NFL 2026 · Week 8 in review · Thursday Oct 29 – Monday Nov 2
| Published Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026 14 games, Thursday to Monday New Orleans, the Giants, San Francisco and Houston on bye Our picks: 10-4 · the favorites: 10-4 | Games in this recap 14 of 14 played |
The Week in One Line
A 10-4 week that added nothing: we picked the betting favorite in all fourteen games, so our record is the favorites’ record by construction. All four favorites that lost — Dallas, the Jets, Kansas City and Seattle — were our picks too. Every right answer this week belongs to the market.
The margins were worse than the record. We missed the final margin by 11.3 points a game, more than our season average, and the misses ran one way: in ten of fourteen games the favorite won by more than we said or lost outright, and five favorites won by 15 or more. Over the season we remain seven games behind simply taking the favorites, 71-50 against 78-43.
The Scorecard
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite (games won out of 14, Week 8)
Picks against the betting favorite (games won, Week 8 and season)
| Measure | Week 8 | Season (121 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Winners picked | 10-4 | 71-50 |
| Taking every favorite | 10-4 | 78-43 |
| Average miss on the final margin | 11.3 pts | 10.1 pts |
| Average miss on total points | 10.9 pts | 10.9 pts |
| Against the spread | 4-5 (5 no pick) | 49-58 |
| Over/under lean | 9-5 | 61-59 |
Five games carried a printed cover chance of exactly 50%, so they had no lean against the spread; of the nine that did, we went 4-5. Our four wrong ATS leans were all on the side of the underdog or the cheaper number — Indianapolis +10, the Chargers +6.5 — or on a favorite that lost, and Jacksonville covered a 10-point spread by 25.
The over/under went better, 9-5, mostly because we leaned under in eleven games and the week was low-scoring outside Cincinnati. Our total-points forecasts ran 2.6 points low on average, but that hides a 79-point overtime game in Cincinnati we had at 44, and a 16-0 game in Tampa we had at 43.
Game by Game
Every game, in the order it was played: how it was won, who won it, and what we had called before kickoff.
At a glance
| Game | Final | We said | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Packers | CAR 19, GB 27 | GB 24-20 | Right |
| Ravens at Bills | BAL 10, BUF 36 | BUF 28-24 | Right |
| Titans at Bengals | TEN 36, CIN 43 | CIN 27-17 | Right |
| Cardinals at Cowboys | ARI 33, DAL 30 | DAL 30-23 | Wrong |
| Vikings at Lions | MIN 15, DET 19 | DET 23-20 | Right |
| Raiders at Jets | LV 38, NYJ 33 | NYJ 26-23 | Wrong |
| Browns at Steelers | CLE 6, PIT 27 | PIT 21-17 | Right |
| Falcons at Buccaneers | ATL 0, TB 16 | TB 23-20 | Right |
| Colts at Jaguars | IND 7, JAX 42 | JAX 24-17 | Right |
| Chargers at Rams | LAC 9, LAR 24 | LAR 23-17 | Right |
| Chiefs at Broncos | KC 24, DEN 28 | KC 23-20 | Wrong |
| Patriots at Dolphins | NE 24, MIA 19 | NE 27-17 | Right |
| Eagles at Commanders | PHI 10, WAS 27 | WAS 23-17 | Right |
| Bears at Seahawks | CHI 34, SEA 17 | SEA 23-20 | Wrong |
How far off our margin was (points between our predicted margin and the real one, 0–35 scale; blue = right winner, orange = wrong winner)
Game 1 of 14 · Thursday · Lambeau Field
Panthers 19 at Packers 27
Green Bay won it in the first 40 minutes and then stopped scoring. Jordan Love completed 30 of 41 for 288 yards and three touchdowns — to Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden and Josh Jacobs — and the Packers led 27-10 midway through the third quarter. Christian Watson caught eight for 113, including a 53-yarder that sent him to hospital with a chest injury; he came back.
The defense did the rest: six sacks of Bryce Young, 5 of 18 on third down for Carolina, and no opponent has scored more than 20 on Green Bay in five weeks. The Packers turned it over three times and still never trailed after the first quarter. Young’s fourth-down touchdown to Jalen Coker with 5:37 left made it 27-19, and the two-point try failed.
Who decided it
Jordan Love, GB — 30 of 41, 288 yards, 3 TD
Green Bay’s pass rush — 6 sacks of Bryce Young
Christian Watson, GB — 8 catches, 113 yards
Our call: Packers 24-20, 62% to win. Right. Won by 8; a 4-point miss. The Thing To Watch said Green Bay would sack Young at least three times. It sacked him six. Landed.
