NFL 2026 · Week 6 in review · Thursday Oct 15 – Monday Oct 19
| Published Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026 14 games, Thursday to Monday (1 in London) Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota on bye Our picks: 6-8 · the favorites: 9-5 | Games in this recap 14 of 14 played |
The Week in One Line
A losing week, and the worst of the season against the market: 6 right, 8 wrong, three games worse than simply taking the betting favorite in every game (9-5). The whole gap is in the three games where we disagreed with the market. We picked Atlanta, the Giants and Tampa Bay to beat the favorites, and all three lost. Had we taken the favorite in those three, we would have matched the market exactly.
Five favorites lost — Seattle, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Indianapolis and the Rams — and we had every one of them winning, three of them at 70% or more. Over the season we are now six games behind the favorites, 52-41 against 58-35.
The Scorecard
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite (games won out of 14, Week 6)
Picks against the betting favorite (games won, Week 6 and season)
| Measure | Week 6 | Season (93 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Winners picked | 6-8 | 52-41 |
| Taking every favorite | 9-5 | 58-35 |
| Average miss on the final margin | 7.3 pts | 9.8 pts |
| Average miss on total points | 11.3 pts | 11.1 pts |
| Against the spread | 6-7 (1 no pick) | 40-46 |
| Over/under lean | 5-9 | 44-48 |
Our average miss on the margin, 7.3 points, was our best since Week 4 and below the season average. It did not help, because the misses fell on the wrong side of the result: eight of our fourteen predicted winners lost, four of them by three points or fewer.
Scoring went the other way from recent weeks. Our total-points forecasts ran 2.0 points high on average. The two biggest misses pointed in opposite directions: Texans-Jaguars produced 65 points against our 44, and Cowboys-Packers 36 against our 54. Nine of fourteen games went against the over/under lean we printed.
Game by Game
Every game, in the order it was played: how it was won, who won it, and what we had called before kickoff.
At a glance
| Game | Final | We said | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | SEA 14, DEN 17 | SEA 23-20 | Wrong |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX 24-20 | Wrong |
| Bears at Falcons | CHI 31, ATL 23 | ATL 27-24 | Wrong |
| Ravens at Browns | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL 24-17 | Wrong |
| Titans at Colts | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND 24-17 | Wrong |
| Jets at Patriots | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE 23-17 | Right |
| Saints at Giants | NO 34, NYG 27 | NYG 24-20 | Wrong |
| Panthers at Eagles | CAR 25, PHI 14 | CAR 23-17 | Right |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | PIT 26, TB 19 | TB 20-17 | Wrong |
| Cardinals at Rams | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA 31-20 | Wrong |
| Chargers at Chiefs | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC 27-17 | Right |
| Bills at Raiders | BUF 33, LV 30 | BUF 30-27 | Right |
| Cowboys at Packers | DAL 13, GB 23 | GB 30-24 | Right |
| Commanders at 49ers | WAS 17, SF 23 | SF 31-20 | Right |
How far off our margin was (points between our predicted margin and the real one, 0–30 scale; blue = right winner, orange = wrong winner)
Game 1 of 14 · Thursday · Empower Field at Mile High
Seahawks 14 at Broncos 17
Denver gained 168 yards and won anyway. The Broncos led 14-3 at the half on short touchdown runs by J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, then managed 38 yards on 25 plays after halftime while Seattle came back. George Holani’s 1-yard run and a two-point pass to Rashid Shaheed made it 14-11, and after Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted Sam Darnold at the Denver 30, Jason Myers tied it with a 34-yard field goal with three seconds left.
Seattle got the ball first in overtime and lost it on the first series: Ja’Quan McMillian undercut a sideline throw to Shaheed, and Wil Lutz kicked a 53-yarder without Denver needing a first down. Darnold threw for 278 yards on 51 attempts, was sacked five times and hit 17 times; Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 12 for 134. Denver is 4-2, Seattle 3-3.
