NFL 2026 · Week 5 in review · Thursday Oct 8 – Monday Oct 12
| Published Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026 15 games, Thursday to Monday (1 in London) Kansas City and Carolina on bye Our picks: 8-7 · the favorites: 9-6 | Games in this recap 15 of 15 played |
The Week in One Line
A losing week against the market: 8 right, 7 wrong, one game worse than simply taking the betting favorite in every game (9-6). Our preview was built around the backup quarterbacks, and the backups are where we lost it. Tampa Bay won with an undrafted rookie, Baltimore won with Tyler Huntley, the Giants tied with Jameis Winston, and Chicago lost by 24 with Tyson Bagent. We were wrong in all four of those games.
Over the season we are now three games behind the favorites, 46-33 against 49-30. The two calls that stung most were our own: we picked Las Vegas to win in New England and lost by 28, and Chicago at Lambeau and lost by 24.
The Scorecard
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite (games won out of 15, Week 5)
Picks against the betting favorite (games won, Week 5 and season)
| Measure | Week 5 | Season (79 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Winners picked | 8-7 | 46-33 |
| Taking every favorite | 9-6 | 49-30 |
| Average miss on the final margin | 10.6 pts | 10.3 pts |
| Average miss on total points | 10.2 pts | 11.0 pts |
Six betting favorites failed to win: Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta and the Rams lost, and Washington tied. We had picked against only one of them, San Francisco over Seattle. The other two times we went against the market, Las Vegas and Cleveland, the favorite won.
Points ran higher than we forecast again, by 4.6 a game on average, even after we had nudged our scoring forecasts up this week. Three overtime games added to it, but the biggest misses on scoring were in regulation as well: Bills-Rams (71 points against our 52), Raiders-Patriots (62 against 45) and 49ers-Seahawks (61 against 45).
Game by Game
Every game, in the order it was played: how it was won, who won it, and what we had called before kickoff.
At a glance
| Game | Final | We said | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL 28-20 | Wrong |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX 27-17 | Right |
| Bears at Packers | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI 24-21 | Wrong |
| Bengals at Dolphins | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN 24-17 | Right |
| Raiders at Patriots | LV 17, NE 45 | LV 24-21 | Wrong |
| Vikings at Saints | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN 23-17 | Right |
| Browns at Jets | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE 20-17 | Wrong |
| Colts at Steelers | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT 23-20 | Right |
| Texans at Titans | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU 21-14 | Right |
| Giants at Commanders | NYG 27, WAS 27 (OT) | WAS 23-20 | Wrong |
| Broncos at Chargers | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN 24-17 | Right |
| Lions at Cardinals | DET 45, ARI 21 | DET 30-24 | Right |
| 49ers at Seahawks | SF 32, SEA 29 | SF 24-21 | Right |
| Ravens at Falcons | BAL 30, ATL 23 (OT) | ATL 24-20 | Wrong |
| Bills at Rams | BUF 37, LAR 34 (OT) | LAR 28-24 | Wrong |
How far off our margin was (points between our predicted margin and the real one, 0–30 scale; blue = right winner, orange = wrong winner or tie)
Game 1 of 15 · Thursday · AT&T Stadium
Buccaneers 24 at Cowboys 16
Tampa Bay arrived 0-4, starting an undrafted rookie on the road against an offense averaging 30 points. Dallas scored on its opening drive, a 70-yard march finished by Javonte Williams, and led 10-7 at the half. Then Bucky Irving broke a 72-yard run early in the third quarter, Emeka Egbuka scored on a jet sweep, and the game turned over.
Jalon Daniels was efficient rather than spectacular: 19 of 25 for 189 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Irving did the rest, 165 yards on 21 carries with a rushing and a receiving touchdown. Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards but was intercepted twice, the second by Alex Anzalone at the Tampa 12 with about a minute left. George Pickens caught nine for 130. Tampa Bay has its first win; Dallas is 2-3.