Game 2 of 14 · Sunday · Highmark Stadium
Ravens 10 at Bills 36
The game we billed as the best quarterback matchup of the week lasted one snap. Lamar Jackson jammed his right thumb on Greg Rousseau’s arm on Baltimore’s first play; he needs surgery and goes on injured reserve, possibly for the season. Tyler Huntley left in the second quarter with a toe injury, and emergency third-stringer Joe Fagnano finished 10 of 21 for 91 yards.
Buffalo was sloppy before halftime — ten penalties for 87 yards on the day — and led only 16-7. Then Josh Allen ran three touchdown drives in the second half, finishing 21 of 34 for 289 yards with touchdown passes to DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid. Baltimore gained 144 yards.
Who decided it
Josh Allen, BUF — 289 passing yards, 2 TD passing, 1 rushing
Tyler Bass, BUF — three field goals, including 56 and 51
Greg Rousseau, BUF — the hit that ended Jackson’s day
Our call: Bills 28-24, 62% to win. Right. Won by 26; a 22-point miss. The call was about Jackson moving outside the pocket on a taped ankle. He took one snap. Unresolvable — the premise did not survive the first play.
Game 3 of 14 · Sunday · Paycor Stadium
Titans 36 at Bengals 43
The game of the week, and the one we had as a dull ten-point win. Tennessee led 13-0 after a quarter on Tony Pollard’s 40-yard run, and led 28-23 and 36-29 in the fourth. Cam Ward was excellent: 26 of 40, 304 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a two-point pass to Gunnar Helm that put Tennessee up seven with 3:46 left.
Joe Burrow answered with the kind of day nobody has had since 1951: 462 yards, five touchdown passes, three interceptions, a game-tying 18-yarder to Tee Higgins with 1:17 to go, and a 9-yard scramble untouched in overtime. Higgins had 155 yards and two scores; Ja’Marr Chase 141. Tennessee did it without Jeffery Simmons, traded to Chicago on Thursday.
Who decided it
Joe Burrow, CIN — 462 yards, 5 TD passes, the overtime touchdown run
Tee Higgins, CIN — 10 catches, 155 yards, 2 TD
Cam Ward, TEN — 304 yards, 2 TD, no interceptions
Our call: Bengals 27-17, 77% to win. Right. Won by 7; a 3-point miss. We said Tennessee would fade in the second quarter, as it had all season. It scored nothing in the second quarter and was outscored 14-0. Landed — though the fourth quarter then went 15-13 Tennessee.
Game 4 of 14 · Sunday · AT&T Stadium
Cardinals 33 at Cowboys 30
Dallas led 17-3 in the third quarter and 24-10 early in the fourth and lost in overtime. Arizona benched Jacoby Brissett (10 of 23, 119 yards, an interception) for Gardner Minshew, and Tyler Allgeier broke a 63-yard touchdown run to wake the offense up. Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns, the last a 13-yarder to Michael Wilson with six seconds left.
Chad Ryland missed the extra point that would have won it in regulation, then kicked a 42-yard field goal in overtime. Arizona has now won five straight against Dallas and is 5-0 at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys’ offense managed 261 yards, and two of their scores came from a fumble-return touchdown and Brandon Aubrey’s leg.
Who decided it
Gardner Minshew, ARI — 17 of 23, 188 yards, 3 TD off the bench
Tyler Allgeier, ARI — 147 rushing yards, including a 63-yard TD
Chad Ryland, ARI — the overtime winner, after the missed PAT
Our call: Cowboys 30-23, 70% to win. Wrong. Lost by 3; a 10-point miss. We said Arizona would settle for field goals and Dallas would score touchdowns. It ran the other way: Arizona turned three red-zone trips into touchdowns, Dallas kicked three field goals. Missed.
Game 5 of 14 · Sunday · Ford Field
Vikings 15 at Lions 19
Minnesota is unbeaten no more. The league’s stingiest run defense gave up 230 rushing yards, 164 of them after halftime: Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 and a 30-yard touchdown. Minnesota led 15-12 on a T.J. Hockenson touchdown and a two-point pass with 8:44 left, then Jared Goff hit Jameson Williams from seven yards with 4:35 to go.