Who decided it
Ja’Quan McMillian, DEN — a sack and the overtime interception
Wil Lutz, DEN — the 53-yard walk-off field goal
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA — 12 catches, 134 yards
Our call: Seahawks 23-20, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 3 in overtime; a 6-point miss.
Game 2 of 14 · Sunday · Wembley Stadium, London
Texans 34 vs. Jaguars 31
The total was 42.5 and the game produced 65 points. Houston led 31-21 after three quarters on Jawhar Jordan’s 25-yard run. Trevor Lawrence threw his fourth touchdown, to Travis Hunter, to make it 31-28, and Hunter then intercepted C.J. Stroud in the end zone — Stroud’s first interception of the season. Cam Little tied it from 60 yards with 1:55 left.
Stroud answered with the drive that mattered, and Ka’imi Fairbairn hit a 49-yarder as time expired. Stroud finished 24 of 34 for 312 yards and three touchdowns; Jaylin Noel caught four for 107. Marvin Harrison Jr., traded to Houston during the week, caught three for 34 in his debut. Neither defense recorded a sack, according to the CBS box score. Houston is 2-4, Jacksonville 4-2.
Who decided it
C.J. Stroud, HOU — 24/34, 312 yards, 3 TD, and the winning drive
Ka’imi Fairbairn, HOU — 49-yard field goal at the gun
Travis Hunter, JAX — a touchdown catch and an interception
Our call: Jaguars 24-20, 62% to win. Missed. Lost by 3; a 7-point miss, and 21 points short on the total.
Game 3 of 14 · Sunday · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Bears 31 at Falcons 23
Caleb Williams came back from three missed games and completed his first 12 passes. He finished 30 of 36 for 305 yards, Chicago led 21-7 at the half and 31-7 early in the fourth quarter, and the Bears held the ball for 40 minutes. Atlanta muffed a punt at its own 10, which became a D’Andre Swift touchdown, and lost a kickoff return fumble.
Michael Penix Jr., playing through a rib injury, threw two late touchdowns to Kyle Pitts and Atlanta scored 16 straight, but Kyler Gordon’s strip-sack with 2:54 left ended it — one of his three sacks. Bijan Robinson carried nine times. Safety Kendal Daniels was taken to hospital with a neck injury; he was alert and moving his extremities. Chicago is 4-2, Atlanta 2-4.
Who decided it
Caleb Williams, CHI — 30/36, 305 yards, 1 TD in his return
Kyler Gordon, CHI — 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
Luther Burden, CHI — 8 catches, 95 yards
Our call: Falcons 27-24, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 8; an 11-point miss on a pick against the favorite.
Game 4 of 14 · Sunday · Huntington Bank Field
Ravens 10 at Browns 13
Lamar Jackson missed a second straight game with his ankle, and Tyler Huntley started. Baltimore led 10-0 at the half and did almost nothing after it; Derrick Henry had 17 yards over the last three quarters. In the fourth, Carson Schwesinger forced Henry’s first fumble of the season, Tyson Campbell recovered at the Baltimore 35, and Audric Estime tied it from two yards out.
Deshaun Watson then drove Cleveland 62 yards. Andre Szmyt’s 42-yard try was blocked, but Baltimore was offside, and Szmyt made the 37-yarder on the untimed down. The Browns did not turn the ball over. Cleveland and Baltimore are both 4-2, tied atop the AFC North, and the Ravens have again lost a double-digit lead.
Who decided it
Carson Schwesinger, CLE — forced the Henry fumble that turned the game
Andre Szmyt, CLE — the 37-yard walk-off, one snap after a block was wiped out
Deshaun Watson, CLE — 16/26, 164 yards, no turnovers
Our call: Ravens 24-17, 70% to win. Missed. Lost by 3; a 10-point miss. The forecast assumed Jackson would play.
