Who Blinks First

NFL 2026  ·  Week 8  ·  Thursday Oct 29 – Wednesday Nov 4

Fourteen games kick off between tonight in Green Bay and Monday night in Seattle, and every one has its own report. New Orleans, the Giants, San Francisco and Houston are on bye.

This is a week of elite defenses daring good quarterbacks to blink. Minnesota is the league’s last unbeaten team and ranks 29th in offensive efficiency; it wins because Brian Flores blitzes on about seven of every ten dropbacks, and on Sunday he sends that blitz at Jared Goff, who has 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Seattle’s defense, second in EPA allowed, gets Caleb Williams on Monday night. Denver, seventh, gets Patrick Mahomes a week after his worst game. And around the edges the season is coming apart for three teams: Philadelphia has lost Jalen Hurts for the year, Indianapolis traded two captains on Tuesday, and the Chargers are 0-6.

The signature, again: the Margin Meter. Every game carries one bar that shows the forecast margin against the market’s line. The coloured bar is how far, and toward whom, this report expects the game to go; the black tick is where the betting line sits. When they sit together, the forecast agrees with the market. When they split, the gap is the disagreement. This week every forecast picks the betting favourite, and they split most in Jacksonville and Miami, in opposite directions.

The three must-watch games

Also worth your time: Browns at Steelers, two 5-2 teams playing for the AFC North lead, and Bears at Seahawks on Monday night.

Contents — 14 games

Schedule difficulty — schedule already played

Each team is rated on the strength of the opponents it has already faced, not the ones still to come. The primary input is opponents’ SRS (average scoring margin adjusted for schedule, computed from all 107 results so far because Pro Football Reference was not used); opponents’ points for and against per game show the scoring profile behind it, “Opp L5” is the opponents’ combined record in their last five games (recent form, which also carries a quarter of the ranking weight through opponents’ recent point differential), and the combined season record is kept as a check. Teams are split into even thirds by rank: the toughest 11 are hard, the next 10 medium, the last 11 easy.

Tiers are relative, not absolute: a “hard” schedule in a flat year is easier than a “hard” schedule in a top-heavy one. With seven games played (six for teams that have had a bye) one blowout still moves a team several places. New Orleans, the Giants, San Francisco and Houston are on bye this week and appear for completeness.

Where the components disagree. Minnesota is 6-0 against opponents who are a combined 16-25, and Kansas City’s 5-1 has come against the second-softest slate in the league (opponents 15-25, and 10-20 over their last five). Buffalo’s 5-1 has been built against opponents with a losing record too. At the other end, Tampa Bay is 2-5 against the hardest schedule in football — opponents 30-16 — with a +4.7 SRS that says it is much better than its record, and Miami’s 1-5 has come against opponents who are 26-13. Cleveland is 5-2 having been outscored 146-133, the clearest case this week of a record outrunning its scoring; Denver is 5-2 at plus three.

How to read the numbers

Each forecast is a predicted score built from efficiency (EPA per play and success rate, both directions, with Weeks 4–7 weighted more heavily than September), scoring pace, personnel, venue, weather and rest, with the betting line weighed as an input. The win probability and the cover chance are both read off the predicted margin, assuming final margins scatter around a forecast with a standard deviation of about 13.5 points; nothing is stated above 90%. ESPN’s FPI win probability is printed beside ours as a second opinion. Odds are from ScoresAndOdds, taken in one pass at 4:11 AM PT Thursday.

1 · The Setup

Green Bay is 4-3 and somehow last in the NFC North; Carolina just got run over for 258 yards and has to stop the league’s worst ground game to recover.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Green Bay sits fourth in the division at 4-3, two road losses to Minnesota and Detroit away from where it expected to be, and the last one still stings: seven second-half penalties, four red-zone trips that produced seven points, and a fourth-and-4 that Jordan Love missed with Pierre Strong open. Matt LaFleur’s team leads the league in 20-yard plays and in flags. It cannot afford to keep giving drives back.

Carolina arrives angrier at itself. Tampa Bay ran for 258 yards in a 43-13 rout in Charlotte, Bryce Young turned it over three times, and right tackle Taylor Moton’s fractured fibula ended his season. Now Dave Canales takes a line missing Moton, Ikem Ekwonu, Damien Lewis and Torricelli Simpkins III into the loudest stadium it has visited, on four days’ rest. Young has been very good this year — 285 passing yards a game — but he has done it while being chased.

3 · The Storylines

Josh Jacobs, back in the building. Jacobs made his season debut in Detroit after six games on the commissioner’s exempt list and looked like a man who had not played in a while, with a couple of encouraging second-half runs. Green Bay runs for 59.9 yards a game, last in the league, and has not topped 86 in any game. Carolina gives up 153.2, also last. If Jacobs is going to look like himself, it is against this front, behind a line that may start Kevin Zeitler at right guard and converted tackle John Williams at center.

Bryce Young against a four-man rush. Young is pressured on about 44% of dropbacks when opponents rush four or fewer — the most of any qualified passer — and 15 of his league-high 17 sacks came that way. Blitz him and the pressure rate drops to 33.8%. Green Bay is the wrong opponent for that problem: it creates pressure on 38.5% of dropbacks without blitzing, fourth-best, even with Micah Parsons still rehabbing his ACL. Lukas Van Ness has 27 pressures, and rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling has allowed four sacks in five games.

Ejiro Evero’s run defense, again. Since Evero arrived in 2023, opponents have rushed for 200-plus yards 12 times, the most in the league, and Chicago (291) and Tampa Bay (258) have already done it this year. Derrick Brown called the Bucs game “embarrassing.” Canales said, “Together, we’ve got to coach it better, collectively.” Evero’s coverage reputation is strong; it is the second level against the run that keeps breaking. Thursday tests whether the problem is talent or fits.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Both lines are the story. Green Bay is without center Sean Rhyan (ankle) and right guard Travis Glover (knee), with backup center Jacob Monk already on IR — so Williams, a former tackle, snaps the ball in front of Love and Zeitler likely makes his first Packers start. Aaron Banks practiced fully and should return at left guard, which helps. On defense, Zaire Franklin (shin) misses a second game and Isaiah McDuffie and Ty’Ron Hopper carry the linebacker load; Parsons is not yet practicing.

Carolina’s losses hurt more because they compound: Moton on IR, Ekwonu already gone, and both Lewis and Simpkins out at guard, leaving Rasheed Walker, Freeling and a reshuffled interior to protect Young. Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) is out, removing the Panthers’ best edge rusher against a makeshift Packers interior, and corner Akayleb Evans is out. Matthew Golden (questionable, limited Wednesday) is the swing name for Green Bay’s receivers.

Carolina Panthers

Green Bay Packers

Final game designations from the official report (Thursday game).

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The season numbers undersell Green Bay. Its offense is middling overall (EPA/play −0.003) only because the run game is the worst in football (−0.265 per rush); Love’s passing sits at +0.121, and over the last four weeks the offense has climbed to +0.085. The defense is the real thing: −0.057 for the season and −0.147 over the last four, after a stretch that included holding Chicago to seven. Carolina’s defense is moving the other way, +0.074 over the same span after the Tampa Bay game.

Carolina’s offense is steadier than its record — +0.063 a play, 26.5 points a game, and Young’s passing at +0.114 — but its strength has a hole in it: the Panthers win by chunk passes to Tetairoa McMillan, and chunk passes need time. Green Bay leads the league with nine interceptions, seven of them on downfield throws, and Xavier McKinney has three on 13 targets. The schedule has been hard for both (Green Bay #3, Carolina #9). Carolina won 16-13 here last November, but the Packers had won the three meetings before that. Both teams are on four days’ rest, so the edge goes to the team at home with the better defense.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Carolina won the last meeting, 16-13 in Green Bay in 2025; Green Bay has won three of the last four.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Green Bay’s four-man rush against Carolina’s rebuilt right side. Watch the first few third downs when Carolina throws. If Gannon’s front gets home rushing only four — Van Ness off the edge, Wyatt if he plays pushing the guard back — Young is in the situation where he has struggled most all season, and Green Bay still has seven defenders in coverage. That is how downfield throws become interceptions. If Gannon has to blitz to get there, Young’s pressure rate drops and McMillan gets one-on-one chances.

The tell is where Freeling and the right guard end up. A rookie left tackle playing on the right, next to a guard pulled off the bench, is the softest spot on the field. Count how often Carolina keeps a tight end or Chuba Hubbard in to help on that side; every extra blocker is one fewer receiver against the league’s best ball-hawking secondary. If Carolina can win with five blockers, it is a shootout. The call: it can’t, and Green Bay sacks Young at least three times.

Packers 24, Panthers 20

Green Bay wins. Both lines are compromised, but the Packers’ problem is run blocking against the league’s worst run defense, while Carolina’s problem is pass protection against a front that does not need to blitz. Jacobs gives Green Bay a usable ground game for the first time all year, Love hits enough downfield shots to Watson, and a late Young turnover settles it.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast sits slightly above the line on Green Bay (about 4 points vs. 3.5) and well under the 47.5 total — both pass protection units are compromised and both teams are on four days’ rest.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Lamar Jackson practiced in full for the first time in 24 days. Now he gets the league’s best offense on the road.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Lamar Jackson has missed three straight games with the high ankle sprain he suffered Oct. 4 against Tennessee, and Baltimore went 1-2 with Tyler Huntley. On Wednesday, ankle taped, Jackson took every rep for the first time since. The difference he makes is not subtle: the Ravens scored 14 touchdowns in his 14 quarters this year and five in the 14 without him. He comes back in Orchard Park, where Buffalo has won three of the last four meetings — including last year’s 41-40 opener, when the Bills erased a 15-point fourth-quarter hole.

Buffalo is 5-1 out of its bye and tied for the AFC’s best record, with the league’s most efficient offense and a defense that ranks 29th in EPA per play. Josh Allen has eight rushing touchdowns and has scored on all seven of his goal-line carries. Baltimore is 4-3, last in a division where every team sits above .500, and has been outscored 114-44 after halftime. A third straight loss would leave the Ravens chasing three teams for the rest of the year.

3 · The Storylines

Lamar Jackson’s left ankle. Full participation is a box on a report; how Jackson moves on Sunday is the real question. “I’m just trying to move how I move,” he said Wednesday, adding that he would gauge his mobility and pain before deciding. Jesse Minter stayed careful: “The more you’re able to do and respond from and feel from certainly raises your optimism.” Jackson also unlocks Derrick Henry, who has averaged 4.5 yards per carry with him on the field and 3.3 without him. Henry ran for 45 yards on 17 carries in Cincinnati.

Jim Leonhard’s secondary, minus C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson is suspended for spitting at a Raiders player, so Damar Hamlin starts next to Cole Bishop. The bigger problem is flags: Buffalo leads the league with 12 defensive holding calls, and its 21 defensive penalties are the second-most. “We’re not a very good defense at overcoming adversity in the form of penalties right now,” Leonhard said. Davison Igbinosun has “earned a high majority of the snaps” at corner. Against a quarterback who extends plays, grabby coverage is how drives stay alive.

Jesse Minter vs. the second half. Baltimore led Cincinnati 13-0 at halftime last week and lost 35-13. Since 2020 the Ravens have blown a league-high 17 double-digit second-half leads, two of them to Buffalo. Minter admitted the problem has become partly mental: “We have total control over that, and that’s what we need to understand.” Derrick Henry took it on himself after the loss: “The leaders have to lead, have to have accountability and have to bring the juice.” In this building, against this quarterback, a 10-point lead will not be safe.