Kevin O’Connell punted on fourth-and-5 from his own 33 and never got the ball back in a position to win. The win was muted: All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell was carted off on a backboard and taken to hospital with a neck injury; the Lions called early indications positive.
Who decided it
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 23 carries, 153 yards, a TD
Jared Goff, DET — the go-ahead 7-yard TD to Jameson Williams
Kyler Murray, MIN — 210 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Our call: Lions 23-20, 59% to win. Right. Won by 4; a 1-point miss. The call was that Goff would beat Flores’ blitz enough to keep Detroit on schedule and the Vikings could not keep pace. Detroit stayed on schedule and Minnesota did not keep pace — but the running game did it, and Goff was sacked four times. Landed, for a different reason.
Game 6 of 14 · Sunday · MetLife Stadium
Raiders 38 at Jets 33
Kirk Cousins threw 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns, ran one in, and celebrated it by flapping his elbow at the Raiders’ training staff. Brock Bowers caught seven for 92 and two scores. Las Vegas was 4 for 4 in the red zone and 7 of 11 on third down, and Dylan Laube returned a kickoff 95 yards twelve seconds after the Jets had taken the lead.
The Jets outgained Las Vegas 439 to 333 — Braelon Allen ran for 147, Adonai Mitchell caught seven for 142 — but went 2 for 6 in the red zone and settled for four Jason Sanders field goals. Jeremy Chinn’s toe-tap interception sealed it. The Raiders snapped a four-game skid.
Who decided it
Kirk Cousins, LV — 19 of 26, 247 yards, 3 TD passes, 1 rushing
Brock Bowers, LV — 7 catches, 92 yards, 2 TD
Dylan Laube, LV — 95-yard kickoff return TD
Our call: Jets 26-23, 59% to win. Wrong. Lost by 5; a 8-point miss. We said the Jets would protect Geno Smith and the Raiders would be kicking field goals. Las Vegas scored touchdowns on all four red-zone trips; it was the Jets who kicked. Missed.
Game 7 of 14 · Sunday · Acrisure Stadium
Browns 6 at Steelers 27
Cleveland talked all week and Pittsburgh answered for three hours. The Steelers sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, ran for 200 yards — Jaylen Warren 143 of them on his 28th birthday — and held the Browns to 0 for 3 in the red zone. Watson threw for 324 yards and the Browns scored six points.
Pittsburgh has now beaten Cleveland 23 straight times at home in the regular season, tying the NFL record for one opponent. The Steelers lead the AFC North at 6-2; the Browns are 5-3.
Who decided it
Jaylen Warren, PIT — 17 carries, 143 yards, a TD
Patrick Queen, PIT — 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE — 10 catches, 154 yards in a lost cause
Our call: Steelers 21-17, 62% to win. Right. Won by 21; a 17-point miss. The call: Pittsburgh’s edge rushers win, and the Browns don’t get a fourth-quarter chance. Eight sacks; Cleveland scored nothing after halftime. Landed.
Game 8 of 14 · Sunday · Raymond James Stadium
Falcons 0 at Buccaneers 16
Tampa Bay won without completing a pass. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3 in a driving rain and handed off 52 times; Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards and Kenny Gainwell for 140, a team-record 324 on the ground. It is the first zero-completion game by any team since Buffalo in 1974.
Atlanta was worse. Michael Penix Jr. completed 8 of 24 with four interceptions, the Falcons went 0 for 12 on third down, and they were shut out. Chase McLaughlin kicked three field goals and is 19 for 19.
Who decided it
Bucky Irving, TB — 27 carries, 170 yards, a TD
Kenny Gainwell, TB — 25 carries, 140 yards
Tampa Bay’s secondary — four interceptions of Penix
Our call: Buccaneers 23-20, 59% to win. Right. Won by 16; a 13-point miss. We said Tampa’s front would make Penix uncomfortable for the first time in a month. 8 of 24, four interceptions, 0 for 12 on third down. Landed.
Game 9 of 14 · Sunday · EverBank Stadium
Colts 7 at Jaguars 42
Five days after Indianapolis traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson, Jacksonville took it apart. Trevor Lawrence opened with a 98-yard touchdown drive and finished 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns; Bhayshul Tuten ran for 104 and scored twice; Rayuan Lane III returned an interception 92 yards with ten seconds left in the half to make it 28-0.
“An old-fashioned butt whooping,” said Jonathan Taylor, who had four catches and no meaningful carries to show. The Jaguars lead the AFC South by three games.