Game 5 of 14 · Sunday · Lucas Oil Stadium
Titans 26 at Colts 20
Indianapolis led 13-0 at the half and had outgained Tennessee 232 to 64. Then the Titans scored 26 straight points without much offense: Joey Slye field goals from 29 and 56, a 58-yard Chimere Dike punt return that set up Cam Ward’s 8-yard touchdown to Carnell Tate, and Oluwafemi Oladejo’s return of a blocked punt for a touchdown.
Jonathan Taylor tied it at 20, and Slye won it with field goals from 49 and 44 in the last two minutes. Ward threw for 102 yards. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions, one in the red zone in the first quarter, and Tennessee had six sacks, two each for Jeffery Simmons and Jermaine Johnson II. It is the Titans’ first win. On Monday the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard; Shane Steichen stays, and so does Jones.
Who decided it
Joey Slye, TEN — 4 of 4 field goals, including 56 and the late 49 and 44
Oluwafemi Oladejo, TEN — blocked-punt return touchdown
Jeffery Simmons, TEN — 2 sacks and a forced fumble
Our call: Colts 24-17, 70% to win. Missed. Lost by 6; a 13-point miss.
Game 6 of 14 · Sunday · Gillette Stadium
Jets 19 at Patriots 26
Drake Maye threw touchdowns of 42 yards to Romeo Doubs and 9 to DeMario Douglas, and New England led 17-3 at the half. The Jets got within 17-13 on Geno Smith’s long touchdown to Omar Cooper Jr., and Maye answered with a 7-yarder to Hunter Henry. Charles Woods intercepted Smith’s deep ball, Smith’s first interception of the season, and New England recovered an onside kick at the end.
Maye was not sacked. Will Campbell returned at left tackle from his knee injury, and rookie Caleb Lomu moved to right tackle for the injured Morgan Moses. The Jets held New England out of the end zone on all three red-zone trips and recovered two fumbles, but went 0 for 3 in the red zone themselves. New England is 4-2, the Jets 2-4.
Who decided it
Drake Maye, NE — 18/32, 235 yards, 3 TD, not sacked
Charles Woods, NE — the fourth-quarter interception
Omar Cooper Jr., NYJ — 6 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD
Our call: Patriots 23-17, 67% to win. Right. Won by 7; a 1-point miss, and the Jets covered as we had it.
Game 7 of 14 · Sunday · MetLife Stadium
Saints 34 at Giants 27
The Giants led 10-0 and then gave up 34 straight points. Jameis Winston threw two interceptions, Martin Emerson Jr. had two of New Orleans’ three, and Tyler Shough, playing with broken bones in his non-throwing hand, threw three touchdowns and ran in a fourth. The Saints ran for 175 yards; Kendre Miller had 20 carries.
Winston was benched in the fourth quarter for J.J. McCarthy, who threw for 243 yards in about eleven minutes and nearly finished the comeback. With 12 seconds left, on fourth-and-1 from the New Orleans 14, his throw to Isaiah Likely fell incomplete. Malik Nabers caught 12 for 165. The Giants would not name next week’s starter. New Orleans is 2-4; the Giants are 3-2-1.
Who decided it
Tyler Shough, NO — 3 TD passes and a TD run, playing hurt
Martin Emerson Jr., NO — 2 interceptions
Malik Nabers, NYG — 12 catches, 165 yards
Our call: Giants 24-20, 62% to win. Missed. Lost by 7; an 11-point miss on a pick against the favorite.
Game 8 of 14 · Sunday · Lincoln Financial Field
Panthers 25 at Eagles 14
Jalen Hurts did not play. A blood clot found in his calf had moved, he was ruled out after Wednesday’s scan and went on injured reserve, and on Monday the team disclosed deep vein thrombosis and clots in both lungs; he is likely out for the season. Tanner McKee made his third career start, Saquon Barkley missed a second game, and Philadelphia punted on its first five possessions.
Carolina led 10-7 at the half and pulled away behind Chuba Hubbard, 28 carries for 120 yards, including a 19-yard run on fourth-and-1. McKee hit DeVonta Smith to make it 19-14; Bryce Young answered with a 19-yard touchdown to Tommy Tremble with 6:33 left. It is Philadelphia’s fourth straight loss, its first such streak under Nick Sirianni, who said “everything’s on the table.” Carolina is 3-2, Philadelphia 2-4.