Josh Allen at the 1-yard line. Allen has 87 career rushing touchdowns, more than any quarterback in history, and is 43-for-53 scoring from the 1- or 2-yard line — the best rate of any player since 1977. This year he is seven-for-seven from there, and he leads all quarterbacks with 240 rushing yards. Baltimore’s rookie Mike Green said the plan is disciplined rush lanes: “We know that he’s a bigger body, and we know that he’s fast as well.” If Roquan Smith can’t go, stopping Allen in short yardage gets much harder.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The biggest question on Baltimore’s side is in the middle of the defense. Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton both sat out Wednesday with knee issues; Minter called them “typical after-game things,” but if either one misses the game, Baltimore loses its best answer to Allen’s scrambles and the Bills’ tight ends. Safety Jaylinn Hawkins also missed practice, and edge Tavius Robinson is out for the season. Up front, rookie right guard Vega Ioane has an MCL sprain and is expected to miss time, so Emery Jones Jr. or Andrew Vorhees starts there, next to a limited Ronnie Stanley and John Simpson.

Buffalo comes out of the bye healthier but not whole. Gardner-Johnson is suspended. Right tackle Spencer Brown missed Wednesday with a back injury. DJ Moore (shoulder) and Ed Oliver (knee) both returned to practice on a limited basis after missing the last two games, Moore in a red non-contact jersey. Dalton Kincaid, the Bills’ leading receiver, was limited with a chest injury.

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Buffalo’s offense is the best in football by EPA (+0.204 per play), with a 48.9% success rate and a passing game at +0.331 per dropback. Baltimore’s defense is average overall (+0.011, 17th) and softer against the pass (+0.055) than the run (−0.062). The Ravens’ offense ranks eighth for the season (+0.081, passing +0.193), but from Weeks 4 through 7 — almost all Huntley — it fell to +0.005. Jackson’s return is the difference between those two numbers.

Buffalo’s defense is the matchup’s weak point: +0.128 EPA per play (29th) and +0.234 against the pass, though solid against the run (−0.063). That last number matters for Henry, who has been stuffed in short yardage for two weeks. The Bills score 32.8 points a game and allow 28.5; Baltimore scores 24.1 and allows 23.9. Neither has played a hard schedule (Buffalo’s ranks 23rd, Baltimore’s 22nd). The Bills are 3-0 on the road and 2-1 at home, and they come in on 14 days’ rest. For the second straight week, Baltimore faces a team coming off its bye. The last six meetings split 3-3, but Buffalo has won the two playoff games and last year’s opener.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Buffalo won 41-40 in last season’s opener and the 2024 divisional round 27-25; Baltimore’s last win was 35-10 in Week 4 of 2024.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Lamar Jackson outside the pocket on a taped left ankle. Watch the first time Buffalo’s rush collapses the pocket and Jackson has to leave it. A healthy Jackson escapes to either side, resets, and throws on the run; a quarterback nursing a high ankle sprain tends to drift, throw early, or take the sack. Greg Rousseau leads the Bills with six sacks and will test Ronnie Stanley, and Baltimore’s right guard spot belongs to a backup with Vega Ioane hurt. If Jackson can plant and cut, he turns Buffalo’s grabby coverage into flags and first downs.

If he can’t, Baltimore is the offense from the last three weeks: a stalled run game, a stack of third-and-longs, and no second-half points. The tell comes early. A designed keeper or a scramble for 10-plus on the opening drives means the ankle is fine and this becomes a shootout. Jackson staying in the pocket on third-and-6 means it isn’t, and Allen will have the ball in the fourth quarter with Baltimore’s defense tired. The call: Jackson moves well enough to keep it close, but not enough to finish.

Bills 28, Ravens 24

Buffalo wins. Jackson’s return makes Baltimore dangerous again, and the Bills’ secondary will give up big plays without Gardner-Johnson. But Allen is unstoppable near the goal line, the Ravens haven’t held a second-half lead in weeks, and Baltimore’s interior line is patched together against a rested defensive front. Expect a back-and-forth game that Allen decides late, either with his legs or with a throw no one else in the league would try.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Our forecast has Buffalo by 4, close to the 3-point line; our total sits below 54.5 because Baltimore’s defense is better against the run and both teams will lean on long drives.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Cincinnati scored 35 straight in Baltimore. Tennessee has scored three second-quarter points all year.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Cincinnati comes in off the most explosive half of football anyone has played this year. Down 13-0 at halftime in Baltimore, the Bengals scored 35 straight, and Joe Burrow went 16-for-18 for 249 yards and four touchdowns after the break. He leads the league with a 71.7 completion percentage and has 15 touchdown passes against three interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase sat out Wednesday with what the team listed as rest and an ankle, and no one around Paycor sounds worried about him.

Tennessee is 1-6 under first-year coach Robert Saleh and has lost four one-score games. The Titans have outscored opponents 55-24 in fourth quarters and been outscored 72-3 in second quarters. Cam Ward hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass outside a fourth quarter all season. It’s the Titans’ last game before the bye, and it looks lopsided. The interest is whether Ward finds anything in the first three quarters against a defense that leads the league in sacks.

3 · The Storylines

Cam Ward, fourth-quarter quarterback. The 2025 first overall pick has 1,179 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions, a 73.8 rating, and 5.7 yards per attempt, 32nd of 33 qualifiers. All four of his touchdown passes came in fourth quarters. He has improved in one area: he’s been sacked just 11 times. Saleh defended him after the Browns loss: “You can’t possibly watch that film and say Cam Ward did not play good, winning football.” Ward knows what has to change: “We have to continue to get into a rhythm, continue to stay in a rhythm and not have little lull here and there.”

Ja’Marr Chase’s halftime speech. Chase had 62 yards in Baltimore, but his biggest moment was at halftime, telling the team they had to pick it up — the cleaned-up version. Bryan Cook said Chase came over to the defense with a promise: “You get one more stop, we got y’all.” Burrow said, “When Ja’Marr speaks, it has a lot of impact, and that one certainly did.” Tee Higgins caught six passes for 148 yards that day and leads the team with 571. Chase’s rest day on Wednesday reads as maintenance, not a warning.

Jeffery Simmons and the trade deadline. Simmons leads all defensive tackles with 28 pressures and has four sacks, and his name keeps coming up in trade talk. “I haven’t heard anything from my agent, I haven’t heard anything from this organization. As far as I know, I am going to be here,” he said Wednesday. Sunday he lines up against an interior with a rookie left guard, Dylan Fairchild, in front of a quarterback who has been sacked only 10 times. If Tennessee is going to make this a game, Simmons has to be the reason.

Tony Pollard against the defense that stopped Derrick Henry. Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries against Cleveland and forced eight missed tackles. He scored all three Tennessee touchdowns. He’s also a trade candidate. Cincinnati held Henry to 45 yards on 2.6 per carry last week, and its run defense is a strength (−0.108 EPA per rush). With Tyjae Spears missing Wednesday, Pollard will get the volume. The Titans need him to keep Ward in third-and-short.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Tennessee’s biggest absence would be Carnell Tate. The No. 4 overall pick missed Wednesday with a shoulder injury after a hard hit, and he’s the offense’s only real field-stretcher: 413 yards on 34 catches, 11.8 air yards per target. Without him, a passing game that already ranks near the bottom in yards per attempt comes down to Wan’Dale Robinson underneath, at 5.9 air yards per target, with a limited Calvin Ridley (hip). Tyjae Spears (knee) and edge John Franklin-Myers (groin) also sat. Punter Tommy Townsend (knee) missed practice, and the Titans signed Thomas Morstead to the practice squad.

Cincinnati’s worries are at safety. Kyle Dugger (quad) is week to week, and Jordan Battle (hamstring) was limited. Tight end Erick All Jr. is on IR with a torn ACL, but Mike Gesicki has caught a touchdown in four straight games. Chase and Jonathan Allen got rest days.

Tennessee Titans

Cincinnati Bengals

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The efficiency gap is wide in both directions. Cincinnati’s offense is +0.109 EPA per play (seventh) and has been better lately, at +0.158 from Weeks 4 through 7, with a 48.5% success rate and passing at +0.207. Tennessee’s defense is 24th (+0.057) and has defended the pass badly (+0.134) while holding up against the run (−0.039). That suits Cincinnati, whose rushing attack ranks near the bottom of the league (−0.080 per rush). Burrow will throw. The Bengals have allowed only 10 sacks, tied for fifth-fewest.

Tennessee’s offense is 31st (−0.135) and has been worse lately (−0.183 over the last four games), negative both passing and rushing, at 1.45 points per drive. It faces a Cincinnati defense that ranks 10th (−0.041), stops the run (−0.108), and leads the league with 21 sacks. The Bengals score 27.2 points a game and allow 20.3; the Titans score 15.4 and allow 22.3. The schedules make the gap bigger: Cincinnati’s has been the seventh-hardest, Tennessee’s the third-easiest. The Titans are 0-4 at home and 1-2 on the road, with the win at Indianapolis. In the 81st meeting of the series (Titans lead 41-38-1), Cincinnati won 37-27 in Nashville in 2024 and 31-20 the last time the teams played at Paycor, in 2020.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Cincinnati won 37-27 in Nashville in 2024; Tennessee won 27-3 in 2023. The teams have split the last four.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The second quarter. Tennessee has a pattern. The Titans start fast — they’ve outscored opponents 34-27 in first quarters, and they led Cleveland 14-0 last week — and then the offense disappears. They’ve been outscored 72-3 in second quarters. Their scripted opening drives work; once defenses adjust, Ward stops completing anything past the sticks, punts pile up, and the opponent gets short fields.

Cincinnati has the opposite pattern lately: shut out in the first half in Baltimore, then 35 points after halftime. If the Titans score early, don’t read much into it. Watch the second quarter. If Tennessee is still moving the ball on its third and fourth drives — Pollard getting yards after contact, Ward completing throws past the sticks — this stays close into the fourth, where the Titans have been good. If the second quarter goes like the other seven, Burrow will be ahead by two scores at halftime. The call: the second quarter goes like the others.

Bengals 27, Titans 17

Cincinnati wins comfortably. Burrow is completing nearly 72% of his passes against a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, while the Bengals’ pass rush faces a quarterback averaging 5.7 yards per attempt who may be missing his only deep threat. Tennessee’s fourth-quarter fight is real, and Pollard can make a few drives respectable, but the game should be decided before the Titans’ best quarter arrives.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Our forecast has Cincinnati by 10, in line with the spread; our total sits well below 46.5 because Tennessee’s offense averages 1.45 points per drive and faces the league’s sack leader.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Arizona has never lost at AT&T Stadium. Dallas has the league’s worst defense and a short week to fix it.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Dallas finally looked like the team its roster says it should be on Monday night in Philadelphia: 204 rushing yards, Javonte Williams’ career-high 155, three Dak Prescott touchdown passes and no turnovers. Now it gets a 2-5 opponent at home with four of its next five games in Arlington, and the NFC East is wide open enough that one good month changes the season. Brian Schottenheimer, who spent last week defending his playcalling, needs this stretch to look like a turn and not a blip.

Arizona is the wrong opponent to assume anything against. The Cardinals have beaten Dallas four straight times and are 4-0 all-time at AT&T Stadium, including Jacoby Brissett’s three-touchdown night there a year ago. They also arrive with the league’s worst scoring defense, a receiver room thinned by the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade and Jalen Brooks’ season-ending wrist surgery, and an offense that keeps reaching the goal line and walking away with field goals. Mike LaFleur’s first season is drifting; this is the kind of road game that either stops the slide or confirms it.

3 · The Storylines

Jacoby Brissett and the goal line. Mike LaFleur kept Brissett as the starter for an eighth straight game, and his reasoning was specific: the Cardinals have been inside the 10 ten times in the last two games. They have also gone 1-for-10 in the red zone in that span after converting 9 of 13 in the four games before. Brissett owns this building — he beat Dallas here last November — but with Harrison traded and Brooks gone, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are carrying most of the target load. If those drives keep stalling at the 8, the quarterback conversation gets louder.