Who decided it
Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 10 of 14, 210 yards, 3 TD
Bhayshul Tuten, JAX — 104 rushing yards, 2 TD
Rayuan Lane III, JAX — 92-yard interception return TD
Our call: Jaguars 24-17, 70% to win. Right. Won by 35; a 28-point miss. The call: Jacksonville wins the line of scrimmage and the game. It won both by 35 points. Landed.
Game 10 of 14 · Sunday · SoFi Stadium
Chargers 9 at Rams 24
The Chargers led 9-3 on three Cameron Dicker field goals and the Rams did not record a first down until the second quarter. Then Kyren Williams scored before halftime, Blake Corum broke a 23-yarder and Puka Nacua caught an 18-yard touchdown, and the Rams won the second half 14-0.
Justin Herbert threw two interceptions and fumbled once; Aaron Donald chased that fumble toward his first touchdown and watched it bounce out of bounds. The Chargers ran for 64 yards and are 0-7. The Rams have won two in a row for the first time since January.
Who decided it
Puka Nacua, LAR — 11 catches, 80 yards, a TD
Blake Corum, LAR — 73 rushing yards, a TD
Cameron Dicker, LAC — all nine Chargers points
Our call: Rams 23-17, 67% to win. Right. Won by 15; a 9-point miss. The call: the Chargers don’t solve first down, and the Rams win. 64 rushing yards, 2.5 a carry. Landed.
Game 11 of 14 · Sunday · Empower Field at Mile High
Chiefs 24 at Broncos 28
Kansas City led 24-13 early in the fourth quarter and lost. Patrick Mahomes had 321 yards and three touchdowns, including a 73-yarder to rookie Emmett Johnson, and Kansas City committed no turnovers. Denver closed to 24-21 on Bo Nix’s touchdown to Nate Adkins and a two-point pass to Jaylen Waddle.
Then Harrison Butker missed wide right from 54 in the rain with 2½ minutes left, Nix hit Jonah Coleman for 51 yards and Coleman scored on the next snap. Kansas City drove to the goal line; Malcolm Roach sacked Mahomes on fourth-and-goal on the final play. Denver has won 15 straight one-score games and leads the AFC West.
Who decided it
Bo Nix, DEN — 222 yards, 2 TD, the two-point pass
Jonah Coleman, DEN — 51-yard catch and the winning TD run
Malcolm Roach, DEN — the fourth-and-goal sack on the last play
Our call: Chiefs 23-20, 59% to win. Wrong. Lost by 4; a 7-point miss. We said Kenneth Walker would keep Kansas City ahead of the chains and that would decide it. Walker ran 21 times for 69 yards; the Chiefs lost. Missed.
Game 12 of 14 · Sunday · Hard Rock Stadium
Patriots 24 at Dolphins 19
Miami led 13-3 at halftime and New England then scored 21 straight. Drake Maye, without A.J. Brown, Mack Hollins or TreVeyon Henderson, completed 16 of 20 for 199 yards, threw touchdowns of 43 yards to Kyle Williams and 48 to DeMario Douglas, and ran one in.
Malik Willis threw two touchdowns for Miami, the second a 35-yarder to rookie Kevin Coleman Jr. with two minutes left, but the two-point try failed and the Dolphins never got close again.
Who decided it
Drake Maye, NE — 16 of 20, 199 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 rushing
DeMario Douglas, NE — 48-yard catch-and-run TD
Malik Willis, MIA — 211 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Our call: Patriots 27-17, 77% to win. Right. Won by 5; a 5-point miss. The call: Maye gets enough time and Miami’s secondary can’t keep up. Two long touchdowns and 10 yards an attempt. Landed — after a first half where it did not.
Game 13 of 14 · Sunday night · Northwest Stadium
Eagles 10 at Commanders 27
Washington spent the first quarter committing penalties and fell behind 10-0, then scored 27 straight. Jayden Daniels threw for 217 yards and a touchdown to Stefon Diggs; Drew Stevens kicked four field goals, the first from 56.
Tanner McKee was sacked five times and intercepted once, and Philadelphia did not score after the first quarter. It is the Eagles’ sixth straight loss. It is Daniels’ first win as a starter since October 2025.
Who decided it
Jayden Daniels, WAS — 217 yards, a TD
Drew Stevens, WAS — four field goals, long of 56
Washington’s defense — 5 sacks, shutout over the last three quarters
Our call: Commanders 23-17, 67% to win. Right. Won by 17; a 11-point miss. The call: Washington’s pressure finally gets home and McKee takes the hits. Five sacks, three scoreless quarters. Landed.