Who decided it
Bucky Irving, TB — 21 carries, 165 yards, a rushing and a receiving TD
Jalon Daniels, TB — 19/25, 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in his second start
Alex Anzalone, TB — the interception that ended it
Our call: Cowboys 28-20, 72% to win. Missed. Lost by 8; a 16-point miss.
Game 2 of 15 · Sunday · London
Eagles 17 vs. Jaguars 19
Jacksonville committed 13 penalties for 100 yards, reached the 1-yard line twice without scoring, had a kickoff-return touchdown wiped out and missed an extra point on a bad snap. It won anyway. Cam Little hit a 57-yard field goal as time expired, set up by an Ameer Abdullah return.
The Jaguars pressured Jalen Hurts on 54.8% of his dropbacks but sacked him only once, and Philadelphia twice strip-sacked Trevor Lawrence in the first half without recovering either. Parker Washington made two big catches in the red zone, including a one-handed fourth-quarter touchdown. Jacksonville is 4-1; Philadelphia, without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, is 2-3.
Who decided it
Cam Little, JAX — the 57-yard walk-off field goal
Parker Washington, JAX — two long catches and a one-handed fourth-quarter TD
Jacksonville pass rush — pressure on 54.8% of Hurts’s dropbacks
Our call: Jaguars 27-17, 77% to win. Right. Right winner; the margin was 8 points too wide.
Game 3 of 15 · Sunday · Lambeau Field
Bears 7 at Packers 31
Chicago was favored at Lambeau for the first time since 2006, with its third-string quarterback. Green Bay took the ball away five times. Tyson Bagent threw two interceptions and was pulled for Case Keenum in the fourth quarter, and the Bears finished with 246 yards.
Jordan Love completed 80.6% of his passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns, both long ones to Christian Watson. Rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton had a sack, five pressures and a fumble recovery. The one blemish for Green Bay was its rookie kicker, Trey Smack, who missed two field goals and an extra point. Both teams are 3-2.
Who decided it
Jordan Love, GB — 367 yards, 2 TD, 80.6% completions
Christian Watson, GB — two long touchdown catches
Green Bay defense — five takeaways
Our call: Bears 24-21, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 24; a 27-point miss.
Game 4 of 15 · Sunday · Hard Rock Stadium
Bengals 31 at Dolphins 24
Ja’Marr Chase spent the week in the concussion protocol and played, and his 45-yard touchdown was the longest play of a game Cincinnati controlled until the end. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns on 23-of-32 passing for 190 yards, and the Bengals led 28-10 entering the fourth quarter.
Miami ran for 217 yards, 88 of them from rookie Ollie Gordon II, and Malik Willis added 74 rushing yards and a touchdown to two late scores that made it look close. Willis also threw two interceptions. The Dolphins are 0-5; Cincinnati is 3-2.
Who decided it
Joe Burrow, CIN — 23/32, 190 yards, 4 TD
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN — 6 catches, 77 yards, a 45-yard TD
Malik Willis, MIA — 74 rushing yards and a TD, but two interceptions
Our call: Bengals 24-17, 70% to win. Right. Exact margin; 14 points light on scoring.
Game 5 of 15 · Sunday · Gillette Stadium
Raiders 17 at Patriots 45
The Raiders came in 3-1 with the league’s takeaway leader, against a New England secondary down to its fourth and fifth corners. New England never trailed. Drake Maye threw four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth, and Elijah Ponder had two sacks and four pressures.
Las Vegas ran for 38 yards. Kirk Cousins was replaced by rookie Fernando Mendoza, who went 6 of 8 for 48 yards and turned it over on downs on his only drive. The Patriots lost left tackle Will Campbell (knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) during the game. Both teams are 3-2.
Who decided it
Drake Maye, NE — 4 TD passes and a rushing TD
Elijah Ponder, NE — 2 sacks, 4 pressures
New England run defense — 38 Raiders rushing yards
Our call: Raiders 24-21, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 28; a 31-point miss, our worst of the week.
