The Old Team

NFL 2026  ·  Week 7  ·  Thursday Oct 22 – Wednesday Oct 28

Fourteen games kick off between tonight and Monday night, one of them in Paris, and every one has its own report. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are on bye.

This is the week of the old team. Ken Walker III, last season’s Super Bowl MVP, goes back to Seattle as the league’s leading rusher for Kansas City. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta calling the defence for the unbeaten 49ers. Trey Hendrickson gets his first shot at Joe Burrow. Mike McCarthy coaches against his former coordinator in France; Jason Sanders kicks against the team that cut him. And three teams — Atlanta, the Giants and Philadelphia — will start a quarterback who was not under center in Week 1, with Baltimore and Tampa Bay possibly joining them.

The signature, again: the Margin Meter. Every game carries one bar that shows the forecast margin against the market’s line. The coloured bar is how far, and toward whom, this report expects the game to go; the black tick is where the betting line sits. When they sit together, the forecast agrees with the market. When they split, the gap is the disagreement, and the report says why. This week they split hardest in Atlanta and in Seattle, where the forecast takes Kansas City outright.

The three must-watch games

Two more worth your time: 49ers at Falcons, Morris against the team that fired him with the 6-0 49ers missing most of their receivers, and Bengals at Ravens, where Lamar Jackson’s ankle has moved the line five points and flipped the favourite.

Contents — 14 games

Schedule difficulty table  ·  Run notes

Schedule difficulty — schedule already played

Each team is rated on the strength of the opponents it has already faced, not the ones still to come. The primary input is opponents’ SRS (average scoring margin adjusted for schedule, computed from all 93 results so far because Pro Football Reference was not used); opponents’ points for and against per game show the scoring profile behind it, “Opp L3” is the opponents’ combined record in their last three games (recent form), and the combined season record is kept as a check. Teams are split into even thirds by rank: the toughest 11 are hard, the next 10 medium, the last 11 easy.

Tiers are relative, not absolute: a “hard” schedule in a flat year is easier than a “hard” schedule in a top-heavy one. With six games played (five for teams that have had a bye) the ratings are firmer than a month ago, but one blowout still moves a team several places. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are on bye this week and appear for completeness.

Where the components disagree. The two unbeaten teams playing this week have done it against soft schedules: San Francisco’s opponents are 12-22-1 (30th) and Kansas City’s 9-20 (31st). The Giants lead the NFC East at 3-2-1 against the easiest slate in the league (opponents 10-25-1), which is why their SRS is −7.0 and why they are ten-point underdogs. At the other end, Miami’s 0-5 has come against opponents who are 22-5 — the hardest schedule by a distance. Cleveland is 4-2 having been outscored 122-106, the clearest case of a record outrunning its scoring; Las Vegas is 3-3 at exactly even.

How to read the numbers

Each forecast is a predicted score built from efficiency (EPA per play and success rate, both directions, with the last three weeks weighted as heavily as the full season), scoring pace, personnel, venue, weather and rest, with the betting line weighed as an input. The win probability and the cover chance are both read off the predicted margin, assuming final margins scatter around a forecast with a standard deviation of about 13.5 points; nothing is stated above 90%. Odds are from ScoresAndOdds, taken in one pass at 4:17 AM PT Thursday.

1 · The Setup

The No. 1 pick against the No. 3 pick, two years on — and both of them are playing the best football of their careers.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Both teams are 4-2 and both are chasing something. New England has won three straight and leads the AFC East on a tiebreaker over Buffalo; Chicago is 0-2 inside the NFC North and sits third behind unbeaten Minnesota, which makes every non-division win carry a little more weight. A Bears win is their first 5-2 start since 2020.

It is a short week for both, and both arrive healthy at quarterback. That is not something either team could say a month ago.

3 · The Storylines

Maye against Williams, round two. Their only meeting as starters was ugly for Chicago: a 19-3 New England win at Soldier Field in November 2024 in which Williams was sacked nine times. Since then Maye finished second in the MVP vote and took the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Over the last three weeks he has an NFL-best 10 touchdown passes and 0.38 EPA per dropback, and one more three-touchdown night makes him the first Patriot since Tom Brady in 2014 with four in a row. Williams leads the league at 72.5% completions, up from 58.1% last season.

A.J. Brown needs a better night. His first game back from a high ankle sprain produced three catches on ten targets and three drops. With Romeo Doubs, New England’s leading receiver, now on injured reserve, Brown is the No. 1 again, and he will see Jaylon Johnson. He had 10 catches, 132 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago last season while with Philadelphia.

The guard problem. Both of New England’s starting guards are out — Alijah Vera-Tucker with a hamstring, Ben Brown with a knee — and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable. Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor are expected to start inside. Chicago is second in the league in sack rate.

Old faces. Kevin Byard, a former Bears captain who led the NFL with seven interceptions last season, plays his first game in Chicago as a Patriot. On the other line, Joe Thuney starts at guard for the Bears against the team that drafted him.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The injuries that matter are New England’s on the interior line and in the secondary. Without Vera-Tucker and Brown, the Patriots are protecting Maye with two backups against a front that already lost Montez Sweat to suspension and still ranks second in sack rate. Carlton Davis misses his third straight game, so Charles Woods starts opposite Christian Gonzalez. Chicago is missing its rookie back Kyle Monangai again and probably T.J. Edwards at linebacker — useful context against a Patriots offense that has started to run the ball well.

New England Patriots

Chicago Bears

Final game designations from the official report (Thursday game), via patriots.com and the Boston Globe. Rouse and Pryor at guard and Woods at corner per the Globe.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

New England’s offense has turned over in the last three weeks, from below average to among the league’s best over that stretch (+0.20 EPA per play). Chicago’s offensive numbers over the same span are dragged down by two Tyson Bagent starts and a 31-7 loss at Green Bay; with Williams back the offense went 30 of 36 through the air and still leads the league in rushing at 160.7 yards a game.

The Bears have the shape of a team that controls the clock — 36 minutes of possession a game, the fewest defensive snaps faced by any team since at least 2000 — but when opponents do get the ball they gain six yards a play, second-most in the league. That is the soft spot Maye can find.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Chicago’s last six read like two seasons: a 59-37 shootout at Carolina, three low-scoring games without Williams, and the 31-23 win at Atlanta with him back. New England’s only bad result came in Week 3 at Jacksonville; since then, three straight wins and 26 or more points in each.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The Patriots’ two backup guards against Chicago’s four-man rush. Maye has been at his best with time — and the Bears are the kind of defense that gets home without blitzing. Watch the first third-and-long. If Rouse and Pryor hold and Maye can step up, the Bears’ soft yards-per-play numbers come out. If Kyler Gordon, three sacks off the slot last week, and the front get to him, it becomes the 2024 game in reverse.