Game 14 of 14 · Monday night · Lumen Field
Bears 34 at Seahawks 17
Jeffery Simmons, acquired from Tennessee on Thursday for a package that included two first-round picks, sacked Sam Darnold on the opening drive of his Bears debut and set the tone for the night. Seattle converted one third down in eleven and scored once in four red-zone trips.
Caleb Williams went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and a touchdown to Luther Burden III, and D’Andre Swift scored three short touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught a 43-yard touchdown before halftime, and Seattle got within 20-17 early in the fourth; Chicago then scored twice.
Who decided it
Jeffery Simmons, CHI — a sack, 3 pressures, in his debut
D’Andre Swift, CHI — 3 rushing touchdowns
Caleb Williams, CHI — 24 of 34, 247 yards, a TD
Our call: Seahawks 23-20, 59% to win. Wrong. Lost by 17; a 20-point miss. The call: Seattle wins more third downs than it loses. Seattle went 1 for 11; Chicago 7 for 15. Missed.
What We Got Wrong
Bears 34, Seahawks 17 — 59% on the loser, wrong by 20. We built Monday night around Seattle’s third-down defense at home, and Seattle went 1 for 11 on third down on offense while Chicago went 7 for 15. The single biggest input we did not have was Jeffery Simmons, traded to Chicago on Thursday after the preview was written; he sacked Darnold on the opening drive. That is information we could not have used. But we also read Chicago’s offense as better than Seattle’s by every efficiency measure and still picked Seattle because of the venue. The market had it at three, and a 17-point loss in a game priced at three is more than variance.
Colts 7, Jaguars 42 — right winner, a 28-point miss, and the wrong side of the spread. We took Indianapolis +10 at 59% on the theory that a storm and a ground game would shorten the game. Five days after trading two captains, the Colts were not a team that could shorten anything. This is our clearest case this week of reasoning about a team’s identity when the team had just changed: the market moved to Jacksonville and we leaned against the move.
Ravens 10, Bills 36 — a 22-point miss, mostly not ours. Our forecast assumed Lamar Jackson. He took one snap; Baltimore finished the game with its third quarterback. We would make the same call again on the same information.
Browns 6, Steelers 27 and Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16 — right winners, 17- and 13-point misses. Both were coin-flip prices in our forecast. Both were one-sided games: eight sacks in Pittsburgh, four interceptions and a rainstorm in Tampa. We underrated the favorite in both, and across the week favorites beat our margin far more often than not.
Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 (OT) — 70% on the loser. Dallas led by 14 in the fourth quarter. A backup quarterback off the bench, a 63-yard run, a touchdown with six seconds left and a missed extra point is a game that landed the other way; we do not have a lesson here beyond the obvious one that 70% loses three times in ten.
Chiefs and Jets — two coin flips that landed on the other side. Kansas City lost on a missed 54-yard field goal and a fourth-and-goal sack on the final play; the Jets outgained Las Vegas by 106 yards and lost on red-zone field goals and a kickoff return. We had both at 59%. Losing two of five games called at 59% is about what 59% means.
What We Got Right
Ten winners, all of them favorites. We did not take a single position against the market this week, so none of the ten counts as insight. In most of them our forecast sat within a point of the spread — Cincinnati by 10, Dallas by 7, Detroit by 3, Washington by 6, Seattle by 3 — and where the forecast simply restated the line, the credit belongs to the line.
The Thing To Watch had its best week of the season: 9 of 13 calls landed, with one unresolvable. Green Bay sacking Bryce Young at least three times (six), Pittsburgh’s edge rush wrecking Cleveland (eight sacks), Tampa making Penix uncomfortable (four interceptions), Washington’s pressure finally getting home on McKee (five sacks), and the Titans’ second-quarter fade. Detroit’s call landed for the wrong reason — the run game kept the Lions on schedule, not Goff beating the blitz — and we count it with that caveat.
One underdog won by exactly the route we named. We wrote that Las Vegas needed a clean pocket for Cousins, Bowers winning against linebackers, and red-zone trips turning into touchdowns rather than field goals. Cousins was sacked once, Bowers caught two touchdowns, and the Raiders went 4 for 4 in the red zone. Denver’s case leaned on one Butker miss, and that miss decided the game, but Mahomes threw for 321 yards against the coverage we said would stop him; we count it as partial. Arizona and Chicago won by routes we did not name.
