NFL 2026 · Week 4 in review · Thursday Oct 1 – Monday Oct 5
| Published Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026 16 games, Thursday to Monday (1 in London) 7 of 16 betting favorites lost outright Our picks: 11-5 · the favorites: 9-7 | Games in this recap 16 of 16 played |
The Week in One Line
Our best week of the season: 11 right, 5 wrong, two games better than simply taking the betting favorite in every game (9-7). Seven favorites lost outright, and for once we had picked three of those upsets: Cleveland over Pittsburgh, Jacksonville in Cincinnati and Atlanta in New Orleans. Our fourth underdog pick, Washington, lost by 17 in London.
One good week is not proof of anything. A week ago we were one game behind the favorites; over the season we are still two behind them, 38-26 against 40-24. And getting the winner right was not the same as getting the game right: we had Atlanta by one, and the Falcons won by 21.
The Scorecard
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite (games won out of 16, Week 4)
Outright underdog picks (games won, Week 4 and season)
| Measure | Week 4 | Season (64 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Winners picked | 11-5 | 38-26 |
| Taking every favorite | 9-7 | 40-24 |
| Average miss on the final margin | 7.2 pts | 10.2 pts |
| Average miss on total points | 10.4 pts | 11.2 pts |
Three of the five misses were games we called at 62–70%, and they were the upsets that cost us: New England at Buffalo, Arizona at the Giants and Detroit at Carolina. The other two were Washington, which collapsed when its backup quarterback got hurt in the first quarter, and Dallas at Houston, a game we called at 53% and lost by four.
Points ran higher than we expected again. We forecast fewer points than the betting total in 14 of 16 games, and nine of the 16 went over that total. Cowboys-Texans (64 points) and Falcons-Saints (69) were the two biggest misses on scoring.
Game by Game
Every game, in the order it was played: how it was won, who won it, and what we had called before kickoff.
At a glance
| Game | Final | We said | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns | PIT 24, CLE 27 | CLE 20-17 | Right |
| Colts vs. Commanders | IND 30, WAS 13 | WAS 24-23 | Wrong |
| Titans at Ravens | TEN 18, BAL 24 | BAL 27-13 | Right |
| Patriots at Bills | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF 27-20 | Wrong |
| Jets at Bears | NYJ 12, CHI 23 | CHI 24-20 | Right |
| Jaguars at Bengals | JAX 22, CIN 17 | JAX 27-24 | Right |
| Cowboys at Texans | DAL 34, HOU 30 | HOU 24-23 | Wrong |
| Cardinals at Giants | ARI 24, NYG 36 | ARI 24-20 | Wrong |
| Rams at Eagles | LAR 24, PHI 20 | LAR 24-17 | Right |
| Packers at Buccaneers | GB 17, TB 14 | GB 20-16 | Right |
| Dolphins at Vikings | MIA 10, MIN 15 | MIN 24-14 | Right |
| Chiefs at Raiders | KC 30, LV 27 | KC 24-20 | Right |
| Chargers at Seahawks | LAC 23, SEA 30 | SEA 24-14 | Right |
| Broncos at 49ers | DEN 14, SF 24 | SF 27-20 | Right |
| Lions at Panthers | DET 26, CAR 32 | DET 30-23 | Wrong |
| Falcons at Saints | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL 24-23 | Right |
How far off our margin was (points between our predicted margin and the real one, 0–30 scale; blue = right winner, orange = wrong winner)
Game 1 of 16 · Thursday · Huntington Bank Field
Steelers 24 at Browns 27
All four AFC North teams arrived at 2-1, so the winner would leave Thursday night alone in first place. Cleveland had not held sole possession of the division lead since 2014. It does now.
Deshaun Watson completed 24 of 33 for 268 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, and then did the thing he has now done three weeks running: he drove the Browns into range late, and Andre Szmyt kicked the winning field goal with 10 seconds left. Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, but Cleveland sacked him five times, Denzel Ward’s second-quarter interception turned the game, and Grant Delpit picked off the final heave. T.J. Watt forced and recovered a fumble in the third quarter. It wasn’t enough.