Bears 27, Patriots 24

This is close to a coin flip with a home field attached. Chicago’s run game against a New England defense that has not allowed a 20-yard run is the more reliable plan, and the Patriots’ patched-up interior is the bigger liability. The Bears keep Maye on the sideline long enough to win it late.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits exactly on the number: Bears by a field goal, against the public money on New England.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The NFL’s first regular-season game in France, and it is Mike McCarthy against the coordinator he used to employ.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Pittsburgh is 4-2 and has won two straight for the first time this season, in the middle of an AFC North where four teams sit within half a game of each other. McCarthy has said the goal of the trip is to “come back 5-2.” New Orleans is 2-4, last-but-one in the NFC South and 1.5 games behind Carolina, but it just won at the Giants and has its bye after this game.

Owner Gayle Benson has said publicly she will not accept the way the season has gone. For Kellen Moore, 8-15 as a head coach, a second straight win in front of a global audience would buy a quiet bye week.

3 · The Storylines

Rodgers and McCarthy, together again. Thirteen seasons in Green Bay, a reunion in Pittsburgh, and an “animated exchange” on the sideline at Tampa last week. It is working: Rodgers had one touchdown pass in the first two games and 11 in the four since. His average throw has travelled under four yards in the last two games — this offense is short and quick by design.

Moore against his old boss. Moore was McCarthy’s offensive coordinator in Dallas from 2020 to 2022. Now he is the head coach on the hot seat, with Brandon Staley running a defense that has allowed 29.7 points a game, 31st in the league.

Shough’s hand. Broken bones in the left hand have not stopped him: three touchdowns and no interceptions at MetLife made him the first Saints quarterback since Drew Brees in 2020 to do that on the road. His 12 touchdowns and five interceptions are the same as Rodgers’.

A rookie in a featured role. With Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on injured reserve, second-round pick Germie Bernard caught 11 passes and the overtime winner at Tampa. DK Metcalf drew 15 targets in that game.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Pittsburgh absence that matters is at corner: Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Brandin Echols (hamstring) did not practise Wednesday, and Ramsey was the man who sacked Jalon Daniels twice, including the game-ender, last week. A Steelers secondary without both is a softer target for Shough than the one Tampa saw. For New Orleans, the worry is kicker Daniel Carlson, who stayed in the United States for the birth of a child; Moore expects him in Paris, with practice-squad kicker Charlie Smith as the fallback. In wind, that matters.

Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints

Wednesday participation reports (steelers.com, neworleanssaints.com); game designations come Friday. T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward were rest days. Beat coverage on Ramsey’s outlook was not reached.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Pittsburgh’s defense is fifth in EPA per play allowed and New Orleans’ is 25th, which is most of the gap. The Saints’ offense has slid to −0.13 EPA per play over the last three weeks even with last Sunday’s 34 points, which were helped by four Giants turnovers. Pittsburgh’s offense has been better lately (+0.01 over Weeks 4–6) without ever being dynamic; 66% of its plays are passes, second-most in the league.

The schedules differ. Pittsburgh’s 4-2 has come against the 11th-hardest slate, New Orleans’ 2-4 against a medium one.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Pittsburgh has won its last two by a combined 19 after losing two of the previous three. Four of New Orleans’ six games have been decided by eight points or fewer; the two blowouts (Atlanta, Minnesota) came at home.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The wind against both kickers and both deep games. If the forecast that has sustained wind in the high teens is right, this becomes a short-passing game — which suits Rodgers, whose offense already lives within five yards of the line, more than it suits a Saints attack that needs explosive plays. And it makes Chris Boswell, four field goals last week, the most valuable player on the field if Carlson is late or rusty.

Steelers 23, Saints 17

The Steelers are the better defense by a distance, the Saints’ pressure rate (29th) will not trouble a quick release, and conditions push this toward a grinding, field-goal game Pittsburgh is built to win. Steelers by six.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Pittsburgh and goes 2.5 points past the line; the wind is the reason the total sits well under.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Raheem Morris comes back to the building that fired him, calling the defense for the NFL’s last unbeaten team.

2 · Why This Game Matters

San Francisco is 6-0 for the fourth time in franchise history and is the NFC’s last unbeaten team, two and a half games clear of Seattle in the West. Atlanta is 2-4, has lost two straight, and is 0-3 at home for the first time since 2020. A loss here is 2-5 and the season starts to slip toward the deadline.

There is a caveat on the 49ers’ record: their opponents have the third-weakest combined rating in the league. They have beaten what has been in front of them, and Atlanta is more of the same on paper.

3 · The Storylines

Morris returns. Fired by Arthur Blank in January after two seasons, Morris is now Kyle Shanahan’s defensive coordinator, and his unit is fifth in total defense while blitzing less than most. Bijan Robinson: “This is his old team… He’s going to bring juice to those guys.” He also knows exactly how the Falcons’ quarterback reacts to pressure.

Kevin Stefanski’s first year is wobbling. The Falcons won 35-14 at Green Bay in Week 3 and have not looked like that team since. Robinson had a season-low nine carries in the loss to Chicago, and Stefanski has said he wants faster starts and more of him.

Purdy without his receivers. Mike Evans aggravated his Achilles on Monday night, Deebo Samuel’s hamstring has kept him out since Week 5, and Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling are all hurt. Purdy is still the second favourite for MVP. Christian McCaffrey scored twice against Washington and is the obvious answer if the receivers are thin.

Brian Robinson Jr. against his old team — the Falcons’ back left San Francisco in free agency, and is limited this week with a hamstring.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The 49ers list ten players who did not practise Wednesday, but two matter most. Nick Bosa (knee, calf) has not played since Week 2 and said two weeks ago he would “definitely” be back for this one; Shanahan was hoping on Wednesday. Without Bosa, Morris has had to manufacture pressure — and Penix’s splits under pressure are the worst thing about Atlanta’s offense. The receiver list, above, is the other. Atlanta’s concerns are in the secondary: three cornerbacks limited, including A.J. Terrell, whose practice window from injured reserve just opened.

San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta Falcons

Wednesday participation reports (49ers via CBS and 49ers Webzone; atlantafalcons.com); game designations come Friday. Bosa and Evans detail from NBC Sports Bay Area.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

This is the best offense in the league by EPA per play (+0.21) against a defense that has come apart over the last three weeks: Atlanta allowed 1.59 points per drive over its first three games and 2.43 since. San Francisco converts 51.5% of third downs, best in the league, and Purdy averages a league-high 10.0 yards per attempt against the blitz — which is how most teams try to slow him.

Atlanta’s offense ranks 21st by EPA and spends 30% of its snaps trailing by double digits. The Falcons need a lead to be the team that won in Green Bay.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Every 49ers win but one has been by six points or more; the exception was a 32-29 shootout in Seattle. Atlanta’s two wins came in back-to-back weeks in September; it has been outscored 61-46 in the two games since and has not won at home.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Penix against the four-man rush. Morris does not blitz much and does not need to; the 49ers get pressure anyway. Penix is 78% from a clean pocket and 31% under pressure. If Atlanta’s line gives him time to throw, the Falcons stay in it. If not, San Francisco’s offense — even short-handed — will get enough possessions to put it away.