Javonte Williams’ streak. Williams is tied for the league lead with eight rushing touchdowns and has scored in five straight games and six straight on the road. Monday’s 155 yards were the most by a Cowboys back since Ezekiel Elliott in 2016, and he was not tackled behind the line once. Arizona’s run defense is the one part of that unit that holds up, so this is the first test of whether the Philadelphia performance was a breakthrough for the Dallas front or a product of facing a team that is falling apart.

Christian Parker’s defense, now with help. Dallas moved its first-year coordinator to the booth and brought in Mike Pettine as a senior assistant after Week 5. The sacks have come since: Quinnen Williams leads every defensive tackle in the league with nine tackles for loss. The problem that remains is the opening script — Dallas has allowed a touchdown on the opponent’s first possession in four straight games. Shemar James, handed the green dot on Monday, will be calling the defense at home for the first time with the crowd noise he admits makes it harder.

Jeremiyah Love’s return. The No. 3 overall pick practiced on a limited basis Wednesday after missing two games with a left ankle injury, and Tyler Allgeier did not practice with a toe issue. Love has 245 yards on 67 carries, a quiet start for a back drafted that high. If he plays, Arizona finally has a runner who can threaten the edge of a Dallas defense that ranked last in run defense by yardage before Monday.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Arizona’s biggest problem is the right side of its offensive line. Right tackle Elijah Wilkinson (knee) and right guard Jon Gaines II (ankle) did not practice Wednesday on a line that was already patched together, which puts Josh Fryar and Hayden Conner in line to face Quinnen Williams and a pass rush that has finally started to get home. Both backs are uncertain — Allgeier missed practice, Love was limited — and Walter Nolen III’s ankle kept him out again. Michael Wilson practiced in a non-contact jersey with a rib injury; he is the only proven wide receiver left.

Dallas did not practice Wednesday after the Monday night game, so its report was an estimate. George Pickens (shoulder, hamstring) and Quinnen Williams (hamstring) were listed as limited, which matters because Williams is the defense’s best player and Pickens just started moving into the slot. KaVontae Turpin (ribs) and Dee Winters (calf), both inactive Monday, were listed as non-participants. Rookie safety Caleb Downs (ankle) was limited.

Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Both defenses are bad in the same way, and that is the story of this game. Dallas allows +0.273 EPA per dropback and Arizona +0.263; of this week’s teams, only Miami is worse. The difference is who can exploit it. Dallas throws for +0.149 EPA per play with a 47.7% success rate and scores almost three points per drive. Arizona’s passing game sits at -0.007 and has fallen off since September, with the offense at -0.087 EPA per play over Weeks 4–7 against +0.073 for Dallas. The one place Arizona holds an edge is its run defense (-0.116 EPA per carry), which is why Monday’s rushing performance needs a second data point before anyone trusts it.

The schedules flatter Dallas: its opponents rank 25th in difficulty, and Monday’s win came over a Philadelphia team starting a backup quarterback. Arizona’s two wins both came at SoFi Stadium; it is 0-3 at home and has allowed 30-plus points in all five losses. The series history points the other way — four straight Arizona wins, three of them in Arlington — but that history ran through rosters and coaching staffs that are mostly gone on both sides. Dallas has one fewer day of rest after the Monday trip, a small cost for a team that came out healthy.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Arizona has won four straight against Dallas, including 27-17 at AT&T Stadium in 2025 and 38-10 there in 2020.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Arizona inside the Dallas 20. Arizona will move the ball. It is tied for the league lead in goal-to-go drives, and Dallas has given up a touchdown on the opening possession four games running. The question is what happens once the field shrinks. With Harrison and Brooks gone, the red-zone menu is McBride on option routes, Michael Wilson on slants and heavy 13-personnel runs — and Dallas knows it. Watch the Cardinals’ first two trips inside the 20: if Brissett is checking down to the flat on third-and-goal and Chad Ryland trots out, the game is drifting toward Dallas.

On the other side, Dallas’ red-zone answer is simpler: Javonte Williams behind a line that just pushed Philadelphia’s front around. If Arizona’s run defense, its one real strength, holds him under four yards a carry near the goal line, the Cowboys have to win with Prescott throwing into tight windows — something that cost them four interceptions against Tampa Bay and Green Bay. The call: Arizona settles for field goals too often, and Dallas scores touchdowns.

Cowboys 30, Cardinals 23

Dallas wins and it is not especially close by the fourth quarter. Arizona has enough to keep pace for a half — McBride against a linebacker group still sorting out who wears the green dot, and a Dallas defense that leaks early — but its injured right side of the line will struggle against Quinnen Williams, and its red-zone offense has stopped working. Prescott and Javonte Williams score touchdowns where the Cardinals kick field goals, and the streak in Arlington ends.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast sits close to the line, a half-point more on Dallas on margin and slightly under the total because Arizona’s offense finishes so few drives.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The NFL’s only unbeaten team brings the most extreme blitz in modern football to a quarterback with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Minnesota is 6-0 and has won by smothering people: 12.3 points allowed a game, tied for the league lead in sacks, a +7 turnover margin that leads the NFL. It has not needed much offense, which is fortunate, because it has not had much. Kyler Murray, signed in March and named the starter over J.J. McCarthy in August, is still finding Justin Jefferson; the Vikings rank 29th in yards per game.

Detroit is the opposite team. Goff has 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions, the Lions score 30.7 a game, and the defense has given up 27.5 — although last week’s 20-17 win over Green Bay was its best day. A win puts the Lions at 5-2, 2-0 in the division, and hands Minnesota its first loss. A loss leaves Detroit three games behind the Vikings before November. The catch is health: Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown both missed Wednesday’s practice.

3 · The Storylines

Brian Flores’ blitz-everything defense. Minnesota has blitzed more than any team for four straight seasons, but this is new territory: about 70% of dropbacks through Week 7, when no team since 2006 had been above 60% at this point. Against Indianapolis it sent extra rushers on 85.2% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks, the highest single-game rate of the Next Gen Stats era, and the Colts netted 64 passing yards. Flores knows the risk — “Anybody who’s doing the same thing over and over again” eventually gets caught — and Detroit is built to try.

Jared Goff and the cat-and-mouse game. Goff is the first quarterback with 14 touchdown passes and no turnovers through his team’s first six games, and he has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio and the best EPA per dropback against the blitz. “There is that cat-and-mouse chess game that they’ll play, and it’s part of the fun,” he said this week. Dan Campbell called him “very poised” and “very smart.” Minnesota beat Goff twice last season; this version of him, with this protection, is a different problem.

Kyler Murray and an offense still looking for itself. Murray missed Week 2 after getting hurt in the opener and has been careful since — two interceptions all year, but throws to Jefferson sailing wide on glance routes and third-down curls. Jefferson has 302 yards through six games. Against the Lions’ pass defense, which has struggled all season, this is the week the Vikings’ offense should look like the one Kevin O’Connell designed. If it does not here, the questions get louder.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Detroit’s list matters most. Gibbs (shoulder, a new injury) and St. Brown (ankle, from the Green Bay game) did not practice Wednesday, and their Sunday statuses will not come until Friday. Without them, Detroit loses its two most dangerous ways to punish a blitz — the screen to Gibbs and the quick throw to St. Brown — and leans on Jameson Williams and the tight ends. The good news is safety Kerby Joseph, who practiced for the first time this season. Several starters, including Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson, sat out on rest days.

Minnesota’s concerns are on offense. Aaron Jones (knee) did not practice after a low hit against the Colts and has played much of the year on a sprained MCL; Jordan Mason would carry more. Left guard Joe Huber (knee soreness) sat, with Trevor Keegan and rookie Caleb Tiernan taking reps, and right tackle Brian O’Neill was limited. Hutchinson against a backup guard and a limited O’Neill is a real problem for Murray.

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The efficiency numbers say Minnesota is the better team, and the record agrees. The Vikings’ defense is first in EPA per play (−0.193) and has been even better over the last four weeks (−0.210), with a 35.1% success rate allowed. Detroit’s defense is 31st (+0.134), and its pass defense (+0.224) is the weakness Murray should be able to attack. On points, the Vikings have outscored opponents by 51 in six games; the Lions by 19.

But Detroit’s offense (+0.140, fourth) is more trustworthy week to week than any defense, and Minnesota’s offense is 29th at −0.096, with a run game (−0.200) that cannot carry it. Minnesota has also faced a softer schedule than its record implies (#18) and Detroit’s has been softer still (#26), so neither side has been fully tested. The Vikings swept the series last year, but Detroit is 3-0 at Ford Field this season, and Minnesota’s offense away from its defense is the least proven unit on the field. Both teams have a full week.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Minnesota swept last season (27-24 in Detroit, 23-10 at home); Detroit had won the four before that.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Goff’s first read against Flores’ zero blitz. Minnesota lives on first and second down: it leads the league in first-down sacks, and opponents face an average of 9.3 yards to go on second down. Watch the safeties before the snap. When both creep toward the line and a linebacker walks up over the center, Flores is sending more than Detroit can block, and Goff has about two seconds. If the ball comes out to a back in the flat or a crosser behind the blitz, Detroit gets chunk plays against a defense with nobody deep — Minnesota has allowed 10 gains of more than 30 yards despite everything else.

The count to keep is Detroit’s second-and-long. If the Lions are routinely staying ahead of the chains, the blitz is being punished. If Goff is eating early-down sacks, Minnesota’s offense only has to manage the game. Gibbs’ availability tilts this: he is the outlet that makes blitzing costly. The call: Goff wins enough of these snaps — with or without Gibbs — to keep Detroit on schedule, and the Vikings’ offense cannot keep pace.

Lions 23, Vikings 20

Detroit hands Minnesota its first loss. The Vikings’ defense is the best in football, but a blitz-heavy plan assumes the quarterback breaks first, and Goff is the last passer who will. The Lions do not run away with it — Minnesota’s pressure will produce a couple of drive-killing sacks — but Murray’s offense has not shown it can score 24 against anyone, and it needs to here.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast agrees on Detroit but sees a closer game than the line, and a lower-scoring one than 46.5 — Minnesota’s defense suppresses everyone and its offense rarely runs up points.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

A four-game losing streak against a coach who has lost 19 of 24. Somebody’s week gets better.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Raiders started 3-0 under Klint Kubiak and have lost four straight, giving up nearly 36 points a game in the process. The Jets are 2-5, booed off their own field after losing to a Miami team that had not led a game all season, and Aaron Glenn is 5-19 with Garrett Wilson airing his frustration in public. Neither team is good. Both are close enough to respectable that a win this week reshapes the conversation — and a loss accelerates the one already happening.

There is a quarterback subplot on each sideline. Kubiak spent Sunday night saying he was evaluating everything, then announced Monday that Cousins stays the starter and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza will play “at some point” but “not this week.” Across the field, Geno Smith is completing 70% of his passes a year after leading the league in interceptions for Las Vegas, which traded him to New York for a sixth-round pick. He says it is just another game. It will not feel like one if he wins it.

3 · The Storylines

Geno Smith against his old team. Smith went 2-13 as the Raiders’ starter last season and threw 17 interceptions. This year he has 10 touchdowns and two picks, and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. has given him a deep threat — two 50-yard completions against Miami alone. The catch is protection: Smith has been sacked 21 times, third-most in the league, and has lost more yards to sacks than anyone. “It’s another game,” he said. The Raiders’ pass rush, which ranks near the top in pressure rate without blitzing much, will make it a long one if the line breaks down.

Garrett Wilson wants the ball. Wilson was caught on camera yelling on the bench during the Miami loss after three targets, the second straight quiet week for the team’s best receiver. On Wednesday he said he wants to stay in New York but loves winning more, and pushed back on the idea that defenses are taking him away: “They’ve got to cover me.” Glenn and Frank Reich keep saying he is the priority. Against a Raiders secondary that has allowed 312 passing yards a game during the skid, there is no excuse for another three-target day.