Who decided it
Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 28 carries, 120 yards, 1 TD
Bryce Young, CAR — 281 yards, 2 TD, no turnovers
Tommy Tremble, CAR — 2 touchdown catches
Our call: Panthers 23-17, 67% to win. Right. Won by 11; a 5-point miss. The forecast was built expecting Hurts to play.
Game 9 of 14 · Sunday · Raymond James Stadium
Steelers 26 at Buccaneers 19
Tampa Bay led 16-3 entering the fourth quarter. Then Aaron Rodgers hit Darnell Washington for a touchdown, Daylen Everette intercepted Jalon Daniels to set up a field goal, and Chris Boswell tied it from 58 with 1:55 left. Jamel Dean intercepted Daniels again and returned it to the 2, Boswell kicked Pittsburgh ahead, and Chase McLaughlin’s 53-yarder with eight seconds left forced overtime.
Pittsburgh took the overtime kickoff and went 70 yards in 12 plays, finished by Rodgers to Germie Bernard. Tampa Bay reached midfield and Jalen Ramsey, playing with a broken wrist, sacked Daniels on fourth-and-8. Bucky Irving ran 19 times for 46 yards a week after his 165. Rodgers’ two touchdowns tied Peyton Manning’s career total, by the AP’s count. Pittsburgh is 4-2; Tampa Bay, still without Baker Mayfield, is 1-5.
Who decided it
Jalen Ramsey, PIT — 2 sacks, including the one that ended it
Chris Boswell, PIT — 4 of 5 field goals, including the 58-yard tying kick
Jamel Dean, PIT — the interception that set up the go-ahead field goal
Our call: Buccaneers 20-17, 59% to win. Missed. Lost by 7 in overtime; a 10-point miss on a pick against the favorite.
Game 10 of 14 · Sunday · SoFi Stadium
Cardinals 18 at Rams 16
Arizona went 0 for 5 in the red zone and won anyway, because Chad Ryland made six field goals. The Rams had three three-and-outs and under 100 yards in the first half. Their kicker, Blake Grupe, made a 44-yarder and tore his ACL making a tackle on the next kickoff, so punter Ethan Evans kicked the go-ahead extra point late; a two-point try earlier had failed.
Matthew Stafford found Colby Parkinson for a 6-yard touchdown with 47 seconds left, after replay overturned a down-at-the-1 ruling, to lead 16-15. Jacoby Brissett hit Jalen Brooks for 21, a roughing penalty added 15, and Ryland won it from 43 at the gun. The Rams also lost Davante Adams for six to ten weeks and Poona Ford for the season. Both teams are 2-4.
Who decided it
Chad Ryland, ARI — 6 of 6 field goals, all 18 points, the last as time expired
Cody Simon, ARI — forced a fourth-quarter fumble
Zonovan Knight, ARI — 15 carries, 80 yards
Our call: Rams 31-20, 79% to win. Missed. Lost by 2; a 13-point miss, and our most confident wrong call.
Game 11 of 14 · Sunday · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Chargers 6 at Chiefs 22
Kansas City led 19-3 at the half and that was the game. Kenneth Walker III ran 19 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns and leads the league in rushing. Patrick Mahomes went 23 of 30 for 272 yards and was not sacked; Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a field goal and it did not matter.
Justin Herbert was sacked four times. The Chargers converted 5 of 16 third downs, 0 of 3 fourth downs and 0 of 3 red-zone trips, and lost Ladd McConkey to a concussion. It is their worst start since 2000; and Jim Harbaugh said the team will “look at everything,” including its offensive coordinator. Kansas City is 5-0.