49ers 27, Falcons 20

San Francisco is the better team at every level that matters, and the market has moved a point and a half toward Atlanta on the 49ers’ injury list. That move is too much. McCaffrey and a third-down offense this efficient travel without wide receivers. Niners by a touchdown.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on San Francisco and goes four points past the line, which has moved toward Atlanta all week.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The line has moved five points and changed favourites on one ankle — and Trey Hendrickson gets his first shot at Joe Burrow.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The AFC North is a four-way scrum: Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4-2, Cincinnati at 3-2 after its bye. Burrow put it plainly: “We don’t want to be 0-2 in the division.” A Bengals win pulls them level and makes the tiebreakers theirs to lose; a Ravens loss is 1-2 inside the division with their quarterback’s availability still a day-to-day story.

Baltimore is in its first season under Jesse Minter after John Harbaugh’s 18 years ended in January. The Ravens have already won one game they used to lose — in overtime at Atlanta — and lost one they used to win, 13-10 at Cleveland.

3 · The Storylines

Lamar’s ankle decides the game. Baltimore scored 116 points and 14 offensive touchdowns in the 14 quarters Jackson played; 40 points and four touchdowns in the ten quarters without him. Since 2018 the Ravens are 11-2 against Cincinnati with him and 0-3 without him, losing by 12 on average. Minter: “It’s a day-by-day thing.”

Hendrickson against his old team. Sixty-one sacks and four Pro Bowls in Cincinnati, a contract dispute, and now a Raven. He has never sacked Burrow — they were teammates — and had eight pressures in his return last week. Calais Campbell: “I would like him to be able to have a day where they miss him.”

Derrick Henry and a soft run defense. Henry leads the league with 130 carries and needs 111 yards to pass Jerome Bettis for eighth all time. Cincinnati has allowed 155 rushing yards a game over its last three. Cleveland held him to 58 last week, his season low.

Evan McPherson is perfect. Ten for ten this year and a club-record 22 straight field goals.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Everything here runs through Jackson. If he plays and moves, Baltimore has the better offense. If Huntley starts, the Ravens have a game manager averaging 6.0 yards an attempt — 35th of 43 quarterbacks — and an offense that has to live on Henry. Cincinnati, by contrast, is close to whole: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are off the report, and only safety Kyle Dugger (quad, limited) and tight end Tanner Hudson (IR) are missing. Baltimore gets center Cam Jurgens back from a concussion, which moves Vega Ioane to right guard.

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens

Wednesday participation reports (baltimoreravens.com, bengals.com); game designations come Friday. Early Wednesday reports that Jackson did not practise were superseded by the official report, which lists him limited. Detail from ESPN’s Jamison Hensley and the Baltimore Banner.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

On the season Baltimore’s offense rates higher (+0.11 EPA per play, 7th), but most of that came with Jackson. Over Weeks 4–6, mostly Huntley, it was +0.04, and the Ravens’ defense was the stronger unit at −0.09. Cincinnati’s offense has been steady at +0.07 to +0.09 all season; its defense has slipped to +0.07 over the last three games, which is the run defense.

Cincinnati has played a medium schedule and Baltimore an easy one — 29th of 32.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Baltimore’s four wins were all with Jackson starting or finishing, except the overtime win at Atlanta. Cincinnati is 3-2 with both losses by five points or fewer, one of them at Pittsburgh by three.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Henry against Cincinnati’s run defense. If Huntley starts, Baltimore’s plan is obvious — dime-heavy defense, Henry 25 times, keep it close and let Tyler Loop win it. Cincinnati has allowed 155 a game on the ground for three weeks. If the Bengals can hold Henry under four yards a carry on first down, Huntley has to throw on second-and-long, and that is where Hendrickson’s old teammates beat him.

Bengals 24, Ravens 21

Assuming Huntley, the Bengals have the healthier roster, the better quarterback and the extra week of rest. Baltimore’s defense and home crowd keep it close; Burrow and McPherson finish it.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees with the market’s flip to Cincinnati and goes a point and a half past it. If Jackson starts, the call flips with it (Run notes).

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Carolina is in first place with a quarterback leading the league in passing yards. Tampa Bay is in last, with a coach on the hot seat and a quarterback decision due Friday.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Carolina is 3-2 and leads the NFC South by a game and a half; a win puts it 2.5 clear before a Thursday trip to Green Bay. Tampa Bay is 1-5, last, and playing its first division game. The national columns have Bowles at the top of the list of coaches likely to be fired next; Bowles says the season is “not lost.” At 1-6 that becomes a harder argument.

The series is as even as it gets: 26-25 Carolina, and four of the last six meetings were decided by three points or fewer.

3 · The Storylines

Mayfield or Daniels. Mayfield was 0-3 before the injury with 13 sacks and three lost fumbles. Daniels went 1-2 in relief and ended last week’s overtime loss to Pittsburgh sacked on fourth down. ESPN reported the game plan was built around Daniels earlier in the week; the latest reporting says Mayfield likely starts. Carolina is preparing for both.

Bryce Young’s breakout. Dave Canales has turned the 2023 No. 1 pick into the league’s leading passer by yards per game, with 15 big plays, third-most. Second-year receiver Tetairoa McMillan has 32 catches for 471 yards.

Bowles on the edge. Mike Evans left in free agency, Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving both missed Wednesday, and the defense — fifth in yards allowed, second against the run — is carrying a team that ranks 29th in offensive EPA.

Josiah Trotter, the rookie linebacker and son of Jeremiah, leads Tampa Bay with 52 tackles.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Tampa Bay may be without its two best skill players: Egbuka (concussion and foot), the team’s leading receiver, and Irving (illness), who has averaged 136 scrimmage yards in four career games against Carolina. Right tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) also did not practise. Carolina’s main loss is edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, whom Canales has as unlikely; with Thomas Incoom also hurt, the Panthers’ pass rush is thin against whichever quarterback Tampa starts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers

Wednesday participation reports (buccaneers.com joint report, panthers.com); game designations come Friday. Hubbard, Lloyd, Moton and Waller were rest days for Carolina.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Carolina’s offense has been one of the three best in the league over the last three weeks by EPA per play (+0.20), behind Young and a run game that put up 120 yards from Chuba Hubbard at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay’s defense (−0.09, 4th) is the one unit on the field that can slow it. Carolina’s defense is average by EPA but last in yards per carry allowed (5.12) — exactly the weakness Irving would exploit, if he plays.

Tampa Bay’s offense is 29th with Mayfield and Daniels combined. Its 1-5 record has come against a hard schedule, fourth-toughest in the league.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Tampa Bay’s five losses have come by six, four, seven, three and seven — this is not a bad team, it is a team that loses close games. Carolina’s only blowout loss was the opener; it has won two straight.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Tampa’s run defense against Hubbard. The Buccaneers allow 75.5 rushing yards a game, second-fewest. Carolina ran 28 times for Hubbard last week to keep Philadelphia off balance. If Tampa forces Young into obvious passing downs, its pass rush — David Walker leads the league in sack rate — gets a chance at a quarterback sacked 12 times. If Hubbard gets four yards a carry, Young picks the defense apart.

Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20

Carolina is the better team right now and is at home; Tampa’s defense and a likely Mayfield return keep it within a score. Panthers by four, and another one-score loss for Bowles.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees with the market on Carolina and lands a point past the number.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

A first-place team as a ten-point underdog, and a line that has moved five points since May without anyone really arguing with it.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Giants lead the NFC East at 3-2-1 — and are double-digit underdogs, because their record has come against the weakest schedule in the league (opponents’ combined SRS −6.3) and their own SRS is −7.0. Houston started 0-4 and has won two straight, the second with a 49-yard field goal at the gun at Wembley. Both teams are on bye next week, so this is the last result either one carries into November.

The Giants have won all five meetings since Houston’s only win in the series in 2002.

3 · The Storylines

McCarthy gets his shot. 27-1 at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh, 6-4 as a Vikings starter last year, traded for a fifth-round pick, and now starting for John Harbaugh. His relief quarter last week produced 243 passing yards. DeMeco Ryans, who also calls Houston’s defence: “I see why they named him the starting quarterback.”

Malik Nabers is on a historic pace. 12 catches for 165 yards against the Saints, his third straight 100-yard game, and 168 receptions through 25 career games — second in history behind Odell Beckham Jr.

Will Anderson Jr. against a broken line. He leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 15 quarterback hits. The Giants did not practise either starting tackle Wednesday — Andrew Thomas (groin) and Jermaine Eluemunor (calf).

Tank Dell comes back. His first game since Dec 21, 2024, after a devastating knee injury. Ryans: “thankful, grateful.”

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Giants’ injury report is the story. Both starting tackles, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, safety Jevón Holland (concussion) and corner Greg Newsome II (concussion) all sat Wednesday; a first-start quarterback behind backup tackles against the league’s sack leader is the matchup the line is pricing. Houston has its own list — linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, both safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, tackles Trent Brown and Blake Fisher, and back David Montgomery all missed Wednesday — but most of it is on defence, against an offence starting a new quarterback.

New York Giants

Houston Texans

Wednesday participation reports (giants.com; Texans On SI); game designations come Friday. Woody Marks leads the backfield if Montgomery sits.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Houston’s offence has come alive over the last three weeks (+0.20 EPA per play, after a slow September), and the Giants’ run defence just allowed 175 yards to New Orleans and 202 to Washington before that. The Texans’ own run game is 29th in yards per carry, so most of that improvement is Stroud.

The Giants’ defence rates 21st by EPA; their offence 18th. Nothing in their profile says first place except the standings.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Houston’s four losses came by five, 14, two and four; it is a better team than 2-4. The Giants’ six results include a 28-6 loss at the Rams and a 27-27 tie in Washington; their three wins came against Dallas, Tennessee and Arizona.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Anderson against whichever tackles the Giants can field. Houston blitzed 39.5% of the time in London, a season high, and played man coverage on a third of snaps. That is a test for a quarterback making his first start in this offence — and an opportunity for Nabers if McCarthy can get the ball out against man. If he cannot, the Texans’ pass rush decides it by halftime.

Texans 27, Giants 17

Houston is the better team, at home, against a first-time starter behind backup tackles. Ten points is about right — the forecast lands half a point short of the market, mostly because Nabers can win any single matchup in man coverage.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Houston and stops half a point short of the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The league’s stingiest defence, rested off a bye, against a quarterback who leads the league in throws he should not have made.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Minnesota is 5-0 for the second time in three seasons and leads the NFC North. Indianapolis is 2-4, has lost two straight, and fired general manager Chris Ballard on Sunday night; co-owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon said “a change in leadership is necessary.” With trips to Jacksonville and Dallas next, a third straight loss turns the trade-deadline talk from possible to likely.

Minnesota is fresh off its bye. Indianapolis is coming off a 26-20 home loss to a Tennessee team that had been 0-5, after leading 13-0 at half.

3 · The Storylines

Jones against the team that once kept him on its practice squad. He spent the end of 2024 with the Vikings; Shane Steichen thinks the familiarity helps. The numbers say it will not help enough: ESPN has Jones 30th in QBR.

Kyler Murray’s audition. Minnesota picked him over J.J. McCarthy — now starting for the Giants — and is unbeaten with him. His numbers are modest (662 yards, two touchdowns in four starts) because the Vikings have not needed more. Some have called them the most fraudulent unbeaten team in football. The scoreboard does not care yet.

Brian Flores’ blitz. Minnesota blitzed on 71% of dropbacks in the first three weeks; the next-highest team was at 46%. The Vikings allow 12.8 points a game and a third-down conversion rate of 22%, both best in the league. Andrew Van Ginkel has a sack in 33 straight games, per the team. Dallas Turner has six sacks.

An organisation in flux. Ballard ran the Colts since 2017; they have not won the AFC South since 2014. Interim GM Ed Dodds’ first move was signing a 40-year-old punter, Thomas Morstead, to the practice squad.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Indianapolis is likely without its best cover corner: Sauce Gardner has a calf strain, week to week, and Justin Walley (knee) also sat Wednesday — against Justin Jefferson, whose ankle limited him but whom no one expects to miss. Tight end Tyler Warren (groin) missed last week and did not practise. Minnesota is close to full health on offence, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson back at full practice after concussions.

Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota Vikings

Wednesday participation reports (via vikings.com); game designations come Friday. Gardner and Warren detail from Colts beat coverage (107.5 The Fan, Colts Wire).

5 · How These Teams Match Up

This is the best defence in football by a wide margin: −0.21 EPA per play allowed, and −0.28 over the last three games. Indianapolis’ offence is 22nd, and its defence 26th; it allowed 1,029 yards over its last two games, second-most in any two-game span in league history.

Minnesota’s weakness is its own offence, 27th by EPA. The Vikings win by holding the ball — 39 and a half minutes of possession at New Orleans — and winning the turnover margin; they are 40-4 since 2022 when even or better in it.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Minnesota has not allowed more than 22 points and has held four of five opponents to 16 or fewer. Indianapolis’ two wins came by two and 17; three of its losses were by six or more.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Jones against the blitz on third down. The Vikings bring pressure from everywhere and Jones has thrown two red-zone interceptions in a single game this month. If Indianapolis can stay out of third-and-long by running Jonathan Taylor — seven touchdowns already — it can shorten the game. If it cannot, Flores gets his takeaways.

Vikings 24, Colts 16

Minnesota’s defence against a turnover-prone quarterback without his top corner on the other side is the biggest mismatch on the board this week. The Vikings will not score much, and will not need to.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Minnesota and goes a point and a half past the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The lowest total on the board — and the Jets’ kicker is the Dolphins’ old one.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Not much, honestly, beyond pride and draft position. Miami is 0-5 for the fifth time in franchise history and had not held a lead all season as of last week. The Jets are 2-4 and have not scored more than 20 in three straight. Both are in rebuilds.

The smaller reasons are good ones: two coaches under pressure who worked together on Cleveland’s defensive staff in 2014 and 2015, a kicker and a safety facing the team that let them go, and a Jets rookie class that is the most interesting thing about either roster.