Kirk Cousins, still holding the job. At 38, Cousins leads the league with 16 touchdown passes and has been the least of the Raiders’ problems. Kubiak, who has known him since Minnesota, calls his play “superb” and says there is no controversy. But the Raiders are 1-for-5 in the red zone against the Rams and among the league’s worst finishers, and Mendoza is standing behind him. One of Cousins’ old Vikings teammates, Jets defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, said he would love to finally hit him after years of not being allowed to in practice.

Ashton Jeanty and the run game nobody can find. Las Vegas has not reached 100 rushing yards since Week 3 and ran for 48 against the Rams, with Jeanty averaging 1.9 a carry. He leads all backs in receptions, so he is producing — just not on the ground. On Wednesday he took a shot at the Jets: “Couple guys out there that don’t really want to tackle. But I’m not gonna say names.” The Jets’ run defense grades well by efficiency, which makes that a bold thing to say out loud.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Jets’ front is the story. Rookie David Bailey — the No. 2 overall pick, with 5.5 sacks and 34 pressures, the most by any player through seven games since that stat was tracked — did not practice Wednesday with a groin injury Glenn called “lingering.” T’Vondre Sweat (knee) and Joseph Ossai (ankle) are week-to-week. Without Bailey and Sweat, New York’s pass rush against Cousins goes from a strength to a question. On offense, Breece Hall (quad) and left guard Dylan Parham (knee) were limited after being out since the Week 3 loss in Detroit, which suggests at least one could return; swing tackle Max Mitchell is in the concussion protocol.

For Las Vegas, Brock Bowers (calf) and right tackle DJ Glaze (ankle) were limited, and Patrick Johnson (stinger) sat out. Bowers is the engine of a Raiders offense that uses two tight ends more than anyone in the league; a limited Bowers changes what Kubiak can call.

Las Vegas Raiders

New York Jets

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The Raiders’ season splits cleanly in two. Through three weeks they were winning; since Week 4 their defense has collapsed, allowing +0.227 EPA per play over Weeks 4–7 — the worst stretch any defense in this week’s slate has put together — and 143.6 rushing yards a game. Their offense has been stable, near league average overall (-0.008 EPA per play) because Cousins’ passing (+0.116) covers for a rushing attack (-0.228) that is one of the two worst in football by EPA. The losses came against Kansas City, New England, Buffalo and the Rams, which explains some of it but not all of it.

The Jets are average almost everywhere: +0.013 offensive EPA, -0.002 defensive, and a 45% success rate on both sides. Their run defense (-0.144 EPA per carry) is a real strength and lines up directly against the thing Las Vegas cannot do. Four of their five losses were by one score, and they have scored on the opening possession three straight weeks. Las Vegas has played the easier schedule (24th against 16th). The Raiders won both meetings since 2020. Both teams are on normal rest; the Raiders’ last trip east ended 45-17 in New England.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Las Vegas won both recent meetings, 16-12 in 2023 and 31-28 in 2020.

6 · The Thing To Watch

The Jets’ pass protection against Maxx Crosby’s front. Geno Smith has been sacked 21 times, and the Raiders are among the league’s best at generating pressure without sending extra rushers — mostly because Maxx Crosby draws a chip or double team on a third of his snaps, leaving Malcolm Koonce, Kwity Paye and Tonka Hemingway in one-on-ones. Watch where the Jets slide protection on third down. If they keep a tight end or Braelon Allen in to help with Crosby, Smith has fewer places to throw, and Wilson’s target count stays low again. If they leave Armand Membou or Olu Fashanu alone on him, expect a strip-sack chance by halftime.

The flip side is that a clean pocket has been Smith’s best friend: when he has time, he is completing 70% and hitting Omar Cooper Jr. deep. The Raiders have allowed 312 passing yards a game during the skid. The call: the Jets give Smith enough time often enough — leaning on Allen early to slow Crosby down — and the Raiders end up kicking field goals while New York finishes drives.

Jets 26, Raiders 23

The Jets win a close one. The Raiders’ defense has stopped stopping anybody, and their offense cannot run the ball to protect it, which means more Cousins dropbacks against a Jets defense that is ordinary but not broken and more Matt Gay field goals when drives stall. New York’s pass rush without Bailey is a real concern, but Allen running into a defense allowing five yards a carry keeps Smith in manageable downs. Glenn gets a week of quiet; Kubiak’s Mendoza question gets louder.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast agrees with the line on the winner and leans about a point further toward the Jets; it sits slightly over the total because the Raiders’ defense has been allowing points to everybody.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Two 5-2 teams, one AFC North lead, and a Browns franchise that has not won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Nobody drew this up in August. Cleveland and Pittsburgh both sit at 5-2, and the Browns already own the first meeting, a 27-24 Thursday-night win in Week 4 that ended with Andre Szmyt drilling a 56-yarder with 10 seconds left. Win again and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker, a 3-0 division mark, and a real claim on the North. Lose and the Browns are back to being the team that keeps finding last-minute escapes against the Titans and Ravens of the world.

It is also a grinder. Both offenses sit in the bottom eight in EPA per play; both defenses are top-11. Expect field position, third downs and kickers. The Steelers are back home after an eight-hour flight from Paris and an adjusted practice week, and Mike McCarthy’s offense has been better lately, scoring more efficiently over the last four weeks than in September. The Browns bring the hotter story and the healthier quarterback narrative; Pittsburgh brings the building, where the home team has won the last six meetings in this series.

3 · The Storylines

Deshaun Watson, closer. Watson won the job over Shedeur Sanders in camp under first-year coach Todd Monken, and the fourth quarter has become his office: go-ahead drives in three straight weeks in September, including 4-of-5 for 46 yards to set up Szmyt’s winner against Pittsburgh, and another escape at Tennessee last week. The first three quarters are a different story — Cleveland still ranks 26th in EPA per play. Watson is 0-3 against the Steelers in his career outside that Week 4 win.

Aaron Rodgers, still standing. Rodgers threw his 540th touchdown pass in Paris, passing Peyton Manning for third all time, and then scrambled for a third-down conversion to ice a 16-10 win over the Saints. “Sometimes you’ve got to suck it up and make a play for your guys,” he said. In Week 4 Cleveland sacked him five times and hit him 10 times while he threw two interceptions. He needs a cleaner pocket this time, and he has a running game behind him: Jaylen Warren is at 561 yards after 101 in France.

Jared Verse vs. the Steelers, again. Verse came out of the first meeting saying Pittsburgh played dirty, and Monken spent this week warning his team against hurting itself in a hostile building. The problem: Verse did not practice Wednesday with knee inflammation, and Mason Graham (four sacks) and Mike Hall Jr. were limited with ankle injuries. Cleveland’s plan in Week 4 was five-man pressure with man-to-man behind it. If the front is diminished, that plan gets much harder to run.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Cleveland’s offensive line is the bigger worry. Right tackle Tytus Howard left the Tennessee game with a concussion and did not practice Wednesday; Dawand Jones would start in his place. Center Elgton Jenkins (knee) also sat out — he missed the first meeting too, so the Browns have played the Steelers without him once already. Two backups up front against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith is a bad trade for an offense that already starts slow.

Pittsburgh’s concern is the secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing through a broken wrist since September and routinely sits Wednesdays, so his DNP is routine. Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter both missed practice with hamstrings, which thins the dime and special teams and could push Sean Murphy-Bunting or Terell Smith into the game. Watt, Cam Heyward and Darnell Washington were rest days. DeShon Elliott is back from injured reserve after 19 snaps in Paris.

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Strip away the records and these are mirror images. Cleveland’s offense is 26th in EPA per play (−0.050) with a 42.4% success rate; Pittsburgh’s is 25th (−0.048). The defenses are 11th and 8th. The difference is shape. Pittsburgh runs: its rushing EPA is positive (+0.069) while its passing is not (−0.107), and the run game faces a Cleveland front that has been good against it (−0.085). Cleveland is the opposite — Watson’s passing is slightly positive, the run game (−0.167) has been a drag — and the Steelers’ pass defense (+0.006) is the softer half of that unit. Form tilts toward Pittsburgh: its offense has been positive over Weeks 4–7 (+0.040) while Cleveland’s has barely moved (−0.043).

Schedule matters too. Pittsburgh has faced the sixth-hardest slate and still sits at 5-2 with a simple rating near +4; Cleveland’s path has been middling and its margin is slightly negative despite the record — 133 points scored, 146 allowed. That is what a team living on fourth-quarter drives looks like. Both teams are unbeaten at home, the home side has won six straight in this series, and the Steelers return on a normal seven days, though theirs included a trans-Atlantic flight and a compressed Wednesday.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Cleveland won the Week 4 meeting 27-24 at home; the Browns’ last regular-season win in Pittsburgh was in 2003.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Watt and Highsmith vs. Cleveland’s patched right side. Watch the Browns’ right tackle on Cleveland’s first few third downs. If Tytus Howard can’t clear protocol, Dawand Jones gets T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on obvious passing downs, with a backup center beside him if Elgton Jenkins sits again. Pittsburgh does not need to blitz to get home against that look; it can rush four, drop seven, and squeeze Watson’s short, safe throws — his average target depth was among the shortest in the league early in the year.

You will know it is going Pittsburgh’s way if Watson is bailing out of the pocket to his left on second-and-long and Cleveland’s drives stall at midfield. You will know it is going Cleveland’s way if Judkins gets four yards on first down and Watson is throwing on schedule. The Browns won the first meeting from ahead, building a 21-7 lead in the second quarter; they cannot spot Rodgers a 10-point lead and ask Watson to close again. The call: Pittsburgh’s edge rushers win this matchup, and the Browns don’t get the fourth-quarter chance they’ve been living on.

Steelers 21, Browns 17

Pittsburgh. The Browns are a better story than they are a team — a negative point differential, a 26th-ranked offense, and now a backup right tackle and a missing center against Watt and Highsmith. The Steelers run the ball, keep Rodgers upright long enough to find DK Metcalf twice, and make Watson start from behind. The fourth-quarter magic has to run out somewhere, and the building where Cleveland hasn’t won since 2003 is the likeliest place.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast lands on Pittsburgh by four, essentially the line; the total sits a touch under it because both offenses are bottom-eight and the weather is no help to either.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The hottest young quarterback in the NFC South walks into his hometown against the division’s best defense — and a Bucs team still looking for its first home win.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Both teams arrive off their best day of the season. Tampa Bay ran for 258 yards and blew Carolina out 43-13 in Baker Mayfield’s return from a dislocated throwing thumb; Atlanta knocked San Francisco from the unbeaten ranks behind three Penix touchdown passes and four takeaways. The NFC South is a mess — Carolina leads at 3-3, Atlanta is a half-game back, the Bucs 1.5 — so this is the first real chance for either to claim it is the team to beat.

The Bucs are 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium, and the Falcons have won their last three trips to Tampa. Mayfield has torched Atlanta for 17 touchdowns and four picks in seven career games yet has never beaten them at home. Penix, a Tampa native, hasn’t thrown an interception since his third pass of the season. One streak ends Sunday. Bring an umbrella: thunderstorms are in the forecast, and a lightning delay is a real possibility.

3 · The Storylines

Michael Penix Jr., back from the knee. Penix missed the first two weeks while Cooper Rush struggled, then took over at Green Bay. In five games since returning from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season he has 1,157 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception, with back-to-back three-touchdown games. “You can’t do that by yourself,” he said of the weekly award. The Bucs’ pass defense is the best he has seen since Green Bay, and Tampa Bay’s Yaya Diaby, coming off three sacks, rushes from Jake Matthews’ side.