Who decided it
Deshaun Watson, CLE — 24/33, 268 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, and the game-winning drive
Andre Szmyt, CLE — the winning field goal with 10 seconds left
Cleveland pass rush — five sacks of Rodgers
Our call: Browns 20-17, 59% to win. Right. Exact margin.
Game 2 of 16 · Sunday · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Colts 30 vs. Commanders 13
Washington came to London already without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, and in the first quarter Marcus Mariota aggravated his MCL. That left Athan Kaliakmanis, who completed 13 of 31, and an offense that looked unrecognizable.
Daniel Jones gave the ball away twice early under pressure, which was exactly the opening Washington needed, and the Commanders could not use it. Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns, and Indianapolis pulled away to 30-13. The Colts are 2-2.
Who decided it
Jonathan Taylor, IND — 95 rushing yards, 2 TD
Marcus Mariota, WAS — aggravated MCL in the first quarter; the game turned with him
Our call: Commanders 24-23, 53% to win. Missed. Lost by 17.
Game 3 of 16 · Sunday · M&T Bank Stadium
Titans 18 at Ravens 24
Baltimore led from the second snap, when Trenton Simpson intercepted Cam Ward and set up the opening touchdown. Lamar Jackson was 15 of 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns, Zay Flowers went over 100 yards with a score, and Tyler Loop hit a career-long 64-yard field goal.
Then Jackson hurt his ankle on a sack, and the Ravens’ offense stalled. Tennessee kept coming: rookie Carnell Tate caught nine for 145 yards, and only a Baltimore goal-line stand kept the Titans from making it a one-score game late. The Titans are 0-4.
Who decided it
Lamar Jackson, BAL — 15/20, 222 yards, 2 TD before leaving with an ankle injury
Carnell Tate, TEN — 9 catches, 145 yards
Baltimore defense — an interception on the second play and a goal-line stand
Our call: Ravens 27-13, 85% to win. Right. Right winner; the margin was 8 points short.
Game 4 of 16 · Sunday · Highmark Stadium
Patriots 29 at Bills 26
Buffalo was 3-0 and a touchdown favorite. Drake Maye beat the Bills anyway: 22 of 37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns, plus 54 yards on the ground. Romeo Doubs caught two of the touchdowns, and Efton Chism III made a one-handed catch for the go-ahead score late.
Josh Allen’s last real chance ended in an interception, and Maye found Hunter Henry for the first down that let New England run out the clock. Keon Coleman had 116 yards and a touchdown for Buffalo, and D.J. Moore left with a shoulder injury. The Bills’ defense allowed 405 yards. Buffalo is 3-1; New England is 2-2.
Who decided it
Drake Maye, NE — 22/37, 269 yards, 3 TD, 54 rushing yards
Romeo Doubs, NE — 6 catches, 58 yards, 2 TD
Keon Coleman, BUF — 116 receiving yards, 1 TD
Our call: Bills 27-20, 70% to win. Missed.
Game 5 of 16 · Sunday · Soldier Field
Jets 12 at Bears 23
Tyson Bagent made his first start in nearly three years and threw for a career-high 268 yards, but this was a running game’s afternoon. Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns, and he and D’Andre Swift combined for 204 yards.
Chicago ran 89 plays to the Jets’ 32 and outgained them 492 to 157, a 335-yard gap. The Bears have now won with three different quarterbacks, and their defense has held its last three opponents to 12 points or fewer. Minkah Fitzpatrick’s interception was the Jets’ one bright spot.
Who decided it
Kyle Monangai, CHI — 30 carries, 146 yards, 2 TD
Tyson Bagent, CHI — career-high 268 passing yards in a spot start
Chicago defense — 157 yards allowed on 32 plays
Our call: Bears 24-20, 62% to win. Right. Right winner; 7 points short on the margin.