Game 6 of 15 · Sunday · Caesars Superdome
Vikings 23 at Saints 13
Minnesota lost two fumbles in the red zone, and New Orleans returned one 87 yards for its only touchdown. It did not matter. The Saints gained 142 yards. Tyler Shough was 16 of 25 for 96 yards with two interceptions, both to Byron Murphy Jr.
Kyler Murray completed 24 of 30 for 229 yards and a touchdown and ran for 51 more. Aaron Jones carried 25 times for 113 yards and a score, Justin Jefferson caught a touchdown, and Will Reichard made field goals from 54 and 55 yards to stay perfect on the season. Minnesota is 5-0.
Who decided it
Kyler Murray, MIN — 24/30, 229 yards, 1 TD, 51 rushing yards
Aaron Jones, MIN — 25 carries, 113 yards, 1 TD
Byron Murphy Jr., MIN — two interceptions
Our call: Vikings 23-17, 67% to win. Right. Right winner; 4 points short on the margin.
Game 7 of 15 · Sunday · MetLife Stadium
Browns 12 at Jets 17
The Jets turned the ball over four times, committed 10 penalties for 102 yards and snapped one over their punter’s head late. They still won, because David Bailey and the pass rush sacked Deshaun Watson eight times. Bailey had three sacks and nine pressures on his own.
Braelon Allen scored on a 22-yard run and Garrett Wilson caught a 32-yard touchdown; the two combined for 220 yards. Cleveland’s Isaiah Bond dropped three passes, and rookie KC Concepcion left in the first quarter with a head injury. Three straight close wins for the Browns ended at 3-2. The Jets are 2-3.
Who decided it
David Bailey, NYJ — 3 sacks, 9 pressures
Braelon Allen and Garrett Wilson, NYJ — 220 combined yards and both touchdowns
Jets pass rush — 8 sacks of Watson
Our call: Browns 20-17, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 5.
Game 8 of 15 · Sunday · Acrisure Stadium
Colts 22 at Steelers 34
Aaron Rodgers threw his way past Peyton Manning on the all-time touchdown list, and Jaylen Warren did the damage: an 80-yard touchdown catch and a 50-yard touchdown run, 188 yards from scrimmage. Pat Freiermuth caught two touchdowns and Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals.
Pittsburgh led 7-3 early and never trailed. Jonathan Taylor, the reason we gave Indianapolis a chance in the rain, was held to 45 yards on 15 carries. The Colts, without Michael Pittman, are 2-3; the Steelers are 3-2.
Who decided it
Jaylen Warren, PIT — 188 yards from scrimmage, 80-yard TD catch, 50-yard TD run
Aaron Rodgers, PIT — passed Peyton Manning on the career TD list
Spencer Shrader, PIT — five field goals
Our call: Steelers 23-20, 59% to win. Right. Right winner; 9 points short on the margin.
Game 9 of 15 · Sunday · Nissan Stadium
Texans 26 at Titans 3
Two winless teams, and only one of them looked like it. Houston kicked four first-half field goals, then opened the third quarter with a 17-play, 74-yard touchdown drive. C.J. Stroud completed 26 of 34 for 260 yards with a touchdown pass and a touchdown run.
Will Anderson Jr. sacked Cam Ward three times and Danielle Hunter added a sack and seven pressures. Ward finished 23 of 36 for 170 yards with an interception. Houston is 1-4; Tennessee is 0-5.
Who decided it
C.J. Stroud, HOU — 26/34, 260 yards, 1 TD, plus a rushing TD
Will Anderson Jr., HOU — 3 sacks
Danielle Hunter, HOU — 7 pressures, 1 sack
Our call: Texans 21-14, 70% to win. Right. Right winner; 16 points short on the margin.
Game 10 of 15 · Sunday · Northwest Stadium
Giants 27 at Commanders 27
Jayden Daniels came back from a dislocated elbow wearing a brace and ran anyway: 109 yards on nine carries and two rushing touchdowns, plus 17 of 25 for 199 yards through the air. Malik Nabers caught 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown for the Giants.