Baker Mayfield’s thumb, and how much he throws. Mayfield threw 11 passes at Carolina — the fewest in a Bucs win since the 1970s — wearing extra protection behind his right thumb. He was a full participant Wednesday. That script won’t work twice: Atlanta allows 88.9 rushing yards a game behind Gervon Dexter, Brandon Dorlus and Maason Smith. Mayfield will have to push the ball downfield against Jessie Bates, who has 18 interceptions over four-plus seasons, and he will have to do it with right tackle Luke Goedeke possibly out.

Bijan Robinson vs. Vita Vea’s interior. Robinson leads the NFL with 907 scrimmage yards at 5.4 a carry. Tampa Bay allows 77.3 rushing yards a game, second in the league, with A’Shawn Robinson next to Vea. Something gives. If Bijan is getting four yards on first down, Penix plays from play-action and Kyle Pitts — 11 catches, 166 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs last December — gets loose. “He’s torched us pretty good,” Todd Bowles said. If Bijan is stuffed, Atlanta’s offense becomes a young quarterback on third-and-7.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Tampa Bay’s list is long but mostly manageable. Right tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) did not practice and has been in and out for weeks; without him, the right side has to handle Atlanta’s edge rotation with a backup. Kenny Gainwell (hip), who ran for 88 yards last week, and linebacker Josiah Trotter (illness), the team’s leading tackler, also sat out. Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) was limited, a sign he is progressing. Antoine Winfield Jr. was a full go.

Atlanta’s concerns are in the middle of the defense. Linebacker Divine Deablo (forearm) and defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. (hamstring) did not practice, and Deablo missed the 49ers game. Brian Robinson, the backup back, was out again. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor (hamstring) was limited, and that matters against Diaby’s bull rush. Za’Darius Smith sat for rest.

Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The numbers say these offenses are worse than they have looked lately. Atlanta is 23rd in EPA per play for the season (−0.042) but positive over Weeks 4–7 (+0.048), which is the Penix effect: 30 points a game across those four. Tampa Bay is 28th (−0.084) but near neutral recently (−0.008), most of it with Jalon Daniels at quarterback while Mayfield healed. The defenses don’t match: Tampa Bay is third in EPA allowed (−0.111) and even better lately (−0.131), strong against both pass and run, while Atlanta is a mid-pack 14th and roughly average over the last month.

The schedule explains Tampa Bay’s 2-5 record better than anything. The Bucs have played the hardest slate in the league, lost to Green Bay by three and Pittsburgh in overtime, and still carry a simple rating near +5 — better than Atlanta’s +1.8 against the fifth-hardest schedule. Both teams are on normal rest. The series has been a coin flip with a road lean: Atlanta has won five of the last seven, including three straight in Tampa, and each of the last six meetings was decided by six points or fewer.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Atlanta has won three straight in Tampa, most recently 29-28 in 2025; Tampa Bay won 23-20 in Atlanta in last season’s opener.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Bijan Robinson on first down. Count Atlanta’s first-down runs in the first quarter and where they end. Kevin Stefanski’s offense is built to protect Penix: Bijan to the outside behind Jake Matthews, then play-action off it, with Pitts flaring into the space linebackers vacate. Tampa Bay’s answer is Vea and A’Shawn Robinson eating double teams so linebackers can fill — and with Trotter sick and Deablo hurt, backup linebackers on both sides may decide a lot of these plays.

Here is what it looks like when it goes Tampa Bay’s way: Bijan stopped for one or two, Penix in shotgun on second-and-9, Diaby or David Walker coming free against a limited Jawaan Taylor. When it goes Atlanta’s way, Penix is under center with his back to the defense, Bates is the one baiting Mayfield, and the Falcons are kicking field goals rather than punting. The call: the Bucs’ front wins enough first downs to make Penix uncomfortable for the first time in a month, and that tilts a close game.

Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20

Tampa Bay, narrowly. The Falcons have the momentum and the quarterback story, but the Bucs have the defense, and this matchup puts it against exactly what Atlanta wants to do. Mayfield won’t get away with 11 passes, and the rain helps nobody’s passing game, but a defense that has held up against the league’s toughest schedule should finally give Tampa its first home win. Expect it to come down to the final possession.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast agrees with Tampa Bay by about a field goal; the projected total sits slightly under the line because both offenses rank bottom-ten on the season and thunderstorms are forecast.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

Five days after trading two six-time captains, Indianapolis walks into the building where it keeps losing.

2 · Why This Game Matters

The Colts spent Tuesday dismantling the last decade. Quenton Nelson went to Seattle, DeForest Buckner went back to San Francisco, and by Wednesday Josh Downs had asked to follow them out. This is a 2-5 team on a three-game losing streak, a week removed from firing general manager Chris Ballard, and now it has to play a rested division leader in a stadium where Jacksonville has been ruthless.

Jacksonville is the reason to tune in. Trevor Lawrence is running one of the league’s most efficient passing games, Travis Hunter is coming off the best two-way game of his career — a touchdown catch and an end-zone interception in London — and Liam Coen’s team leads the AFC South by two and a half games. The Jaguars have won their last six regular-season games in Jacksonville by an average of roughly 38-11. The question isn’t whether Jacksonville is better. It’s whether a gutted Colts roster has one more ugly, grinding afternoon in it — and a forecast of thunderstorms and a steady east wind is built for ugly.

3 · The Storylines

Daniel Jones and an offense running out of help. Jones went 13 of 22 for 108 yards in Minnesota, took four sacks and threw his seventh interception on the final drive. He did it without Alec Pierce, now on injured reserve, and without Tyler Warren, who has missed two straight games. Now the line loses Nelson, with Dalton Tucker listed at left guard. Shane Steichen says he has “a ton of faith” in Jones and isn’t considering a change. The passing game averaged 4.9 yards per attempt last week, and it has no answer yet for defenses that bracket Downs.

Travis Hunter, both ways, finally. Coen spent September insisting Hunter would work primarily at cornerback. Then London happened: four catches for 59 yards and a touchdown, plus an interception of C.J. Stroud in the end zone, making Hunter the first NFL player since 2002 with a touchdown catch and an interception in the same game. “That’s who he is,” Coen said. “We have to keep getting him the ball.” Against a Colts receiving corps already missing Pierce, Hunter’s snaps at corner may matter more than his snaps at receiver.

Brian Thomas Jr. trying to flush London. The 2024 Pro Bowler has nine catches for 105 yards this season and four drops. Against Houston he dropped a pass on the opening drive, missed another late in the first half, and didn’t play a snap after halftime. Trade chatter followed him into the bye. “Everybody goes through adversity,” Thomas said. “You’ve just got to keep fighting through it.” Coen’s answer: “I fully anticipate he’s going to make plays for us this Sunday.” On a wet ball, his hands are the storyline.

Jonathan Taylor without his lead blocker. Taylor is tied for the league lead with eight rushing touchdowns and has 587 yards, and the run game is the one part of the Colts’ offense that works — he and Seth McGowan ran for 141 yards on 29 carries in Minnesota. Nelson had paved the way for Taylor since 2020. Teams have called about Taylor too. Steichen: “JT’s on our football team.” For now, Taylor is the Colts’ whole plan for Sunday.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The biggest absences aren’t on an injury report. Nelson was the Colts’ best blocker and Buckner (four sacks this season) their best interior rusher, which leaves Adetomiwa Adebawore, who also has four sacks, as the inside pass rush nearly by himself. The secondary is the real worry: Sauce Gardner (calf) was limited after missing Minnesota, Justin Walley (knee) didn’t practice, and Cam Taylor-Britt is on injured reserve — a thin group to throw at Lawrence. Tyler Warren (groin) was limited, and Pierce remains on IR.

Jacksonville’s cost is up front: tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season with a knee injury, so Walker Little starts at left tackle against an Indianapolis front that just lost its anchor. Jakobi Meyers (hamstring) was limited and starting safety Antonio Johnson (ankle) didn’t practice, but the Jaguars come off the bye mostly whole.

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Jacksonville’s offense is third in the league in EPA per play (+0.155) and its passing game (+0.263 per dropback) sits near the top of the league; the Colts’ pass defense has given up +0.082 per play. Indianapolis’s offense is 27th (−0.068), and its passing attack (−0.158) is among the worst in football. The one place the Colts function is the run (+0.057 per carry), and that runs straight into the Jaguars’ best unit: a run defense allowing −0.173 per carry. Jacksonville is also converting 47.9% of third downs (fourth) while allowing 36.2% (eighth).

The counterweight is form. The Colts’ defense has been far better over the last four weeks (−0.064 EPA per play) than it was in September — though Buckner was part of that. Jacksonville’s wins have mostly been close: 22-17 in Cincinnati, 19-17 over Philadelphia on Cam Little’s 57-yard field goal at the gun. The Jaguars are 2-0 in Jacksonville this year (their other two “home” games were in London) and come off a bye; the Colts are 1-3 away from Indianapolis. Jacksonville has won five of the last six meetings, including 36-19 and 23-17 last season, and has played the tougher schedule.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Jacksonville has won four of the last six, including 36-19 in Indianapolis and 23-17 at home last season.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Jonathan Taylor’s first-down carries against Jacksonville’s run defense. Indianapolis has one way to play this game, and Steichen showed it in Minnesota: run, shorten the afternoon, keep Jones out of obvious passing downs. The weather helps that plan. The opponent doesn’t — Jacksonville stops the run as well as anyone, and the Colts are trying it without Nelson at left guard.

Watch first-and-10. When Taylor or McGowan gets four or five yards, the Colts are playing the game they want: second-and-short, play-action, Jones throwing to open grass. When Taylor is stuffed at the line, it’s second-and-9, the Jaguars’ edge rushers — Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker — get to rush the passer, and Jones, who was sacked four times in Minnesota and has seven interceptions, is throwing into a secondary that includes Hunter. Count the Colts’ second-and-long snaps in the first half. If there are more than a handful, the game is over by the third quarter. The call: Jacksonville wins the line of scrimmage and the game.

Jaguars 24, Colts 17

Jacksonville wins. The Jaguars are rested, at home, and facing a team that just shipped out its best blocker and its best interior rusher. The Colts’ defense will keep it respectable for a half and the storms will keep the score down, but Indianapolis has no passing game to come from behind with, and Lawrence has too many ways — Hunter, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange — to beat a secondary missing bodies. It will be settled earlier than the final score suggests.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast has Jacksonville by 7, inside a 10-point line, with a total of 41 under 46.5: the trades hurt Indy, but the Jaguars mostly win close, and storms plus a 15 mph wind should cut scoring.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The winless Chargers drive to their own stadium as the road team, still looking for the offense they were promised.

2 · Why This Game Matters

This was supposed to be a Los Angeles showcase. The Chargers came into the year off consecutive 11-win seasons with Mike McDaniel hired to run the offense for Justin Herbert. Instead they are the league’s last winless team, scoring 15 points a game, and Herbert has thrown an interception in every game while being pressured on more dropbacks than any quarterback in football. Jim Harbaugh spent the bye saying 0-6 “does not give the privilege to rule out anything” — and then kept McDaniel as the play caller.

The Rams are 3-4 and short-handed — no Davante Adams for weeks, no Myles Garrett yet — but they just ran for a season-high 201 yards in Las Vegas, and Matthew Stafford became the franchise’s career leader in touchdown passes. It’s the first time the two SoFi tenants have met with the Chargers as the road team. The reason to watch: the Chargers’ first look at a slimmed-down offense after two weeks of self-scouting, against one of the league’s best defenses by efficiency. If the reset is real, you will see it here.

3 · The Storylines

Justin Herbert under siege. Herbert is completing 59.4% of his passes against a career mark of 66.1%, with five touchdowns, a league-worst eight interceptions and 21 sacks — nine in the last two games. He has been pressured on a league-high 99 dropbacks, at times behind a line with four rookies. “Too many this season it’s been at desperation time,” Harbaugh said. Joe Alt is back at right tackle off the bye, which helps. But the Chargers need Herbert to stop trying to win every snap himself.