Game 6 of 16 · Sunday · Paycor Stadium
Jaguars 22 at Bengals 17
Trevor Lawrence had never beaten Cincinnati. He did it by being steady: 23 completions for 227 yards and a touchdown, behind a running game of Bhayshul Tuten (73 yards on 17 carries) and Chris Rodriguez Jr., whose 25-yard touchdown run was the longest play of the day.
The Bengals lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the first half and Tee Higgins to an adductor injury. Without them, Joe Burrow threw two interceptions, one in the red zone, and the Jaguars’ defense held on. Jacksonville is 3-1.
Who decided it
Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 23 completions, 227 yards, 1 TD; his first win over the Bengals
Chris Rodriguez Jr., JAX — 25-yard touchdown run
Jacksonville defense — two Burrow interceptions, one in the red zone
Our call: Jaguars 27-24, 59% to win. Right. Right winner as the underdog; 2 points off the margin.
Game 7 of 16 · Sunday · NRG Stadium
Cowboys 34 at Texans 30
CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, and 11 of those catches for 140 yards came after halftime. Only three players before him had a game with 17 catches, 180 yards and a score. Dak Prescott was 32 of 45 for 335 yards, Javonte Williams scored three times from close range, and Dallas scored on four of its five second-half drives.
Houston’s offense finally showed up. C.J. Stroud had time, and Nico Collins caught seven for 117 yards and two touchdowns. It still wasn’t enough for the defense to hold. The Texans are 0-4.
Who decided it
CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 17 catches, 189 yards, 1 TD
Dak Prescott, DAL — 32/45, 335 yards, 1 TD
Nico Collins, HOU — 7 catches, 117 yards, 2 TD
Our call: Texans 24-23, 53% to win. Missed. A 53% call that lost by four.
Game 8 of 16 · Sunday · MetLife Stadium
Cardinals 24 at Giants 36
Arizona led 14-3 early. Then Jameis Winston did what Jameis Winston does in both directions: he led scoring drives on four of the Giants’ first six possessions and threw two interceptions along the way.
The game was still one score when Arizona drove to the Giants’ goal line in the final two minutes. Deonte Banks, who had been flagged for pass interference earlier, intercepted Jacoby Brissett and returned it 98 yards for a touchdown with 1:07 left. That made it 36-24. The Giants’ heavier blitzing all afternoon kept Trey McBride covered when it mattered.
Who decided it
Deonte Banks, NYG — 98-yard interception return for a touchdown with 1:07 left
Jameis Winston, NYG — four scoring drives in the first six possessions, 2 INT
Giants defense — the late stop on Arizona’s final drive
Our call: Cardinals 24-20, 62% to win. Missed.
Game 9 of 16 · Sunday · Lincoln Financial Field
Rams 24 at Eagles 20
Philadelphia went 0-for-12 on third down, the most attempts without a conversion by any team since 1991. Jalen Hurts threw for 93 yards, the fewest of any game he has started and finished. Saquon Barkley left with a hamstring injury and missed more than three quarters.
The Eagles still led by ten. The Rams came back slowly: Puka Nacua, back from injury, caught nine for 125 yards; a late-hit penalty moved them into field-goal range; and after Los Angeles stuffed Philadelphia at the 2-yard line, Kyren Williams scored the go-ahead touchdown. Williams finished with 147 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches.
Who decided it
Puka Nacua, LAR — 9 catches, 125 yards
Kyren Williams, LAR — 147 scrimmage yards, the go-ahead touchdown
Philadelphia offense — 0-for-12 on third down, 93 passing yards
Our call: Rams 24-17, 70% to win. Right. Right winner; 3 points off the margin.
Game 10 of 16 · Sunday · Raymond James Stadium
Packers 17 at Buccaneers 14
Green Bay won a game it kept trying to give away. The Packers were penalized on the first play of four different drives, and Kaleb Johnson fumbled at the Tampa Bay 3-yard line. Jordan Love threw two touchdowns, including Tucker Kraft’s first of the season. Love has now thrown two or more in each of the first four games, the first Packer to do it since Aaron Rodgers in 2020.
Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels made his first start for Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers’ defense kept it close, but Evan Williams intercepted him late. Edgerrin Cooper also had an interception and then tore his Achilles in the third quarter. Tampa Bay is 0-4.
Who decided it
Jordan Love, GB — 2 TD passes, a late interception
Evan Williams, GB — late interception and two pressures
Zyon McCollum, TB — recovered the fumble at the 3
Our call: Packers 20-16, 62% to win. Right. Right winner; 1 point off the margin.
Game 11 of 16 · Sunday · U.S. Bank Stadium
Dolphins 10 at Vikings 15
Minnesota is 4-0 and has won two of those games without scoring a touchdown. Will Reichard scored all 15 points, extending his streak to 31 straight field goals. Kyler Murray threw for 247 yards and no touchdowns; T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 passes thrown his way, for 119 yards.
Miami’s best moment was Ollie Gordon II’s 53-yard run, part of 100 yards on just nine carries. Malik Willis couldn’t add much more to it. The Dolphins are 0-4.
Who decided it
Will Reichard, MIN — all 15 Minnesota points
T.J. Hockenson, MIN — 13 catches on 13 targets, 119 yards
Ollie Gordon II, MIA — 9 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD
Our call: Vikings 24-14, 77% to win. Right. Right winner; 5 points off the margin.
Game 12 of 16 · Sunday · Allegiant Stadium
Chiefs 30 at Raiders 27
The game between two unbeaten AFC West teams was decided by big plays. Kansas City had five gains of 20 yards or more, worth 235 yards together. Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, including a 76-yarder late in the third quarter, and Patrick Mahomes beat a blitz for a 55-yard touchdown to Tyquan Thornton.
Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards, most of it to his tight ends: Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer and Ian Thomas combined for 16 catches, 200 yards and two touchdowns. Xavier Nwankpa’s interception closed it out. Kansas City is 4-0, Las Vegas 3-1.
Who decided it
Kenneth Walker III, KC — 177 rushing yards, 2 TD
Kirk Cousins, LV — 365 passing yards
Xavier Nwankpa, KC — the game-sealing interception
Our call: Chiefs 24-20, 62% to win. Right. Right winner; 1 point off the margin.
Game 13 of 16 · Sunday · Lumen Field
Chargers 23 at Seahawks 30
Seattle won with its backups in the backfield. Emanuel Wilson had 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, and Rashid Shaheed ran 28 yards for another. Sam Darnold threw an early interception and then nothing else went wrong for him.
Justin Herbert threw two interceptions, and Uchenna Nwosu ended the Chargers’ final drive with a strip-sack. Los Angeles lost Rashawn Slater to an ankle injury and Joe Alt to a neck injury during the game, on a line that was already patched. The Chargers are 0-4; the Seahawks are 3-1.
Who decided it
Emanuel Wilson, SEA — 120 scrimmage yards, 2 TD
Uchenna Nwosu, SEA — strip-sack on the Chargers’ last drive
Justin Herbert, LAC — 2 INT and a lost fumble
Our call: Seahawks 24-14, 77% to win. Right. Right winner; 3 points off the margin.
Game 14 of 16 · Sunday · Levi’s Stadium
Broncos 14 at 49ers 24
It was 3-3 for most of the first half. The 49ers pulled away after halftime, helped by a Marvin Mims fumble on a punt return that set up their first touchdown. Brock Purdy finished 19 of 30 for 218 yards and two touchdowns, the second a 56-yard catch-and-run by George Kittle late in the fourth quarter. Christian McCaffrey added a 1-yard score.
Mike Evans played through a rib injury and caught five for 76. Denver lost cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss and receiver Pat Bryant, who was carted off. Kyle Shanahan passed Bill Walsh for the most games coached in franchise history. San Francisco is 4-0.
Who decided it
Brock Purdy, SF — 19/30, 218 yards, 2 TD
George Kittle, SF — 56-yard touchdown late in the fourth
Marvin Mims, DEN — the punt-return fumble that opened the scoring
Our call: 49ers 27-20, 70% to win. Right. Right winner; 3 points off the margin.