Overtime ended without a winner. Cam Skattebo fumbled on his third straight carry, giving Washington the ball, but the Commanders had no timeouts and could not get a clock-stopping play off before time ran out. A tie: the Giants are 3-1-1, Washington 1-3-1.
Who decided it
Jayden Daniels, WAS — 109 rushing yards and 2 TD in his return
Malik Nabers, NYG — 11 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD
Cam Skattebo, NYG — the overtime fumble
Our call: Commanders 23-20, 59% to win. Missed. A tie is not a win; scored as a miss, for us and for the favorite.
Game 11 of 15 · Sunday · SoFi Stadium
Broncos 23 at Chargers 17
Denver trailed 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, playing without Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss. It scored 13 unanswered on the back of takeaways and a fourth-down stop. Bo Nix threw for only 123 yards, but his 5-yard touchdown to Courtland Sutton counted, and Ja’Quan McMillian finished it with a sack.
Justin Herbert went 14 of 24 for 121 yards with an interception and two fumbles behind an offensive line starting four rookies, without Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard run was the Chargers’ best moment. Los Angeles is 0-5; Denver is 3-2.
Who decided it
Denver defense — takeaways and a fourth-down stop in a 13-0 fourth quarter
Courtland Sutton, DEN — the go-ahead touchdown catch
Ja’Quan McMillian, DEN — the game-ending sack
Our call: Broncos 24-17, 70% to win. Right. One point off the margin.
Game 12 of 15 · Sunday · State Farm Stadium
Lions 45 at Cardinals 21
Detroit led 24-7 at halftime and held Arizona without a third-down conversion in the first half. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns, Jared Goff threw three touchdowns without an interception, and Jameson Williams scored twice on two catches.
Jacoby Brissett was 9 of 21 at the half. Trey McBride caught nine for 66 and a touchdown. Arizona played without Marvin Harrison Jr., held out while the team tries to trade him. The Lions are 3-2; the Cardinals 1-4.
Who decided it
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 25 carries, 151 yards, 2 TD
Jared Goff, DET — 3 TD, no interceptions
Jameson Williams, DET — 2 catches, 2 TD
Our call: Lions 30-24, 67% to win. Right. Right winner; 18 points short on the margin.
Game 13 of 15 · Sunday · Lumen Field
49ers 32 at Seahawks 29
The rematch of January’s 41-6 playoff game was decided by turnovers. San Francisco forced four: Renardo Green intercepted Sam Darnold twice, Fred Warner forced a fumble, and Gracen Halton stripped George Holani and recovered in the end zone 18 seconds before halftime. Darnold was sacked five times.
Seattle still led 26-21 in the fourth quarter. Mike Evans, seven catches for 113 yards, carried a 74-yard drive that ended in Brock Purdy’s touchdown to Brandin Cooks, and caught the two-point conversion. Eddy Pineiro’s 44-yard field goal won it with two minutes left, and Cooper Kupp was ruled short on fourth-and-10. San Francisco is 5-0.
Who decided it
Mike Evans, SF — 7 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD, the 2-point conversion
Renardo Green, SF — two interceptions
San Francisco pass rush — 5 sacks of Darnold
Our call: 49ers 24-21, 59% to win. Right. Exact margin. One of three games where we went against the betting favorite.
Game 14 of 15 · Sunday night · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Ravens 30 at Falcons 23
Lamar Jackson’s ankle kept him out, and for a half it showed: Atlanta sacked Tyler Huntley four times and the Ravens’ offense barely moved. Kyle Pitts caught an early touchdown and Drake London finished with seven catches for 118 yards.
Huntley’s three touchdowns, two passing and one running, all came after halftime, including the late drive that forced overtime. Michael Penix Jr. took a shot to the ribs late in the fourth quarter, and Tua Tagovailoa finished. Huntley and Derrick Henry scored the only touchdown of overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tagovailoa to end it. Baltimore is 4-1 and alone in first in the AFC North.