Mike McDaniel keeps the call sheet. After a 22-6 loss in Kansas City dropped the offense to a league-worst 15.0 points per game, the Chargers spent the bye examining everything. They landed on continuity. “We’re very confident in Mike and his talent, his work ethic and his ability,” Harbaugh said. The change is volume: a trimmed playbook so players can carry it from the meeting room to the field. Expect fewer pre-snap gadgets and quicker throws. If that doesn’t move the ball against the Rams, the pressure on McDaniel only grows.

Stafford, minus a future Hall of Famer. Adams had hamstring surgery and is out six to 10 weeks. “You’re not going to one-for-one sub a guy that’s going to be wearing a gold jacket one day,” Stafford said. The answer in Las Vegas was Kyren Williams and Blake Corum: 201 rushing yards and a 60% rushing success rate, the Rams’ best of the season, plus two touchdown catches from tight end Davis Allen. The Chargers rank 25th against the run, allowing 123.8 yards a game, and Kenneth Walker III ran for 128 on them in Week 6.

Chris O’Leary’s defense, carrying everything. The Chargers’ defense has 10 takeaways, tied for third in the league at the bye, and has kept most of the losses within one score. Khalil Mack leads the team with three sacks; Tuli Tuipulotu has two sacks, an interception and two forced fumbles. Stafford noticed: Mack “still looks like he’s running around making plays.” They are doing it without Derwin James, who hasn’t played since Week 3 and may go to injured reserve after a setback.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

The Chargers’ offensive line is the injury story of their season: left tackle Rashawn Slater (ankle), center Tyler Biadasz (knee) and Trey Pipkins are on injured reserve, and left guard Kayode Awosika (fibula) didn’t practice Wednesday. Alt’s return at right tackle is the one piece of relief. Tight end David Njoku is on IR. Ladd McConkey was a full participant after a concussion and should play; Tre’ Harris (hamstring) was limited.

For the Rams, Adams (hamstring surgery) and Garrett (knee; his practice window wasn’t opened) remove their most dangerous receiver and pass rusher. Trent McDuffie (groin) practiced on a limited basis for the first time after missing two games. The one to watch is center Coleman Shelton (hip), who didn’t practice — a backup center against Mack and Tuipulotu is a real problem. Tight end Colby Parkinson (ribs) and long snapper Joe Cardona (ankle) also sat.

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Rams

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The Chargers’ offense is last in the league in EPA per play (−0.225) and has gotten worse, not better, over the last four weeks (−0.259), with a 35.9% success rate. They average 12.0 possessions a game — most in this matchup by a distance — and score 1.25 points on each, a picture of three-and-outs and giveaways. The Rams’ defense is fifth (−0.057) and strongest against the run (−0.128 per carry). On the other side, the Rams’ offense (+0.059, 10th) has a 48.8% success rate, while the Chargers’ defense (−0.036, 13th) has improved to −0.095 over the last four games.

Context cuts both ways. The Rams have played the 28th-ranked schedule and are 1-3 at SoFi, where home field here means little; the Chargers are 0-3 on the road and lost to Seattle by seven and Denver by six before the Kansas City blowout. The Chargers are coming off a bye; the Rams played in Las Vegas. Recent history is thin: the Rams won 35-23 in 2018, the Chargers 31-10 on New Year’s Day 2023.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Only two meetings since the Chargers moved: Rams 35-23 in 2018, Chargers 31-10 in 2022.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Can the Chargers stay out of second-and-long?. Every bad thing in the Chargers’ season starts the same way: a failed first down, then Herbert standing in a collapsing pocket on second-and-9, trying to make something happen. That’s where the sacks and the interceptions come from. The bye-week reset — less volume, simpler plays — exists to fix exactly that.

So watch first down. If Omarion Hampton gets four yards, or Herbert hits McConkey or Harris on a quick throw before the rush arrives, the Chargers are in manageable downs and the Rams have to respect play-action. If the first-down runs go nowhere, Byron Young and the Rams’ edge rushers get to pin their ears back against a left side built from backups, and Herbert starts holding the ball. Count the number of times he’s throwing on second-and-8 or worse in the first half. A handful, and the Chargers can hang around behind their defense. A pile of them, and the Rams’ run game — Williams and Corum against the league’s 25th-ranked run defense — closes it out. The call: the Chargers don’t solve first down, and the Rams win.

Rams 23, Chargers 17

The Rams win. The Chargers’ defense is good enough to keep this within reach into the fourth quarter, and the bye plus Joe Alt’s return will make the offense look less broken than it did in Kansas City. But less broken isn’t good. The Rams can run at the Chargers’ softest spot, Stafford doesn’t need Adams to move the chains against a secondary missing Derwin James, and Herbert will make one desperate throw under pressure that decides it.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast has the Rams by 6 against a 6.5-point line — near agreement — but a total of 40 well under 45.5, because the Chargers score 1.25 points per drive and face a top-five defense.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

First place in the AFC West goes to whoever wins, and the Chiefs arrive off the worst offensive night of Patrick Mahomes’ career.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Kansas City walked out of Seattle with three points, 11 first downs and no red-zone trips. Those 11 first downs were the fewest in Patrick Mahomes’ 153 starts, and he went 4-of-10 on third down. Andy Reid took the blame himself: “All 3 phases had an issue, starting with me.” The Chiefs are still 5-1 and still own the league’s second-best scoring defense. They also have something to fix in a hurry, with the trade deadline approaching.

Denver has won five of six since that Week 1 loss in Kansas City and is 3-0 at home. The Broncos’ defense has been the best in the league over the last month. The offense finally hit 30 at Arizona, with Bo Nix running 62 yards for a touchdown. Sean Payton told his team this game works toward goal one: win the division. A Denver win puts the Broncos in first place. A Kansas City win gives the Chiefs a game-and-a-half cushion and the tiebreaker in hand.

3 · The Storylines

Mahomes and the missing tackles. Against Seattle, Kansas City played without both starting tackles: Josh Simmons, now on injured reserve after a lost season, and right tackle Jaylon Moore, who was in concussion protocol. The passing game fell apart. Moore practiced fully Wednesday, and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson has held up at left tackle. Mahomes is also on the report with his knee, though he took every rep. Give him a clean pocket and this offense ranks fifth in EPA per play for the season. Without one, it looked like Seattle.

Bo Nix against his own standard. Nix had his best yardage day of the year at Arizona and still opened the week with “It starts with me.” He has watched the Week 1 film twice. “It definitely doesn’t leave me excited with how that game ended,” he said. Denver’s passing game still ranks in the bottom third. Courtland Sutton said there was “meat on the bone” even in a 30-point game. Against a defense allowing 17.2 points a game, Nix has to make throws he didn’t make in September.

Pat Surtain’s return. Denver’s All-Pro corner last played in Week 4. He practiced fully Wednesday after three limited days last week. His timing lines up with a thin Chiefs receiver room. Rice is limited with a hamstring and a knee, and Xavier Worthy dropped another ball in Seattle. If Surtain takes away one side of the field, Mahomes is left with Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 343 receiving yards, and whatever Kenneth Walker can create underneath.

Harrison Butker, on notice. Butker is 11-of-16 on field goals and 2-for-6 from 50-plus, and he missed from 58 and 45 in Seattle. Reid is sticking with him this week, but the Chiefs signed Justin Tucker to the practice squad on Wednesday. The thin air should help Butker’s distance. In a game between defenses this good, one missed kick in the fourth quarter could decide who leaves in first place.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Denver’s list worries more. Zach Allen leads the team with 4.5 sacks and pulled up with a hamstring at Arizona. He didn’t practice Wednesday, though he said, “I’ll be fine.” Jaylen Waddle aggravated a chest injury and also sat out. Without him, Nix loses the receiver who stretches the field opposite Sutton. Safety Talanoa Hufanga has missed two games with an ankle and hasn’t returned to practice. Garett Bolles was limited with a hip. If he can’t go, Kansas City’s edge rushers get a backup left tackle.

For Kansas City, the return of Moore at right tackle matters more than anything else on the report. L’Jarius Sneed missed Wednesday with a knee and personal matters, which thins a secondary that faces a Denver passing game finally taking shots. Rice is limited in his first practice since Week 4. Even a partial Rice gives Mahomes a three-level option he hasn’t had all month.

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Over the full season, Kansas City is the better team on both sides. The Chiefs rank fifth in offensive EPA per play and sixth on defense. Denver ranks 22nd and seventh. The Weeks 4–7 numbers tighten things. Kansas City’s offense has slipped to +0.042 per play, while Denver’s defense has played at -0.117, best in the league in that stretch. Denver’s offense hasn’t improved with it. It still sits near -0.03 per play with a 37.9% success rate, one of the worst in football. Kansas City’s schedule ranks 31st in difficulty and Denver’s 14th, so the Chiefs’ record has been built against weaker teams.

These two franchises have traded wins. Denver won both 2025 meetings, 22-19 and 20-13, to take the division. Kansas City answered 31-10 in Week 1 by running through missed tackles in the second half. Kenneth Walker has 701 rushing yards and six touchdowns and is the reason Kansas City’s rushing offense is fifth in the league, while Denver’s run defense has allowed 133.3 yards a game. Denver is 3-0 at home and Kansas City 2-1 on the road. Both teams had a full week, and neither travels far.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Kansas City won 31-10 at Arrowhead in Week 1; Denver won both meetings in 2025 and 38-0 at home in 2024.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Kenneth Walker on first and second down. Reid diagnosed the Seattle loss in one line: “You’ve got to keep yourself out of third-and-long situations.” The Chiefs went 3-of-11 on third down because they kept facing third-and-a-lot. Against a Denver pass rush built around Nik Bonitto, and Allen if he plays, third-and-8 is a losing down for any quarterback. That makes Walker’s first two carries of each series the place to look.

Watch where the Chiefs face second down. If Walker is turning first-and-10 into second-and-4, the play-action game reopens. Kelce works the seams, and Mahomes gets the rhythm throws Seattle took away. If Denver’s linebackers, led by AFC Defensive Player of the Week Alex Singleton, are filling gaps and the Chiefs face second-and-9, it turns into the Seattle game again. Watch whether Denver tackles Walker at first contact. It didn’t in September, when Kansas City pulled away in the second half. The call: Walker gets enough to keep Kansas City ahead of the chains, and that decides the game.

Chiefs 23, Broncos 20

Kansas City wins a tight, physical game. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep Nix in it until the end, but his offense hasn’t shown it can put together four-minute drives against a defense this good. With Moore back at right tackle, the Chiefs’ pocket holds, Walker wears down a Broncos front that may be missing Allen, and Kansas City leaves Denver with first place.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast leans slightly more to Kansas City than the 1.5-point line because Moore and Rice return, and sits above the 40.5 total.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The NFL’s hottest passing offense meets one of its worst pass defenses, probably in a South Florida thunderstorm.

2 · Why This Game Matters

New England is 3-0 at home, 1-3 on the road, and coming off a 30-24 Thursday-night loss in Chicago. Even so, Maye threw for 321 yards against the Bears and has 12 touchdown passes of 30-plus yards over the last two seasons, the most in the NFL. The Patriots’ passing offense has been elite for a month. The problem is the ball. New England has 14 giveaways, second-most in the league, and is minus-7 in turnover differential. It hasn’t won the turnover battle in a single game.

Miami beat the Jets to avoid 0-7 and celebrated like it. Malik Willis played the best game of his short run as a starter, and the run game has been physical since September. But Hafley’s defense ranks 30th in EPA per play. Against the pass, opponents are gaining +0.315 per dropback. That’s the worst figure in the league, and the Patriots are about to test it.

3 · The Storylines

Drake Maye and the deep ball. Maye threw two touchdowns of 30-plus yards in Chicago: 48 to Rhamondre Stevenson and 30 to rookie tight end Eli Raridon. He did the same against Las Vegas. One more such game ties a team record held by Steve Grogan and Tom Brady. Miami’s secondary may be without JuJu Brents, who is in concussion protocol, so Jason Marshall Jr. moves into the starting lineup. The only thing slowing Maye has been his eight interceptions.

