmed via ESPN’s game feed and schedule pages — the ESPN press-room page itself could not be reached.
• Final scores for Weeks 1–3 from the nflverse structured results feed, cross-checked against CBS scoreboards; all 48 agree (L-004). Pro Football Reference blocked direct access (403); its standings and SRS were read through a page summarizer and checked by recomputing W-L, PF and PA for all 32 teams, which matched.
• Over/under consensus withheld on every game (L-005). Spreads and totals from ScoresAndOdds in one pass at 07:10 ET (L-006). Books 1.5+ points off ScoresAndOdds: Titans–Ravens total, Caesars 44.5 vs 42.5. No spread differed by 1.5 or more.
• Opening lines: ScoresAndOdds’ “open” column is probably the look-ahead number but is not labelled; Rotowire and Covers print different openers on several games.
• Conflict: one outlet (SB Nation, quoting FanDuel) printed Browns -2.5 for Thursday; ScoresAndOdds, CBS and VegasInsider all have Steelers -2.5. Went with the book of record.
• EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play (rbsdm.com renders by script and could not be read); no garbage-time filter, so values differ slightly from rbsdm. ESPN FPI unreachable (rate-limited); Next Gen Stats and DVOA not gathered this week. Tier-2 advanced coverage this week is EPA plus success rate only, below the skill’s two-source bar.
• ATS: covers.com closing lines. The nflverse closing lines score three Week 1–3 games as pushes that Covers grades as wins or losses (Patriots–Seahawks W1, Ravens–Cowboys W3, Jets–Lions W3). Last-4 ATS window: insufficient games played (three); full window opens in the Week 5 report.
• Broadcast booths: 506sports.com did not load; Sunday booths from Awful Announcing, cross-checked with Pro Football Network and USA Today where available. Patriots–Bills lists Ross Tucker beside Ian Eagle, an unusual pairing worth rechecking.
• Not yet published: Falcons–Saints practice reports (Monday game); Commanders’ quarterback decision (Friday); Bears’ starting quarterback; NRG Stadium roof decision; whether Joey Porter Jr. plays for Dallas Sunday.
• Weather: NWS point forecasts for every outdoor U.S. venue. London from the Met Office model via Open-Meteo, not an official stadium forecast.
• Series-record conflict: Colts–Commanders 21-11 (Commanders.com) vs 21-13 (USA Today); used the team figure.
• Special teams: no comparable free team-level metric gathered; individual kicking notes only.
• Schedule-difficulty tiers provisional (three games played). Totals: 14 of 16 predicted totals sit under the market number again; no calibration adjustment is active, so none was applied.

Generated by an AI from public data. An experiment, not a forecast to bet on.

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