Who decided it
Kenneth Walker III, KC — 19 carries, 128 yards, 2 TD
Kansas City pass rush — 4 sacks; Chargers 5 of 16 on third down
Patrick Mahomes, KC — 23/30, 272 yards, not sacked
Our call: Chiefs 27-17, 77% to win. Right. Won by 16; a 6-point miss.
Game 12 of 14 · Sunday · Allegiant Stadium
Bills 33 at Raiders 30
Buffalo, which had turned it over nine times in three weeks, did not turn it over once. It was 13-13 at the half. Josh Allen escaped a sack and found Keon Coleman for a 12-yard touchdown, and when Las Vegas had second-and-goal at the 1 trailing by 10, Greg Gaines stuffed Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders settled for a field goal.
Tre Tucker’s second touchdown tied it at 23. James Cook took a 26-yard catch and then scored from three, Tyler Bass made his fourth field goal, and Tucker’s 44-yard touchdown with 1:32 left only closed it to three. Cook had 95 rushing yards and 58 receiving. Buffalo is 5-1; Las Vegas has lost three straight and is 3-3.
Who decided it
James Cook, BUF — 22 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD; 3 catches, 58 yards
Josh Allen, BUF — 255 yards, 2 TD, no turnovers
Greg Gaines, BUF — the goal-line stop
Our call: Bills 30-27, 59% to win. Right. Won by 3, exactly the predicted margin, and the Raiders covered as we had it.
Game 13 of 14 · Sunday night · Lambeau Field
Cowboys 13 at Packers 23
Dallas was shut out in a first half for the first time since 2021. Dak Prescott threw interceptions on consecutive second-quarter possessions inside the Green Bay 30, to Evan Williams and Brandon Cisse, and the Packers led 17-0 at the break. They could have led by more: Matthew Golden dropped two would-be touchdowns and Christian Watson one.
Golden still caught six for 104 and a touchdown, and Jordan Love threw for 276 and ran one in. CeeDee Lamb was targeted 18 times and caught nine for 70; George Pickens had six for 73. Dallas scored its touchdown with 44 seconds left. The game had 22 penalties and 36 points, 18 under the total. Green Bay is 4-2, Dallas 2-4.
Who decided it
Jordan Love, GB — 276 yards, 1 TD passing, 1 TD rushing
Matthew Golden, GB — 6 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD
Evan Williams and Brandon Cisse, GB — the two red-zone interceptions
Our call: Packers 30-24, 67% to win. Right. Won by 10; a 4-point miss, but 18 points high on the total.
Game 14 of 14 · Monday · Levi’s Stadium
Commanders 17 at 49ers 23
San Francisco led 20-3 at the half and had outgained Washington 303 to 90; George Kittle scored and Christian McCaffrey ran in two. Washington lost Terry McLaurin in the first quarter to a non-contact knee injury, and he left in an air cast. The 49ers lost Mike Evans late in the half to Achilles tendinitis, and their offense stalled after it.
Jayden Daniels threw for 300 yards and touchdowns to Stefon Diggs and Rachaad White to make it 23-17, but ran four times for 10 yards and Washington converted 3 of 12 third downs. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down throw near the goal line with 1:54 left, and Washington’s last drive ended in a grounding call and a sack. San Francisco is 6-0 for the first time since 2019; Washington is 1-4-1.
Who decided it
Brock Purdy, SF — 21/29, 264 yards, 1 TD
Malik Mustapha, SF — the fourth-down breakup
Jayden Daniels, WAS — 300 yards, 2 TD, but 10 rushing yards and 4 sacks
Our call: 49ers 31-20, 79% to win. Right. Won by 6; a 5-point miss, and Washington covered.
What We Got Wrong
Cardinals 18, Rams 16. Our most confident wrong call: Rams by 11 at 79%. The Rams had three three-and-outs in the first half and Arizona’s defense was the better unit all day; Chad Ryland’s six field goals did the rest. Part of this was variance — the Rams lost their kicker mid-game and a punter was kicking extra points in a two-point loss. But part of it was ours. The preview’s case for Arizona leaned on the Rams’ kicker, Harrison Mevis, who had been released before we published. We named a player who was no longer on the team, and we now check the kicker and other named starters against each club’s own transactions before Thursday.