Malik Willis, learning on the job. Hafley called the Jets game Willis’ best: 14-of-21 for 208 yards, two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, and a bootleg score to close the half. “He was decisive today,” Hafley said, comparing it to “a sixth game as basically a rookie starter.” Willis has been on the injury report with a toe, then a thumb, and now a groin. He practiced fully Wednesday. Ball security cost him against Cincinnati, and New England’s defense is desperate for takeaways.

Chop Robinson against two backup guards. Robinson has a 23.4% pressure rate, the best in the league among players with at least 100 pass rushes. New England’s interior line is held together with tape. With Alijah Vera-Tucker on injured reserve and Ben Brown limited, Matt Pryor and Walter Rouse, the fifth and sixth guards on the depth chart, worked with the starters again Wednesday. Right tackle Morgan Moses is limited with a foot. If Robinson and Zach Sieler win early, Maye’s deep shots turn into hurried throws.

Kevin Byard’s missing interceptions. Byard led the NFL with seven interceptions last season and is still looking for his first in 2026. The whole Patriots defense has seven takeaways against a stated goal of three a game. “We just have to keep working at it,” Byard said. A Miami offense led by a quarterback with four interceptions in six games is the most obvious chance New England will get.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

New England is getting healthier at the right position. Carlton Davis III, Channing Canada and Karon Prunty each missed four games and all practiced fully Wednesday, which puts a full cornerback group alongside Christian Gonzalez. A.J. Brown was limited with ankle and knee issues. Maye has others to throw to, with Hunter Henry leading the team in receiving yards, but Brown is the one Miami would have to double. The bigger worry is up front: Moses limited, Brown limited, Vera-Tucker on IR.

Miami’s two concussions are both starters. Rookie guard Kadyn Proctor helped close out the Jets on the ground. If he can’t go, Jarrett Kingston plays left guard against Christian Barmore and Milton Williams. Brents’ absence would force a patchwork nickel. Safeties Michael Taaffe and Dante Trader Jr. were both limited, and that is the worst news possible for a defense this exposed downfield.

New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The efficiency gap is large and points in one direction. New England’s offense has played at +0.200 EPA per play over Weeks 4–7, and its passing game is +0.211 for the season. Miami’s defense allows +0.315 per dropback and a 49.3% success rate, both near the bottom of the league. The other matchup is closer than Miami’s 1-5 suggests. The Dolphins’ offense has improved to +0.048 over the last four weeks, and Miami has averaged 153.6 rushing yards a game since Week 3. New England’s defense, 19th overall, has been leaky lately at +0.063.

Schedule context helps Miami’s record a little and New England’s a lot. The Dolphins’ opponents rank second in difficulty, the Patriots’ fourth. The Patriots swept Miami last season, 33-27 here and 38-10 in Foxborough, and are going for three straight wins in the series. Still, they are 18-43 all-time in Miami and have lost three of four road games this year. They have extra rest after playing Thursday. Miami is 0-2 at home, and its lone win came on the road. The weather may decide how lopsided this gets, because sustained rain favors the team that wants to run.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. New England won both meetings in 2025, 33-27 in Miami and 38-10 in Foxborough.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Patriots’ backup guards against Miami’s interior rush on early downs. Miami can’t stay with New England’s receivers, so it has to get to Maye before the ball travels. Robinson wins off the edge, but the plan should go right up the middle at Pryor and Rouse. Those are the two guards New England never planned to start. Watch the first few dropbacks. If Maye can step up and plant, his deep shots get thrown on time to receivers running past a secondary missing Brents.

If the pocket gets pushed into his lap, the throws come out early and off his back foot. That is how a defense with seven takeaways all season suddenly gets two. New England’s answer is Stevenson, who caught 93 yards’ worth of passes in Chicago: screens and checkdowns that punish the blitz. Count how often the Patriots throw to the back in the first quarter. The call: Maye gets enough time and Miami’s secondary can’t keep up.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 17

New England wins by more than two scores. The Patriots will give the ball away once or twice, because they always do, but Miami can’t stop Maye throwing deep and can’t keep pace through the air. The Dolphins’ running game and the storms will keep it closer than the talent gap at halftime. After that, New England’s passing game takes over.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast is more bullish on New England than the 7-point line because of Miami’s pass defense, and lands half a point over the 43.5 total even after a rain discount.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The Eagles arrive without Jalen Hurts for the season and on a five-game slide; Washington arrives rested, with Jayden Daniels and very little else going right.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Two Januaries ago these two franchises met in the NFC Championship Game. Sunday night they meet at a combined 3-9-1, and one of them is going to leave Landover with its season functionally over. Philadelphia has lost five straight for the first time since 2016, and the reason the whole picture changed is medical: Jalen Hurts has deep vein thrombosis and clots in both lungs, sits on injured reserve and is not expected back this year. The quarterback now is Tanner McKee, a 6-foot-6 former sixth-round pick with two losses as this year’s starter.

Washington is not much healthier. Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon in San Francisco, Laremy Tunsil has been on IR since camp, and the defense ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency. But the Commanders have had 13 days to get ready, Daniels practiced fully with his braced left elbow, and they get an Eagles team on six days’ rest after being run over by Dallas on Monday night. This game will be ugly in places. It will also be decisive.

3 · The Storylines

Tanner McKee, on a short leash. McKee has done enough to keep the job and not enough to quiet anyone: 26 of 45 for 215 yards against Carolina, 23 of 35 for 211 and a fourth-quarter interception against Dallas. His one previous start against Washington, last year’s Week 18 finale, was a 24-17 loss. Rookie Makai Lemon has become his most reliable target — seven catches and a touchdown Monday — because DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks did not practice Wednesday. McKee is a pocket passer who needs time; he will not get much of it.

Vic Fangio’s defense and the blame game. Dallas put up 416 yards, and Javonte Williams ran for 155 of them. Fangio said afterward, “I didn’t have them ready.” Jonathan Greenard pushed back and put it on the players. Jalen Carter called his own season “trash.” That is a defense arguing with itself in public, and it now faces a Washington offense that has had two weeks to find the soft spots.

Jayden Daniels without his No. 1. Daniels dislocated his left elbow at Dallas in Week 2 — the second time in a year — and came back in early October wearing a brace. Now he has lost Terry McLaurin for the season, and Stefon Diggs (hand/hamstring) and Treylon Burks (foot) were on Wednesday’s report. Washington’s backfield is thinner too, with Rachaad White carrying the load. Daniels has to be the offense, and with an ordinary supporting cast that is a heavy job.

Two coaches under fire. Inquirer columnists are openly asking whether this is the beginning of the end for Nick Sirianni, and Nick Foles has publicly called it a culture problem. Dan Quinn went into the bye at 1-4-1, saying “sometimes taking a step back can be exactly what you need,” and came out of it saying, “We know the plan. Now, we’ve got to go do it.” One of them will have a very long week after this.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Hurts is the absence that changes everything; the Eagles’ offense was already 30th in efficiency, and it has been worse since McKee took over. What makes it worse is everyone around McKee: Saquon Barkley (hamstring/back) did not practice after aggravating the injury Monday, DeVonta Smith (hamstring) has not played in weeks, Wicks (ankle) and returner Britain Covey (knee) also sat, and Lane Johnson retired in early October. If Barkley cannot go, Philadelphia has no reliable way to stay ahead of the chains.

Washington’s losses hit the edges of the offense. McLaurin is gone, Tunsil’s injury moved Brandon Coleman to left tackle — four sacks allowed — and Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR. On defense, Javon Kinlaw (knee) is doubtful and Jer’Zhan Newton is listed on IR, which thins the interior. That matters against a Philadelphia team whose only steady weapon left might be a rookie wideout.

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders

Wednesday practice participation from the official team reports; game designations are published Friday.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

Both units on the field when Philadelphia has the ball are bad, and the Eagles’ side is worse. The offense ranks 30th in EPA per play with a 36.8% success rate, and it has slid further over the last four weeks. Washington’s defense is 25th and allows a 47.6% success rate, so it is not built to punish anyone either — but it has had two weeks to scheme against a backup quarterback missing his top two weapons. Going the other way, Washington’s passing game has been productive when Daniels plays, and Fangio’s defense has been 28th in EPA per play and worse over the last month.

The form lines say the same thing. Philadelphia’s four most recent games: losses to the Rams, Jaguars, Panthers and Cowboys, with the last two at home by 11 and 17. Washington has not won since beating Seattle 33-31 in Week 3, but its recent losses were by six to San Francisco and a tie with the Giants. The rivalry has swung recently — Philadelphia won the Week 1 rematch 24-22 — but last year’s Week 18 meeting, the one McKee started, went to Washington 24-17. Both teams faced middle-of-the-pack schedules, so neither record is hiding much. The rest gap is real: 13 days against six.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Philadelphia won 24-22 in Week 1; the teams split in 2025, and the Eagles won the 2024 NFC title game 55-23.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Washington’s blitz vs. Tanner McKee. Washington blitzes more than anyone except Minnesota, and it has almost nothing to show for it: tied for 14th in pressures and tied for 22nd in sacks. Dan Quinn spent the bye saying he wants the rush and coverage “really being in sync.” Sunday he gets the best possible matchup for it — a 6-foot-6 pocket quarterback behind a line that lost Lane Johnson, throwing to a rookie and whoever else is healthy.

Watch the first few third downs. If Washington sends a sixth rusher and McKee holds the ball, looking for Smith or Wicks who are not there, it ends in sacks, throwaways and Eagles punts. If McKee gets the ball out fast — Makai Lemon on the slant, Dallas Goedert up the seam — the blitz leaves Washington’s secondary exposed, and that is how Philadelphia keeps it close. Here is the call: Washington’s pressure finally gets home, McKee takes the hits, and the Eagles’ offense goes three-and-out too often to keep pace.

Commanders 23, Eagles 17

Washington wins and sends Philadelphia to a sixth straight loss. It will not be pretty: the Commanders’ defense gives up chunks and their offense stalls without McLaurin. But rest, a healthy Daniels and an Eagles roster with no Hurts, no sure Barkley and no Smith add up to an offense that cannot score enough. Daniels makes the two or three plays McKee cannot, and the Eagles’ season will be in real danger by Monday.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast (Washington by 6, total 40) sits on the current line. The move from Philadelphia −2.5 at the May open to Washington −6 follows Jalen Hurts’ season-ending blood clots and the Barkley and Smith absences, and the total’s drop from 46.5 to 40.5 is what a backup-quarterback offense looks like.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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1 · The Setup

The defending champions’ suffocating defense against a quarterback who has thrown for 300 in back-to-back weeks since coming off the injury list.

2 · Why This Game Matters

Seattle just did something nobody had done to Patrick Mahomes: kept the Chiefs out of the red zone for an entire start, holding them to 213 yards and three points. That is the defending champion’s identity now — second in the league in EPA allowed per play, a 36.7% success rate against, and a home crowd that turns third-and-7 into a false start. The Seahawks are 4-3 because the offense around Sam Darnold has been fragile, not because anyone has figured out the defense.

Chicago arrives 5-2 and rested, 11 days removed from beating New England on a Thursday night, and with its quarterback looking like the player the Bears drafted. Caleb Williams missed time with a right hamstring injury and has thrown for 300 yards in each of the two games since. Ben Johnson’s offense has playmakers everywhere — Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, D’Andre Swift — and on Monday it meets a defense that makes everyone look ordinary. One of those two things has to give.