Who decided it
Tyler Huntley, BAL — 2 TD passes, a rushing TD, the tying drive
Kyle Hamilton, BAL — the game-ending interception
Drake London, ATL — 7 catches, 118 yards
Our call: Falcons 24-20, 62% to win. Missed. Lost by 7 in overtime.
Game 15 of 15 · Monday · SoFi Stadium
Bills 37 at Rams 34
The first half produced 20 points. The game produced 71, 890 yards and eight lead changes. James Cook’s 5-yard run gave Buffalo a 34-27 lead with 1:39 left; Matthew Stafford answered with a 63-yard drive in 94 seconds, and Kyren Williams tied it with five seconds to go.
Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns, and Puka Nacua caught 17 passes, a Monday Night Football record, for 138 yards. In overtime Cook fumbled, Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’s 48-yard try, and Josh Allen ran for 19 and 13 on the drive to Tyler Bass’s winning 45-yarder. Allen ran for 121 yards. Buffalo is 4-1; the Rams are 2-3.
Who decided it
Josh Allen, BUF — 10 carries, 121 yards, 1 rushing TD; 210 passing yards
Puka Nacua, LAR — 17 catches, 138 yards, 1 TD
Greg Rousseau, BUF — blocked the overtime field goal
Our call: Rams 28-24, 62% to win. Missed. Lost by 3 in overtime.
What We Got Wrong
Patriots 45, Raiders 17. Our worst miss of the week, 31 points, on a game where we went against the market. We picked Las Vegas because New England was down to its fourth and fifth corners and Kirk Cousins does not take sacks. The Raiders ran for 38 yards, Cousins was benched, and Drake Maye accounted for five touchdowns. We built the pick on one matchup and ignored that the Patriots’ offense had just scored 29 in Buffalo. That is a real miss, not bad luck.
Packers 31, Bears 7. We sided with the market and the Bears, 59%, and missed by 27. Our own preview named the danger: Bagent’s turnover rate, six interceptions in five career starts. Green Bay won by exactly that route, five takeaways. We wrote the risk down and then priced it as if a third-string quarterback were an average one.
The backup quarterbacks. Daniels beat Dallas, Huntley beat Atlanta, Winston’s Giants tied Washington, and Bagent lost by 24. We picked against Daniels, Huntley and Winston and for Bagent, and missed all four. Four games is not a pattern on its own, but Week 3 went the same way, when four fill-in quarterbacks went 4-0. We are now tracking these games separately.
Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. We had Dallas by eight at 72%, our most confident wrong call. The thing we told you to watch was Daniels’s legs; he ran for 23 yards. Tampa Bay won on Bucky Irving’s 165 rushing yards and two Prescott interceptions, which is closer to the Bucs’ defense-first case than to anything we expected from Dallas.
Ravens 30, Falcons 23 and Bills 37, Rams 34. Two 62% calls that lost in overtime, one after a touchdown with five seconds left. Those are coin flips that landed the other way, and there is no lesson in them. Browns at Jets was the same kind of game: a 59% call on our side of a near pick’em, lost by five.
The right winners that weren’t right. Detroit won by 24 when we said six; Houston by 23 when we said seven. Getting those winners right says little about how well we read the games.
What We Got Right
49ers 32, Seahawks 29. Our one pick against the favorite that won, and the exact margin. The reasons we gave, Purdy’s quick release and Seattle’s soft schedule, were not really why: San Francisco won on four takeaways and five sacks. Right result, partly wrong reasons.
Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 and Broncos 23, Chargers 17. An exact margin and one a point off. Both were favorites by close to those numbers in the market, so most of the credit belongs to the line, not to us.
Vikings 23, Saints 13. We gave Minnesota more than the market did (six points against a line of 1.5) and the Vikings won by ten. We said to watch Tyler Shough against the blitz, and that he was finished if he took sacks; he threw for 96 yards and two interceptions.