3 · The Storylines

Jason Sanders against Miami. Third in Dolphins history in scoring over seven seasons and a 2020 All-Pro, released in March, now kicking for the Jets — four field goals last week. Miami cut his successor, Riley Patterson, on Tuesday and signed Zane Gonzalez to the practice squad; Justin Tucker had a workout.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jet. Miami drafted him 11th overall in 2018, traded him, got him back, and traded him again in March to the Jets for a seventh-round pick. He has a three-year, $40 million deal and a fumble recovery last week.

Willis under fire. Miami’s offence ranks last in success rate by one widely cited measure, its passing game averages 153.6 yards a game (second-lowest), and De’Von Achane is gone for the season with a torn ACL. Hafley has said no to a quarterback change.

The Jets’ rookies. Edge rusher David Bailey, the No. 2 pick, had three sacks in Week 5. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and receiver Omar Cooper Jr. — six catches, 103 yards and a 48-yard touchdown at New England — have given Smith targets he did not have in September.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Breece Hall (quad) has missed three games and did not practise Wednesday; Aaron Glenn has not ruled him out and dropped the “week to week” label. Without him, Braelon Allen carries the load against a Miami defence that is 29th by EPA. Miami’s missing piece is the one it lost for the year: Achane. Ollie Gordon II leads the backfield, and the Dolphins did run for 217 yards against Cincinnati before their bye.

Miami Dolphins

New York Jets

Wednesday participation reports (newyorkjets.com); game designations come Friday. Demario Davis and Harrison Phillips were rest days. Hall detail from CBS/RotoWire and Jets Wire.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Miami’s numbers are bad, but they come with an asterisk: the Dolphins have played the hardest schedule in the league — San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cincinnati among their five — and their opponents are a combined 22-5. Their SRS is −7.0. The Jets’ defence is legitimately good (−0.05 EPA, 8th; no opening-drive points allowed in five straight games), and their offence legitimately is not: worst in the league in EPA in opponent territory, last in red-zone touchdown rate.

This is a game where field goals will pile up. The Jets have kicked their way through the last three weeks.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Miami has lost every game, but only one of its last three by more than seven. Three of the Jets’ four losses were by a touchdown or less.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The Jets inside the 20. New York has been the worst red-zone offence in the league. Against a Miami defence that cannot stop anyone between the 20s, the Jets will get there — the question is whether it is touchdowns or Sanders. If Smith finds Sadiq and Cooper in the end zone twice, this is over. If it is four field goals, Miami stays alive.

Jets 23, Dolphins 16

The Jets’ defence against Miami’s passing game is a clear mismatch, and the Dolphins’ kicking situation is a mess. New York by a touchdown, with Sanders, fittingly, accounting for a chunk of it.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on the Jets and goes 2.5 points past the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The lowest total of the week, between two first-year coaches who both won ugly on Sunday.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Cleveland is 4-2 and holds the AFC North tiebreaker in a four-team pile at the top; two of its wins have come on last-second kicks against division rivals. Tennessee is 1-5, last in the AFC South, and third in the 2027 draft order — but it just won for the first time under Robert Saleh, snapping a seven-game losing streak that went back to last season.

Honestly, the football will not be pretty. The total is 37.5 for a reason: Tennessee is last in the league in yards and points, and Cleveland converts 30.8% of third downs, also last.

3 · The Storylines

Watson’s second act. The Ringer called starting him over Shedeur Sanders a “sunk cost fallacy” in August. Two months later he has started every game, and Cleveland is in first place. The defence does most of the work, but Watson has not lost the job.

Todd Monken beat his old team. Baltimore’s offensive coordinator for three seasons, Monken won his first meeting with the Ravens on Andre Szmyt’s 37-yarder at the gun — a kick he got only because Baltimore jumped offside on the first, blocked, attempt.

Cam Ward and patience. Saleh to Albert Breer: “He’s too talented… Give him a chance to grow.” Talk of Mitchell Trubisky has quieted after the win, but Ward has four touchdowns and four interceptions.

A hard week in Nashville. The Titans released defensive lineman Jordan Elliott on Tuesday after an incident at the facility involving a gun. Saleh called it “a call for help more than a criminal act.”

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Cleveland’s list is long but mostly defensive: safety Grant Delpit (concussion and shoulder) is in doubt, linebacker Carson Schwesinger (ankle) is expected to play through it again, and both Jenkinses on the offensive line sat Wednesday. Monken says there is “a pretty good chance” Mason Graham, the team sack leader, returns from an MCL sprain; Quinshon Judkins (ankle) and Dylan Sampson (knee) are both expected back at running back. Tennessee is healthy by comparison: Calvin Ridley (hip) was limited, and safety Kevin Winston Jr. had an MRI on his quad.

Cleveland Browns

Tennessee Titans

Wednesday participation reports (Dawgs By Nature, nfl.com, tennesseetitans.com); game designations come Friday. Sources disagree on whether Graham appears on the Browns’ report. Local detail from Dawg Pound Daily, 104.5 The Zone and the Tennessean.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Tennessee’s offence is 31st in EPA per play (−0.15) and has been worse lately (−0.23 over Weeks 4–6). Cleveland’s is 26th. The difference is on defence: Cleveland is 13th and has 19 sacks, second in the league; Tennessee is 23rd, though it just had six sacks of Daniel Jones.

The schedules point in opposite directions. Cleveland’s 4-2 has come against the second-hardest slate in the league; Tennessee’s 1-5 against one of the easiest. That is a big part of why the Titans’ SRS (−10.2) is the worst in football.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Five of Cleveland’s six games were decided by five points or fewer, and it won four of them. Tennessee had scored 10, 20, 7, 18 and 3 before Sunday’s 26.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Cleveland’s pass rush against Ward’s pocket. The Browns have a sack in every game and Maliek Collins has one in three straight. Ward holds the ball and has thrown an interception in four straight. The Titans have to run to protect him, and the Browns’ run defence has been solid. A Titans touchdown drive of more than 60 yards would be a surprise.

Browns 20, Titans 16

Cleveland’s defence is the best unit on the field and Tennessee’s offence is the worst. One more close one for the Browns, which is how they win.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Cleveland and goes 2.5 points past the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Larry Fitzgerald’s jersey goes up at halftime, and Arizona tries to end a franchise-record nine-game home losing streak.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Denver is 4-2, a game and a half behind unbeaten Kansas City, which visits on Nov 1. The Broncos have won two straight and four of five. Arizona is 2-4 under first-year coach Mike LaFleur and has lost nine straight at home — its last home win was Sept 14, 2025.

There is ceremony: Fitzgerald’s jersey retirement and Ring of Honor induction at halftime. A home win on that day would mean something to a building that has not seen one in 13 months.

3 · The Storylines

Payton has the call sheet and Nix still cannot find the yards. Denver gained 168 yards in last week’s win, the fewest in a Broncos victory since John Elway’s first start in 1983. Ryan Fitzpatrick said on Prime Video that Nix was “not playing competitively.” Arizona allows 8.6 yards an attempt, worst in the league. If Nix is going to find it, this is the week.