3 · The Storylines

Caleb Williams, back and dealing. Williams hurt his right hamstring scrambling near the goal line against Minnesota on Sept. 20, and Tyson Bagent started in his place, a stretch that included a 31-7 loss at Green Bay. Since he returned: a win in Atlanta and 22 of 33 for 308 yards and two touchdowns against New England, the first Bears quarterback with consecutive 300-yard games since 2018. “These nights are awesome,” he said. Lumen Field on a Monday is a different kind of night.

Quenton Nelson’s first week. Seattle traded a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth for the eight-time Pro Bowl guard on Tuesday, waived Christian Haynes to make room, and could put him in the lineup six days later. Nelson had allowed no sacks in 275 pass-blocking snaps for Indianapolis. He joins a line that gave up five sacks in the overtime loss at Denver and a run game that has been rebuilt on the fly since Kenneth Walker III left in free agency.

Sam Darnold’s other half. Darnold has been two quarterbacks. Against Kansas City he went 20 of 28 for 257 yards and moved the chains on two third-and-longs with his legs. At Denver he threw two interceptions, the second in overtime to set up the losing field goal. He has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the league with eight receiving touchdowns and has 867 yards, makes the good version possible.

Montez Sweat is back. Chicago’s pass rush lost Sweat to a two-game PED suspension and Dayo Odeyingbo to a quad injury in the same week in mid-October. Sweat is reinstated and has two sacks in five starts; Daniel Hardy has 1.5 sacks and four quarterback hits over the last two games. Against a Seattle line still sorting itself out, Chicago’s edge rushers are its best chance to make this a low-scoring game on its terms.

4 · Who’s Missing and Why It Matters

Chicago’s losses are pass-catcher depth and the back end. Cole Kmet is out for the season after hurting his knee against New England, which leaves Sam Roush as the second tight end behind Loveland. Safety Coby Bryant — who left Seattle in free agency — is still on IR after August knee surgery, and Anthony Johnson Jr. is listed out, leaving Dillon Thieneman and Cam Lewis to handle Smith-Njigba deep. Corner Malik Muhammad left the Patriots game with a toe injury.

Seattle’s list is mostly about returns. Zach Charbonnet is off the PUP list but was inactive against Kansas City, and Jadarian Price has not played since Week 3, so Emanuel Wilson — 24 carries for 100 yards last week — is the back. Linebackers Drake Thomas, Chazz Surratt and Connor O’Toole carried designations into this week. The official Week 8 reports do not start until Thursday.

Chicago Bears

Seattle Seahawks

Monday game: the first official practice report is due Thursday; statuses shown are the latest team and ESPN listings.

5 · How These Teams Match Up

The defenses separate these teams. Seattle is second in EPA allowed per play and stronger against the run than the pass; Chicago’s defense is league-average at 15th. The offenses are the other way around: Chicago is 12th in EPA per play with a 46.7% success rate and has been better since Williams returned, while Seattle is 21st and has the league’s third-worst rushing EPA. Seattle had three red-zone trips against Kansas City and scored six points on them, which is the problem in miniature.

Form favors both. Seattle has won two of its last four — beating the Chargers and Chiefs, losing narrowly to San Francisco and Denver — and is 3-1 at home. Chicago has won three of four — the Jets and Patriots at home, Atlanta on the road — and is 2-1 away. Seattle’s results came against the 27th-hardest schedule so far; Chicago’s against the 10th, which makes the Bears’ 5-2 the sturdier record. The last meeting was a 6-3 Seattle win at Soldier Field in 2024. The Bears also have three extra days of rest.

Defense EPA and success rate: lower is better. EPA and success rate computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7, no garbage-time filter; league rank in brackets (1 = best). SRS computed from all 107 results so far (Pro Football Reference not used). ATS from covers.com.

Scoring profile (points per game; bar scale 0–40)

Efficiency (success rate, %; bar scale 0–60)

Form (final margin, last four games, points; bar scale ±35, centre line = 0)

Head to head. Seattle won 6-3 in Chicago in Week 17 of 2024; Chicago won 25-24 in Seattle in 2021.

6 · The Thing To Watch

Chicago on third down at Lumen Field. Kansas City converted 3 of 11 third downs in Seattle last week, and Mahomes never reached the red zone. That is how this defense wins: it plays first and second down straight, forces third-and-long, and then disguises pressure while the crowd makes the snap count useless. Nick Emmanwori’s pressure on Mahomes produced Ty Okada’s interception.

Chicago’s answer is Johnson’s ability to stay out of those downs, and Williams’ ability to escape them. Watch the first two Bears possessions. If Swift and the play-action game produce second-and-4s, Williams gets Burden in space on catch-and-run throws, where he did his damage against New England. If Seattle wins early downs and Chicago faces third-and-8 over and over, Williams starts holding the ball and improvising — sometimes brilliantly, often into sacks against this front. Here is the call: Seattle wins more of those third downs than it loses, and that decides a close game.

Seahawks 23, Bears 20

Seattle wins a tight, physical game. Chicago has the better offense and the better record, and Williams will make a few plays that send the ManningCast into hysterics. But at home, the Seahawks’ defense controls the down-and-distance, Smith-Njigba wins against a thinned Chicago safety group, and Darnold — with Nelson possibly in front of him — gets the version from last week rather than the one from Denver. It comes down to a fourth-quarter field goal.

7 · The Numbers

Odds as of 4:11 AM PT Thursday, Oct 29 · ScoresAndOdds

Forecast agrees with the side (SEA by ~3) and sits below the 46.5 total: two top-15 defenses, Seattle’s red-zone struggles and a run-first home team point to the low 40s.

Win probability (% chance to win outright)

Spread movement (favourite’s line, points; bar scale 0–14; colour = favourite)

8 · The Underdog’s Case

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Run notes

Lessons applied: L-001, L-002, L-003, L-004, L-005, L-006, L-007, L-008, L-009, L-010, L-011, L-012; totals calibration (+1.5 points on every predicted total) applied; outright-underdog adjustment (−1.5 toward the market) in effect but not triggered — no forecast picks an underdog outright.

Slate check (L-001). 14 games on ESPN’s Week 8 scoreboard feed, cross-checked against the nflverse schedule, ScoresAndOdds and VegasInsider: 28 teams play, plus four on bye (NO, NYG, SF, HOU) = 32. No games Friday, Saturday, Tuesday or Wednesday; Week 9 opens Thursday Nov 5. 14 reports produced.

Kickoff times (L-003). Feed times (UTC) converted to PT and confirmed on nfl.com or the home or visiting team’s site for every game. Daylight saving ends at 2 AM Sunday; Eastern-to-Pacific remains three hours. One team page (bengals.com how-to-watch) printed Nov 2 for Titans–Bengals; the Titans’ site, nfl.com and ESPN say Nov 1.

Primetime broadcasts (L-002). TNF: Prime Video, with local over-the-air simulcasts on NBC26 Green Bay and FOX6 Milwaukee, booth per packers.com and Awful Announcing (Amazon’s own announcer page not found). SNF: NBC and Peacock. MNF: ESPN only — abc.com lists no ABC simulcast for Week 8 — with the ManningCast on ESPN2 per ESPN Press Room’s season release; a game-specific ESPN release was not reached (403) and no rules analyst was found.

Odds (L-005, L-006, L-007). All lines from ScoresAndOdds in one pass at 4:11 AM PT. Every opener matched to VegasInsider’s open column; VegasInsider shows no date, so dates come from the first entries in the ScoresAndOdds movement logs (May 15 UTC, the evening of May 14 Pacific — schedule-release look-ahead numbers). No book was 1.5+ points off the market on any spread. Over/under consensus withheld. ATS records from covers.com team pages (L-009); no pushes recorded for any of the 28 teams.

Results and ratings (L-004, L-010). Prior results from the nflverse games feed (107 games); all 28 playing teams’ records match ESPN’s scoreboard feed and the Covers game logs. SRS computed from the feed, not sourced from Pro Football Reference. EPA, success rate and points per drive computed from nflverse play-by-play, Weeks 1–7.

Two-scenario margins (L-008). Panthers–Packers: forecast assumes Bryce Young (knee, full practice); with Kenny Pickett, Packers by 10. Ravens–Bills: forecast assumes Lamar Jackson (ankle, first full practice since Oct 4); with Tyler Huntley, Bills by 8.5. Falcons–Buccaneers: forecast assumes Baker Mayfield (right thumb, full); with Jalon Daniels, Falcons by 0.5. Chiefs–Broncos: forecast assumes Patrick Mahomes (knee, full); with Justin Fields, Broncos by 4.5. Patriots–Dolphins: Drake Maye (shoulder) and Malik Willis (groin) both full; with Tommy DeVito, Patriots by 3; with Kyle McCord, Patriots by 12.5. Eagles–Commanders: forecast assumes Jayden Daniels (left elbow, brace, full); with Marcus Mariota, Commanders by 2.5.

Personnel (L-011). Starting quarterbacks, head coaches and kickers checked on the teams’ own sites on Oct 28–29. Exceptions: Minnesota and Detroit kickers from ESPN depth charts only; the Chiefs’ injury report read through Arrowhead Pride’s copy; the Dolphins’ report from the joint report on patriots.com. Non-Week-1 starting quarterbacks this week (for the recap’s category): Atlanta (Michael Penix Jr.) and Philadelphia (Tanner McKee).

Second opinion (L-012). ESPN FPI agrees with our winner in 13 of 14 games. The exception is Raiders–Jets: FPI has Las Vegas at 52.0%; our forecast takes the Jets, who are also the betting favourite, so this is not an outright-underdog pick.

Calibration. Totals: +1.5 applied to every raw total; 11 of 14 published totals still sit under the market number (over: Raiders–Jets, Chiefs–Broncos, Patriots–Dolphins). Margins: every forecast picks the betting favourite; there is no outright underdog call this week. The largest gaps from the line are Jacksonville (forecast 7 vs. 10) and New England (10 vs. 7).

Data gaps. Not yet published: Friday game designations for every Sunday and Monday game; the first Monday-night practice report (due Thursday). Estimated practice reports: Dallas (no practice Wednesday), Indianapolis and Philadelphia (walkthroughs). Roof: AT&T Stadium undetermined. Weather: thunderstorms forecast in Tampa, Jacksonville (east wind 15 mph) and Miami, with lightning delays possible. Advanced stats: Pro Football Reference not used; DVOA not gathered; Next Gen Stats only secondhand (team sites, MLive). Booths: 506sports returned 403 all week, so booths come from the Awful Announcing grid and team sites. Beat outlets not reached or paywalled: Star Tribune, Pride of Detroit, Buffalo News (summaries only), Tennessean, Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincy Jungle, Arizona Sports, Dallas Morning News, Review-Journal, NJ.com, cleveland.com (roundups only), Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Pewter Report, IndyStar, Florida Times-Union, Los Angeles Times, Kansas City Star, Denver Post, Boston Globe, Boston Herald, Miami Herald, Washington Times, Seattle Times, Field Gulls, Charlotte Observer, Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Source conflicts. Bryce Young: knee on both team reports, ankle on one aggregator — team report used. Kerby Joseph: Out on ESPN’s feed, limited on the Lions’ report — team report used. Minnesota blitz rate: 69.9% (ESPN) vs 71.4% (Next Gen Stats) — printed as about 70%. Bills safeties: the Ravens’ site reported two suspensions; ESPN and the Buffalo News say Sam Franklin Jr.’s was reduced to a fine, so only C.J. Gardner-Johnson is out. Breece Hall: three or four missed games depending on source — four used. Jacksonville’s 3-1 home record includes London games; the Jaguars are 2-0 in Jacksonville. Washington’s depth chart still lists Jacory Croskey-Merritt first though he is reported on injured reserve. ESPN’s “questionable” tags before Friday are not official designations; practice participation from the team reports is used throughout.

Sensitivity. Vikings–Lions is the most fragile forecast on the slate: it rests on Detroit beating the blitz, and both Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Wednesday’s practice. If both are ruled out Friday, the forecast should be read as a coin flip.

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