Titans 26, Colts 20. Colts by 7 at 70%; they lost by 6, a 13-point miss. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 232 to 64 in the first half and led 13-0. The Titans won on a long punt return, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and four field goals. Special-teams swings like that are mostly not forecastable, and we would not change the number on this evidence.
The three picks against the favorite. Falcons by 3 (lost by 8), Giants by 4 (lost by 7), Buccaneers by 3 (lost by 7 in overtime), each at 59–62%. In two of the three we leaned on a quarterback who had not started in Week 1 — Jameis Winston was benched in the fourth quarter, and Jalon Daniels threw two fourth-quarter interceptions after Tampa Bay led 16-3 — and in Atlanta we expected Bijan Robinson to carry the game and he got nine carries. Picks against the favorite are now 4-14 for the season. At the confidence we gave them, we should have won about eight.
Browns 13, Ravens 10. Ravens by 7 at 70%, built on Lamar Jackson playing. He did not, and Tyler Huntley started. Our preview had also published the Huntley version, Ravens by 3; that would still have been wrong, by six points rather than ten. Baltimore led 10-0 and lost on a Derrick Henry fumble and a walk-off field goal.
Seahawks and Jaguars. Both close losses as small favorites, by 3. Seattle lost in overtime on an interception; Jacksonville on a field goal at the gun after tying it from 60 yards. These are coin flips that landed the other way, and we will treat them that way.
Eagles: right for the wrong reason. We had Carolina by 6 and they won by 11, but the preview described Jalen Hurts as healthy. He was ruled out after a scan on Wednesday and did not play. The winner was right; the reasoning behind it was out of date.
What We Got Right
Bills 33, Raiders 30. We said Bills 30-27, a 3-point win, when the market had Buffalo by 5.5. Buffalo won by exactly 3. This is the one game this week where we went against the line and the line was wrong. Our reasoning was a Buffalo defense that gives up points; Las Vegas scored 30. The thing we told you to watch, Josh Allen’s ball security, did not decide it the way we framed it — Buffalo had no turnovers and still won only by three.
Panthers over Eagles, Patriots over Jets, Packers over Cowboys. In each we leaned further toward the favorite than the market did, or less far, and the result came out on our side of the number. Carolina by 6 against a 1.5-point line won by 11; Green Bay by 6 against 1.5 won by 10; New England by 6 against 7.5 won by 7, so the Jets covered as we had it. The Eagles result owes more to Hurts’s absence than to anything we foresaw.
Chiefs and 49ers. Both favorites won, both by margins near ours. That was agreement with the market, not insight.
Two underdog cases that came true as written. For Cleveland we wrote that if Huntley started, this would be a field-goal game the Browns could win; it was 13-10 on a walk-off kick. For Denver we wrote that a Darnold turnover and a Wil Lutz field goal could decide a low game; Darnold threw an overtime interception and Lutz kicked the winner. We still picked the favorite in both games.
The Week That Was
Two unbeaten teams, both untested. San Francisco is 6-0 for the first time since 2019 and Kansas City is 5-0, and both beat struggling teams this week. Their schedules so far rank among the easiest in the league, and Minnesota, also unbeaten, was on bye. The 49ers won without their best offensive day: after Mike Evans left they scored three points in the second half.
The quarterback carousel kept turning. Caleb Williams returned in Atlanta and completed his first 12 passes. Jalen Hurts’s clot ended his season, most likely, and left Philadelphia with Tanner McKee and a four-game losing streak. The Giants benched Jameis Winston for J.J. McCarthy, who threw for 243 yards in a quarter and nearly tied the game. Lamar Jackson missed a second game, and Baker Mayfield is still out. Tyler Shough beat the Giants with a broken hand.