Game 15 of 16 · Sunday Night · Bank of America Stadium
Lions 26 at Panthers 32
Bryce Young went 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and Tetairoa McMillan caught a career-high 14 passes for 192 yards and both scores. Carolina picked up 28 first downs against a Detroit secondary already missing both starting safeties, then lost cornerback Rock Ya-Sin to a hamstring injury in the third quarter.
Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, Jameson Williams had his first 100-yard game of the season and Jake Bates made all four field goals. But four field goals don’t beat four touchdowns. A late sack left Detroit facing 4th-and-13 from its own 10, and that was the game.
Who decided it
Bryce Young, CAR — 29/41, 329 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Tetairoa McMillan, CAR — 14 catches, 192 yards, 2 TD
Jared Goff, DET — 412 passing yards in a loss
Our call: Lions 30-23, 70% to win. Missed.
Game 16 of 16 · Monday Night · Caesars Superdome
Falcons 45 at Saints 24
Bijan Robinson ran 59 yards for a touchdown on Atlanta’s opening possession and the Falcons never slowed down. He finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries; Brian Robinson Jr. added a career-high three. Five rushing touchdowns between them is a franchise record. Michael Penix Jr. needed only 20 passes, completing 15 for 223 yards, including a 31-yard play-action touchdown to Jahan Dotson.
Tyler Shough threw 48 times for 286 yards and Chris Olave caught eight for 116, but New Orleans was chasing from the first drive. Atlanta has scored 80 points in its last two games and is 2-2.
Who decided it
Bijan Robinson, ATL — 19 carries, 145 yards, 2 TD
Brian Robinson Jr., ATL — 3 rushing TD, a career high
Michael Penix Jr., ATL — 15/20, 223 yards, 1 TD
Our call: Falcons 24-23, 53% to win. Right. Right winner as the underdog, but 20 points off the margin.
What We Got Wrong
Colts 30, Commanders 13. Our worst miss on a winner: we had Washington by one; Indianapolis won by 17. We picked the Commanders “either way at quarterback” on the strength of Mariota’s win over the champions. Mariota lasted a quarter, and the third-stringer had nothing to work with. The injury was bad luck, but the pick leaned on a team already missing its quarterback and its best receiver, and that is a thin base for an outright underdog call.
Giants 36, Cardinals 24. We followed the market when it flipped nine points toward Arizona after the Giants lost their quarterback and best pass rusher. The Giants’ defense won it anyway. Some of the 16-point miss is the goal-line pick-six in the final two minutes, which turned a one-score game into twelve. Some of it is that we treated Winston’s interceptions as the whole story. He threw two and still put up points on four of his first six drives.
Panthers 32, Lions 26. We had Detroit by seven at 70%. Our own preview said the Panthers’ way to win was Young throwing over a Lions secondary missing both safeties, behind extra protection. That is almost exactly what happened. We named the danger and didn’t weigh it enough.
Patriots 29, Bills 26. We had Buffalo by a touchdown and said New England’s offense hadn’t shown it could score 20. Maye scored 29 and the Patriots put up 405 yards. That is a real miss about New England’s offense, not bad luck.
Cowboys 34, Texans 30. A 53% call is a coin flip, and it landed the other way. There’s no lesson in it.
The right winners that weren’t right. Atlanta won by 21 when we said one; Baltimore won by six when we said 14. The scoring miss ran the same way as in earlier weeks. We forecast lower scoring than the betting market in 14 of 16 games, and the games averaged 3.9 points more than we predicted.
What We Got Right
Browns 27, Steelers 24 — we said Cleveland by three as the underdog; it won by three. Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 — we said Jacksonville by three as the underdog; it won by five. Both games went against the betting line, so they aren’t the market’s credit. In both, the reason we gave held up: Cleveland’s defense (five sacks, two interceptions) and Jacksonville’s defense against a thin Bengals receiving group. Chase’s concussion helped Jacksonville, and we didn’t forecast that.