The underdog cases that came true. For Green Bay we wrote that Bagent’s turnovers would hand the Packers short fields, and that is how they won. For Buffalo we wrote that Josh Allen could win a shootout on his own; he ran for 121 yards in a 37-34 game. Naming the right path for the team that beat us is useful only if we weigh it next time.
The Week That Was
Two left unbeaten. San Francisco and Minnesota are 5-0. The 49ers won the week’s best regular-season game in Seattle, and the Vikings won ugly in New Orleans, which is how they have won most weeks.
Three left winless. Tennessee, Miami and the Chargers are 0-5. Houston and Tampa Bay got their first wins, the Texans by 23 in Nashville and the Bucs with an undrafted rookie on Thursday night.
The fill-ins. Huntley led Baltimore back from a quiet first half and into sole possession of first in the AFC North. Daniels, in his second start, completed 19 of 25 in Dallas. Bagent lost his job to Case Keenum for the fourth quarter at Lambeau.
Monday night. Seventy-one points, eight lead changes, a tying touchdown with five seconds left, a fumble and a blocked field goal in overtime, then a Josh Allen drive. Puka Nacua’s 17 catches are a Monday Night Football record.
Milestones and oddities. Aaron Rodgers passed Peyton Manning on the career touchdown list. Will Reichard is 15 of 15 on field goals. Jacksonville won in London on a 57-yard field goal despite 13 penalties. Kirk Cousins was benched for rookie Fernando Mendoza in a 28-point loss. And Washington and the Giants played to a tie because the Commanders, out of timeouts, could not stop the clock.
Injuries That Change Things
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (ankle). Missed the game; Huntley is now 1-0 in his place and Baltimore leads the division. Whether Jackson plays in Week 6 is the biggest quarterback question of the week.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (ribs). Left late in the fourth quarter; MRI pending, though he has said he expects to play next week. If he can’t, Tua Tagovailoa starts.
Javon Hargrave, Packers (Achilles, believed torn). Season-ending if confirmed, a blow to a Green Bay front that was already missing defensive starters.
Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots. The left tackle’s knee awaits an MRI; rookie Caleb Lomu replaced him. Henderson’s ankle could cost him an extended stretch.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers (hamstring). MRI pending; early reports suggest he could miss some time. San Francisco just showed it can win without its offense at its best.
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (concussion). Must clear the protocol to play in Week 6; Jordan Addison (ankle) was already inactive.
Also hurt: Houston’s David Montgomery (groin) and Jalen Pitre (shoulder); Philadelphia’s Will Shipley (foot) and Jalyx Hunt (lower leg); Cleveland’s KC Concepcion (head); the Jets’ Kenyon Sadiq (concussion). Indianapolis is without Michael Pittman for at least three more games, and Chicago expects Caleb Williams back in Week 6.
The Season So Far
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite, season (games won out of 79, Weeks 1–5)
Winners picked by week (share of games picked right; games in brackets)
Five weeks in, we are 46-33 picking winners (58%). Taking the favorite every time would be 49-30 (62%). Week 4 is the one week we have finished clearly ahead of the favorites, and the gap is back to three games.
Our picks against the betting favorite are 4-11 for the season. Each was made at 53–59% confidence, so we should have expected to win about six of them. That is still a small sample, but it is the clearest sign so far that when we disagree with the market, the market is usually right.
The games we called with the most confidence are holding up: picks at 70–79% have won 18 of 25 (72%). The ones at 50–59% have won 15 of 33 (45%), less often than a coin flip, though not yet by enough to rule out chance.
Scoring is the steadiest miss. Over 79 games our total-points forecasts have run 3.3 points low on average, and they ran 4.6 low this week despite the adjustment we made after Week 4.
Not betting advice. The forecasts graded here are a model’s estimates and will be wrong in both directions; they are published so they can be scored, and this page is the scoring.