LaFleur beat his old boss. The former Rams assistant won at SoFi on Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal. Ryland is NFC Special Teams Player of the Week and on pace to break Neil Rackers’ franchise scoring record.

Life after Kyler. Murray is 5-0 in Minnesota on a one-year deal; Arizona still owes him about $36 million.

Jaylen Waddle’s first Denver season has produced 228 yards through six games, and he was limited Wednesday with a chest injury.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Arizona’s list is the one that matters. Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love has not practised fully in three weeks and is likely out; safety Budda Baker (groin, illness), defensive lineman Walter Nolen III and corner Garrett Williams also sat Wednesday, with an illness moving through the building. Denver’s news is good: Pat Surtain II practised for the first time since his Week 4 ankle injury, limited. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is still out.

Denver Broncos

Arizona Cardinals

Wednesday participation reports (denverbroncos.com, azcardinals.com, nfl.com); game designations come Friday. Josh Sweat and Isaac Seumalo were rest days. Love detail from Arizona Sports.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Denver’s defence is legitimately good and getting better — −0.12 EPA per play allowed over the last three weeks, against the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. Arizona’s defence is 28th and has allowed 29.7 points a game; holding the Rams to 286 yards last week was the exception. Neither offence is good: Denver averages 4.4 yards a play, 31st, and the teams are tied for the fewest plays of 20-plus yards in the league.

Arizona’s SRS (−9.9) is the second-worst in football, and its schedule has been easy.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Arizona has been outscored 148-82 in four games against Seattle, San Francisco, the Giants and Detroit before Sunday’s 18-16 win. Denver’s two losses came to Kansas City and San Francisco, the two unbeaten teams.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Nix against the worst pass defence in football. Payton has taken the offence back because the passing game stalled; Arizona is the opponent on which to restart it. If Nix completes two throws of 20-plus yards in the first half, Denver wins comfortably. If he cannot, this is another 17-14 game and the Cardinals have Ryland.

Broncos 24, Cardinals 17

Denver’s defence against an Arizona offence likely without Love is the deciding matchup, and the Cardinals’ pass defence is generous enough that even this Broncos offence will find a couple of touchdowns. Broncos by seven.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Denver and goes 2.5 points past a line that has fallen three points since May.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The highest total of the week, the first division game of Detroit’s season, and Josh Jacobs might be back.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Green Bay is 4-2 and has won three straight. Detroit is 3-2, last in the NFC North — a division in which nobody is below .500 — and has its first division game of the year after a bye. Minnesota is 5-0 ahead of both; the loser here falls two games behind with a head-to-head loss already on the board.

Green Bay has won the last two meetings, including 31-24 on Thanksgiving last year when Love threw four touchdowns.

3 · The Storylines

Love’s back and Green Bay’s missing pieces. Love is limited, Micah Parsons is not practising as he rehabs last season’s torn ACL, and Josh Jacobs was reinstated from the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Monday — a league review of a May arrest is ongoing — with his status for Sunday undetermined. Green Bay’s run game averages 2.9 yards a carry, last in the league. Jacobs, even rusty, changes that.

Goff’s clean start. Twelve touchdowns, no interceptions, and Penei Sewell moved to left tackle and grading above 90 by PFF in two of his last three games. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league with nine scrimmage touchdowns.

Sam LaPorta wants paying. In the last year of his rookie deal after missing the end of 2025 with back surgery, LaPorta says the Lions are “just not showing the love” and called talks a “stalemate.”

Brian Branch returns from his Achilles, probably on a snap count, to a Detroit secondary that is 32nd in pass defence.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Detroit’s defence gets better this week if Branch plays, and it needs to: 297 passing yards allowed a game, last in the league. Green Bay’s problems are on the injury report: Love (back), guard Aaron Banks, three receivers limited, and Parsons out. The Packers will try to play this game with a quarterback who is a little stiff and a pass rush without its best player.

Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions

Wednesday reports were estimates: Green Bay held a walk-through and Detroit did not practise (packers.com, detroitlions.com). Game designations come Friday. Love detail from Packer Central; Branch from CBS Sports.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Two teams built in opposite ways. Detroit has the third-best offence by EPA per play (+0.18, and +0.25 over the last three weeks) and the second-worst defence (+0.15). Green Bay’s offence is average but trending up (+0.10 over Weeks 4–6); its defence has been excellent lately (−0.17 over the same span), with three interceptions against Dallas.

Detroit leads the league with 20 sacks. Green Bay is the most-penalised team in football, 57 flags for 465 yards. Both schedules have been middling to hard.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Detroit has scored 26 or more in every game, and allowed 21 or more in every game. Green Bay’s last three wins came by three, 24 and ten.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Detroit’s pass rush against Love’s back. The Lions lead the league in sacks and Love was stiff enough to be limited in a walk-through. If he can drop back and throw deep — Green Bay has the second-most 20-yard completions in the league — he will find a secondary that gives them up. If the Lions’ rush makes him uncomfortable early, the Packers have no run game to fall back on unless Jacobs plays.

Lions 27, Packers 24

Detroit is rested, at home, and has the best quarterback on the field playing the cleanest football of his career. Green Bay’s defence has been the better unit lately and keeps it close. Lions by a field goal.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast sits on the number for Detroit and under a total that has climbed three points.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

A preseason Super Bowl favourite at 2-4, on its third kicker, against a Raiders team that has lost three straight after starting 3-0.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Rams were a preseason Super Bowl favourite and are 2-4, last in the NFC West on tiebreakers; three of their four losses came by a combined nine points, the last on a walk-off field goal by Arizona. The Raiders are 3-3 under first-year coach Klint Kubiak and have already matched last year’s win total — then lost to Kansas City, New England and Buffalo. Kubiak: “That’s unacceptable, and that starts with me.”

One of these teams gets back to .500 or within a game of it. The other is staring at a lost October.

3 · The Storylines

Stafford without Adams. Davante Adams ruptured a hamstring and is on injured reserve for six to ten weeks; Puka Nacua is the No. 1 again. Stafford has been excellent; the Rams have still lost.

Cousins’ renaissance. Signed for one year, named the starter by Kubiak before Week 1, and among the league leaders in touchdown passes. Calls for Mendoza will grow if the Raiders lose a fourth straight.

The kicker carousel. Harrison Mevis was cut after five games and Blake Grupe tore his ACL making a kickoff tackle last week. Brandon McManus, 35, won a tryout over Matt Prater and is the Rams’ third kicker of the season. On the other side, Matt Gay — a Ram from 2020 to 2022 — kicked three field goals against Buffalo.

Kubiak against McVay — twice a year as Seattle’s offensive coordinator, now as a head coach.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Rams are badly hurt up front on defence. Poona Ford (triceps) is out for the season, Kobie Turner is out at least four weeks, Myles Garrett is still on injured reserve after knee surgery, and linebacker Nate Landman is in the concussion protocol. That is most of a defensive line. Corner Trent McDuffie (groin) is day to day. The good news is left tackle Alaric Jackson, back from a one-game suspension for punching Buffalo’s Bradley Chubb. Las Vegas’ key question is Brock Bowers (hamstring, calf), limited Wednesday.