Packers 17, Buccaneers 14 and Chiefs 30, Raiders 27 each landed within a point of our margin, and the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams were all within three. All five were the betting favorite by about the same number, so the market gets most of that credit.
Our pick of Atlanta was right too, but the reason we gave was the Falcons’ pass rush. The game was won by the running game, which our preview listed second.
The Week That Was
Three teams left unbeaten, five left winless. Kansas City, Minnesota and San Francisco are 4-0. Buffalo and Las Vegas lost for the first time. Tennessee, Houston, the Chargers, Miami and Tampa Bay are all 0-4, and history is not kind to teams that start that way.
Underdogs ruled. Seven of 16 betting favorites lost outright, including Buffalo at home as a touchdown favorite and Detroit on Sunday night. Five of the seven upsets were one-score games; the other two were not close at all: the Giants by 12 and Atlanta by 21.
The receivers’ Sunday. CeeDee Lamb’s 17 catches for 189 yards put him in a club of four. Tetairoa McMillan had 192 yards on Sunday night, and T.J. Hockenson caught 13 of 13. Chris Olave now has 491 receiving yards through four weeks, second in the league.
Quarterback watch. Tyson Bagent won his first start in nearly three years. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels lost a close one in his debut. Washington’s quarterback room is down to its third option. Lamar Jackson left in a walking boot.
The AFC North reshuffles. Cleveland is alone in first at 3-1 for the first time since 2014; Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati sit behind it.
Injuries That Change Things
| Player | Injury & status | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Ankle — left on a sack, walking boot after the game; day-to-day, tests pending | Baltimore’s offense stalled once he left. If he misses time, the AFC North lead gets harder to chase. |
| Ja’Marr Chase, CIN WR | Concussion — in protocol; reported likely to miss Week 5 | With Tee Higgins also hurt, Burrow could be without both top receivers. |
| Tee Higgins, CIN WR | Adductor — likely to miss some time | See above: Cincinnati’s passing game is suddenly thin. |
| Marcus Mariota, WAS QB | Aggravated MCL — expected to miss time | With Jayden Daniels already out, Washington is down to Athan Kaliakmanis. |
| Edgerrin Cooper, GB LB | Torn Achilles (reported) — season-ending | Green Bay loses its best young defender; he had an interception before the injury. |
| Pat Surtain II, DEN CB | Non-contact ankle — reports range from a couple of weeks to injured reserve | Denver also lost Riley Moss (ribs) in the same game. Its secondary is the team’s strength, and both starting corners are now in doubt. |
| Rashawn Slater, LAC T | High ankle sprain — possible multi-week absence | An 0-4 team loses its left tackle; Joe Alt (neck) also left the game. |
| Saquon Barkley, PHI RB | Hamstring — testing; early word is not serious | Philadelphia’s offense went 0-for-12 on third down without him for most of the game. |
| Quinyon Mitchell, PHI CB | Knee — suspected hyperextension, MRI pending | A starting corner for a defense that has carried the Eagles. |
| Tyquan Thornton, KC WR | Dislocated ankle — out indefinitely | He scored on a 55-yard pass on Sunday; Rashee Rice (hamstring) is also nursing a minor injury. |
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Hamstring — ruled out for Week 5, his third straight missed game | Bagent starts again. |
Statuses as reported Monday, Oct 5; timelines change quickly early in the week. Surtain’s outlook differed between sources, so both are given.
The Season So Far
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite, season (games won out of 64, Weeks 1–4)
Winners picked by week (share of games picked right; games in brackets)
Four weeks in, we are 38-26 picking winners. Taking the favorite every time would be 40-24. This was the first week we beat the favorites, and it cut the gap from four games to two.
Our outright underdog picks are now 3-5 for the season, after going 0-4 through Week 3. Three good calls in a week doesn’t settle whether those picks are worth making. We will keep publishing the score either way.
Not betting advice. The forecasts graded here are a model’s estimates and will be wrong in both directions; they are published so they can be scored, and this page is the scoring.