The kickers decided the week. Five games were won by field goals in the final seconds or overtime: Wil Lutz from 53 in Denver, Ka’imi Fairbairn from 49 in London, Andre Szmyt from 37 in Cleveland after a block was wiped out by an offside call, Joey Slye twice in the last two minutes in Indianapolis, and Chad Ryland from 43 at the gun at SoFi, his sixth of the day.
The bottom of the league. The Chargers are 0-6, their worst start since 2000, held to six points and 0 for 3 in the red zone, and Jim Harbaugh said everything is under review. Tennessee won for the first time, ending a six-game losing run against the Colts, and Indianapolis fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday. Tampa Bay is 1-5 after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead.
Worth knowing. Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing after 128 yards against the Chargers. Kyler Gordon had three sacks and two forced fumbles from the slot. Aaron Rodgers’ two touchdown passes moved him level with Peyton Manning on the career list, by the AP’s count. Travis Hunter scored a touchdown and intercepted a pass in the same game in London.
Injuries That Change Things
Jalen Hurts, Eagles (blood clots). Deep vein thrombosis in the calf and clots in both lungs, disclosed Monday. He is on blood thinners and on injured reserve, and is likely out for the season. Tanner McKee is the starter for a team that has lost four straight and has scored six third-quarter points all year.
Davante Adams, Rams (hamstring). A ruptured hamstring tendon; six to ten weeks. It leaves the Rams’ passing game leaning on Puka Nacua.
Rams defense and kicking. Blake Grupe (torn ACL) and nose tackle Poona Ford (ruptured triceps) are out for the season, and Kobie Turner (groin) is expected to miss several weeks. The Rams worked out Brandon McManus and Matt Prater on Monday; they are 2-4 and on their third kicker.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders (knee). A non-contact injury in the first quarter; he left in an air cast and the team fears it is significant. No diagnosis yet. Washington is 1-4-1.
Mike Evans, 49ers (Achilles tendinitis). Kyle Shanahan said no further tests were needed and it is not believed to be long-term. San Francisco’s offense managed three points after he left.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (ankle). Two missed games and counting; Baltimore scored 10 points with Huntley this week. His status is the biggest single number on next week’s Ravens line.
Kendal Daniels, Falcons (neck). Carted off and taken to hospital; he was alert and moving all his extremities.
Also hurt: Ladd McConkey (concussion) for a Chargers team now on its bye; Rashod Bateman (shoulder, Baltimore); Romeo Doubs (shoulder) and Morgan Moses (ankle) for New England; Dee Winters (Achilles strain) for Dallas; Sauce Gardner (calf) for Indianapolis. Josh Jacobs is eligible to return for Green Bay.
The Season So Far
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite, season (games won out of 93, Weeks 1–6)
Winners picked by week (share of games picked right; games in brackets)
Favorites’ record by week (share of games the betting favorite won; games in brackets)
Six weeks in, we are 52-41 picking winners (56%). Taking the favorite every time would be 58-35 (62%). Week 4 is the only week we have finished ahead of the favorites, and the gap has grown from two games to six in the last two weeks.
Picking against the market remains the clearest problem. Those picks are 4-14 over the season, each made at 53–62% confidence, when about eight wins would have been expected. That is 14 games, still a small sample, but it is now close to the point where we can no longer call it chance.
| How sure we were | Games | Won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 37 | 16 | 43% |
| 60–69% | 24 | 14 | 58% |
| 70–79% | 30 | 20 | 67% |
| 80–89% | 2 | 2 | — |
Our least confident picks are winning less often than a coin flip, 16 of 37 over six weeks. The 70–79% band has won 20 of 30 after a 2-3 week, a little below its stated rate but within normal variation for this many games. The order is right — more confident picks win more often — even if the bottom band is not.
On scoring, our forecasts ran 2.0 points high this week after five weeks of running low. Over 93 games they are 2.5 points low on average; over the 29 games since we nudged them up, 1.4 low, which is within normal variation.
Not betting advice. The forecasts graded here are a model’s estimates and will be wrong in both directions; they are published so they can be scored, and this page is the scoring.