Los Angeles Rams

Las Vegas Raiders

Wednesday participation report (raiders.com); game designations come Friday. Rams detail from therams.com and Rams On SI. Las Vegas Review-Journal coverage on Bowers was not reachable.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

On paper the Rams are the better team on both sides — 10th on offence and 10th on defence by EPA per play — but the defence that produced those numbers had Ford and Turner. Las Vegas’ defence has collapsed over the last three weeks (+0.25 EPA per play allowed, worst in the league over that stretch), which is a good matchup for Stafford even without Adams.

The Raiders’ red-zone offence went 12 for 23 on the season but 4 for 10 during the losing streak. The Rams’ pass rush pressures at a high rate (about 41%) and converts almost none of it to sacks (eight).

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Since a 7-27 opener, the Rams’ games have been decided by 22, four, four, three and two. The Raiders’ three losses came by three, 28 and three.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Stafford against a Raiders secondary in freefall. Las Vegas has allowed 45 to New England and 33 to Buffalo. Without Adams, Stafford will look for Nacua early and often; with a depleted defensive line of his own, McVay needs his offence to win the possession battle. If the Rams score on their first two drives, the Raiders’ red-zone problems decide it.

Rams 27, Raiders 23

The Rams’ injuries are real and the line has dropped three points on them, but the Raiders’ defence is in worse shape than any of it. Stafford wins a shootout by four.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on the Rams and stops half a point short of the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

The Super Bowl MVP comes back to Seattle wearing red — and he has more rushing yards than the team that let him go.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Kansas City is the AFC’s only unbeaten team at 5-0 and can start 6-0 for the second time in three seasons. Seattle, the defending champion, is 3-3, has lost three of four, and already has as many losses as it had all of last season. It is 2.5 games behind San Francisco in the West.

For Seattle this is the point at which a title defence turns into a wild-card scramble or steadies. For Kansas City, it is a measuring stick on the road against the second-best defence in football.

3 · The Storylines

Ken Walker III against his old team. The Super Bowl LX MVP is the first reigning Super Bowl MVP to face his former team the next season. Seattle made no offer before free agency; Kansas City gave him three years and $43 million. He leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards at 6.3 a carry, is on pace for 2,261, and has 22 more rushing yards than Seattle’s entire team. GM John Schneider in the spring: “That’s a position that you can find guys.”

Darnold under fire. Two interceptions at San Francisco, two more at Denver including one that set up the overtime winner. Jay Glazer: “I think he’s pressing a lot right now.” Darnold: “It’s B.S. for me to keep turning the ball over.” He won a Super Bowl eight months ago.

Mahomes’ comeback season. His 106.2 rating before Week 6 was his best since 2020, with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The knee looks fine.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, leads the NFL in catches, yards and receiving touchdowns, and had 12 catches at Denver.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Kansas City’s weakness this week is pass protection: left tackle Josh Simmons (back) and right tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion) both did not practise Wednesday, and Joshua Ezeudu is expected to start at right tackle. Against a Seattle defence that ranks second by EPA, that is the matchup to watch. Travis Kelce (ankle) is limited but not expected to miss; Rashee Rice is still out. Seattle is missing linebackers again — Drake Thomas, Chazz Surratt and Connor O’Toole — against the league’s leading rusher. Zach Charbonnet practised fully and can come off PUP.

Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks

Wednesday participation reports (chiefs.com, seahawks.com); game designations come Friday. Smith-Njigba was removed from Seattle’s report. Ezeudu detail from Chiefs On SI.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Both defences are elite: Seattle second in EPA per play allowed, Kansas City third. The offences are not close. Kansas City is fifth (+0.16); Seattle 24th and, over the last three weeks, −0.19 per play — one of the four worst stretches in the league. Seattle is last in the league in rushing EPA.

A caveat on both records: Kansas City’s opponents have the second-weakest combined rating in the league, Seattle’s the sixth-weakest. Neither has been tested much.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

All three Seattle losses came by three or fewer, two of them to San Francisco and Denver. Kansas City has won by 21, three, 14, three and 16 — two close ones, three comfortable.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Kansas City’s backup tackles against Seattle’s pass rush. If Simmons and Moore both sit, Mahomes is protected by a patched line in the loudest building he will play in this year. Seattle does not need to score much if it can make Mahomes hurry; Kansas City’s answer is Walker, who can take the pressure off by himself against a linebacker corps missing three players.

Chiefs 23, Seahawks 20

Seattle’s defence keeps this close, but its offence has been too careless to trust against a defence this good, and Walker running at Seattle’s depleted linebackers is the most reliable weapon on the field. Kansas City by a field goal — an outright underdog call, against an 89% public lean that already agrees.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast disagrees with the market and takes Kansas City outright, 5.5 points from the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

↑ Back to contents

1 · The Setup

Two 2-4 teams, two coaches being asked about their jobs, and the first four-game losing streak of the Sirianni era.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The NFC East is wide open — the Giants lead at 3-2-1 with Dallas and Philadelphia a game and a half back — so the winner is, absurdly, still in the race. The loser is 2-5. Philadelphia has lost four straight for the first time since 2020; Nick Sirianni, who made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons, is 9-11 in his last 20 and the Inquirer’s Jeff McLane says he is “running out of time.” Dallas’ Stephen Jones says the team “absolutely” believes in Brian Schottenheimer.

They meet again on Thanksgiving in Dallas, so the first one matters for the tiebreaker too.

3 · The Storylines

The Eagles without Hurts. What began as a calf issue became a deep-vein thrombosis and clots in both lungs, disclosed Monday. Hurts is on blood thinners and barred from contact. Tanner McKee is the quarterback, and the backup is Joe Milton III — claimed off Dallas’ practice squad.

Sirianni under pressure. “Everything’s on the table,” including offensive coordinator Sean Mannion’s play-calling. Philadelphia has averaged 14.5 points during the skid and ranks 30th in yards. Lane Johnson retired on Oct 6; Cam Jurgens and A.J. Brown were traded.

Dak’s turnovers. Dallas scored 30-plus a game through four weeks and 29 total in the last two. The Cowboys went into halftime at Green Bay shut out 17-0 for the first time since 2021.

Christian Parker against Vic Fangio. Dallas’ defensive coordinator is a former Fangio assistant; Fangio, on his protégé: “he’ll get through it.” Parker’s defence is 32nd by EPA.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Hurts is the absence that defines the game, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) has missed two games with his status for Monday unclear; without him Philadelphia ran for 57 yards in two weeks. Guard Landon Dickerson’s practice window is open. Dallas expects linebacker DeMarvion Overshown back for the first time since Week 1 and corner Cobie Durant is “trending to play,” but KaVontae Turpin (rib cartilage) is unlikely and Dee Winters is expected out. Official reports for the Monday game were not yet posted.

Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles

No official participation report for the Monday game had been posted; statuses from team sites, the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Dallas Morning News.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Dallas has the eighth-best offence by EPA per play and the worst defence; Philadelphia has the 30th-ranked offence (−0.22 over the last three weeks; only the Chargers and Titans have been worse) and the 27th defence. The Cowboys have the worst run defence in the league and Philadelphia, without Barkley, cannot run. Dallas has allowed 20 or more in every game.

Both teams’ schedules have been in the middle of the league — Philadelphia’s medium, Dallas’ easy.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 93 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin by week, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Philadelphia won its first two by two and four, then lost four in a row — by 20, four, two and 11. Dallas’ last two losses, to Tampa Bay and Green Bay, were its two lowest-scoring games of the season.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Prescott against Fangio’s disguises. Dallas has abandoned the run because it cannot run, and Fangio’s defences are built to make a quarterback who is throwing 50 times hold the ball. If Prescott takes the underneath throws to CeeDee Lamb and avoids the third and fourth interceptions of the week, Dallas wins comfortably. If he forces it, McKee gets short fields — which is the only way Philadelphia’s offence scores.

Cowboys 24, Eagles 20

Dallas has the quarterback and the offence; Philadelphia has a backup and a coaching staff under siege. The Eagles’ defence and the Linc keep it within a score, but not more. Cowboys by four.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:17 AM PT Thursday, Oct 22 · ScoresAndOdds

The forecast agrees on Dallas and stops half a point short of the line.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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Run notes

Lessons applied: L-001, L-002, L-003, L-004, L-005, L-006, L-007, L-008, L-009, L-010, L-011; totals calibration (+1.5 points on every predicted total) applied.

Slate check (L-001). 14 games on the nflverse schedule feed, cross-checked against ScoresAndOdds, VegasInsider and ESPN’s matchup feed: 28 teams play, plus four on bye (BUF, JAX, LAC, WAS) = 32. 14 reports produced. VegasInsider’s write-up says “a 15-game slate”; its own bye list leaves 14.

Kickoff times (L-003). Feed times (Eastern) converted to PT and confirmed on the home or visiting team’s site for every game except Dolphins–Jets, which rests on Yahoo’s and SI’s schedule listings (team pages showed no time). nfl.com’s schedule page was not read directly. Paris: 2:30 PM local on Oct 25, the day France leaves summer time, equals 9:30 AM ET per steelers.com.

Primetime broadcasts (L-002). TNF: Prime Video and NFL+ (nfl.com, NBC Sports Boston; Amazon’s 2026 announcer page for the crew). SNF: NBC, Peacock and Universo per NBC Sports’ pressbox release; booth from seahawks.com only. MNF: ESPN and ABC simulcast, ManningCast on ESPN2, per philadelphiaeagles.com and ESPN’s season release; nfl.com’s game centre lists ESPN only; a game-specific ESPN release was not found.

Odds (L-005, L-006, L-007). All lines from ScoresAndOdds in one pass at 4:17 AM PT. Every opener matched to VegasInsider’s open column; VegasInsider shows no date, so dates come from the first entries in the ScoresAndOdds movement log (May 14; May 13 for PIT–NO). No book was 1.5+ points off the market; the largest gap was 1.0 (two books at 43.5 on NYG–HOU). Over/under consensus withheld. ATS records from covers.com team pages (L-009); no pushes for any of the 28 teams.

Results and ratings (L-004, L-010). Prior results from the nflverse games feed (93 games). All 32 records cross-checked against NFL.com standings and all 14 Week 6 scores against Covers game logs — no disagreements. SRS computed from the feed, not sourced from Pro Football Reference. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–6.

Two-scenario margins (L-008). Baltimore: forecast assumes Huntley (Bengals by 3); with Jackson, Ravens 26-23 (by 3). Tampa Bay: forecast assumes Mayfield (Panthers by 4); with Daniels, Panthers 24-17 (by 7). Green Bay: forecast assumes Love (back, limited) plays (Lions by 3); with Tyrod Taylor, Lions by 7. Injured-but-practising starters with no expected change: Maye (shoulder; without him Bears by 9), Shough (left hand; without him Steelers by 9), Willis (thumb; with McCord, Jets by 7, unchanged), Mahomes (knee; without him Seahawks by 5).

Named personnel (L-011). Starting QB, head coach and kicker confirmed on team sites or beat coverage within 48 hours. The feed was wrong on five: Atlanta’s coach is Kevin Stefanski (feed: Raheem Morris, now San Francisco’s defensive coordinator); Arizona’s is Mike LaFleur (feed: Jonathan Gannon) — last week’s unresolved conflict, now settled by azcardinals.com; Seattle starts Darnold (feed: Lock); Philadelphia starts McKee (feed: Hurts); Baltimore is undecided (feed: Huntley). Rams kicker Brandon McManus confirmed (Grupe on IR). Miami has no kicker on the active roster: Patterson released, Gonzalez on the practice squad.

Non-Week-1 starting quarterbacks (calibration tag). SF–ATL (Penix), NYG–HOU (McCarthy), DAL–PHI (McKee); CIN–BAL if Huntley starts; TB–CAR if Daniels starts.

Outright underdog calls. One this week: Chiefs (+2.5) at 59%, against 89% of spread bets already on Kansas City.

Totals. 10 of 14 predicted totals are under the market even after the +1.5 calibration; the Paris total is the largest gap (40 vs 44.5) because of the wind forecast.

Data gaps. Pro Football Reference not used (SRS computed). ESPN FPI read for all 14 games from ESPN’s matchup feed but not printed. Next Gen Stats: one secondhand figure (Williams 24 of 24 from a clean pocket, via NFL.com). DVOA not gathered. Thursday practice reports not yet posted; Wednesday reports used, and those for Green Bay and Detroit were estimates. No official report yet for Dallas or Philadelphia (Monday game). Roof decisions not announced for Atlanta, Houston and Arizona. Paris weather: Météo-France unreachable and two third-party forecasts disagree on rain (90% vs light). Booths: GB–DET rules analyst not found; MNF booth from the Eagles only; Paris sideline from one source. Beat outlets not reached: SF Chronicle, Mercury News, Cincinnati Enquirer, Houston Chronicle (blocked), Tampa Bay Times, Charlotte Observer, NJ.com, New York Post, Star Tribune (blocked), IndyStar, Miami Herald, Sun Sentinel, cleveland.com, azcentral, PHNX, Post-Gazette, nola.com, Las Vegas Review-Journal (blocked), Kansas City Star, Detroit Free Press and News, Journal Sentinel.

Source conflicts. Lamar Jackson: early Wednesday media reports said he did not practise; the official report lists him limited — official report used. SF pressure rate: Sharp Football 51.4% vs the AJC’s 27% (different definitions) — neither printed. Mason Graham appears limited on nfl.com and is absent from another copy of the Browns’ report. Bryce Young’s Week 6 yardage: 281 vs 381 — 281 used by most sources; not printed. NFC East: Washington 1-4-1 (NFL.com, used) vs 1-3-1 (dallascowboys.com).

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