The Week That Was
Minnesota is mortal, and the NFC North is a three-way race. The last unbeaten team lost at Detroit when its run defense, the league’s best, gave up 230 yards. Minnesota is 6-1, Detroit 5-2, Chicago 6-2 after winning in Seattle on Monday night with a defensive tackle it had owned for four days.
Joe Burrow had a day nobody had had since Norm Van Brocklin. 462 passing yards, five touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a 43-36 overtime win over a Tennessee team that played without its best defender, traded away that morning. Cam Ward was nearly as good on the other side, and the 1-7 Titans have now given Cincinnati the most dangerous game of its season.
The AFC has three new division leaders in waiting. Pittsburgh took the AFC North at 6-2 by beating Cleveland for the 23rd straight time at home. Denver took the AFC West half a game ahead of Kansas City with its 15th straight one-score win. Jacksonville leads the AFC South by three games after a 42-7 dismantling of a Colts team that had just traded Buckner and Nelson.
Tampa Bay won a football game without completing a pass. 52 handoffs, 324 rushing yards, 0 for 3 passing, 16-0. The last team to do it was the 1974 Bills. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions in the same rain.
The bottom of the league got worse. Philadelphia, without Jalen Hurts for the season, lost its sixth straight. The Chargers are 0-7 after a 24-9 loss to the Rams. Baltimore lost Jackson for what may be the season and Huntley in the same afternoon. Dallas blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home to an Arizona team that benched its starter at halftime.
And some fun. Kirk Cousins, 38, celebrated a one-yard touchdown run with a “wellness celebration” for the Raiders’ training staff. Aaron Donald, 35, nearly scored his first touchdown on a loose Herbert fumble and lay on the turf in mock exhaustion when it bounced out of bounds.
Injuries That Change Things
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore — right thumb, surgery, injured reserve, possibly the season. Tyler Huntley (suspected turf toe, MRI Monday) also left Sunday’s game, which ended with emergency third-stringer Joe Fagnano. Until Huntley’s status is known, Baltimore’s next games should be priced as a team without a starting quarterback. This changes the AFC North as much as Sunday’s result in Pittsburgh did.
Jack Campbell, Detroit — neck. Carted off on a backboard and taken to hospital; he remained there Monday and the Lions call the early indications positive. No timeline. Detroit also lost safety Brian Branch and edge D.J. Wonnum to concussions and center Cade Mays to an ankle in the same game, which is a lot of a defense to lose in one afternoon.
Arizona’s quarterback job. Jacoby Brissett was benched at 17-3 after 10 of 23 for 119 yards and an interception; Gardner Minshew threw three touchdowns in relief. Whoever starts next week is a different team, and Arizona also lost running backs Jeremiyah Love (ankle) and Bam Knight (concussion) and receiver Kendrick Bourne (ankle).
DaVon Hamilton, Jacksonville — torn quadriceps, out for the season. A real loss to the run defense that just held the Colts to 109 yards, on a team that now leads its division by three games.
Dallas’ secondary and tight end. Jake Ferguson (ankle), Joey Porter Jr. (ankle) and rookie safety Caleb Downs (concussion) all left the Arizona game. A pass defense that was already among the league’s worst may be thinner next week.
Also out of Week 8 games: Rams corners Jaylen Watson (shoulder) and Trent McDuffie (back), Buccaneers linebacker YaYa Diaby (knee), Chiefs defensive lineman Peter Woods (neck), Raiders corner Darien Porter (groin), Bills receiver Josh Palmer (hamstring). Green Bay’s Christian Watson went to hospital with a chest injury after a 53-yard catch and returned to the game. Statuses for these will be clearer on Wednesday’s practice reports.
The Season So Far
Winners picked vs. taking every favorite, season (games won out of 121, Weeks 1–8)
Winners picked by week (share of games picked right; games in brackets)
How often our confidence came true (season, 121 games)
| Stated chance | Games | Won | Won % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 46 | 21 | 46% |
| 60–69% | 34 | 23 | 68% |
| 70–79% | 39 | 25 | 64% |
| 80–89% | 2 | 2 | — |
Stated chance vs. how often it came true (win rate by band, 0–100% scale; grey = band midpoint we stated, orange = what happened)
Our least confident picks are still winning less than half the time: 21 of 46 at 50–59%, about twelve points below what we said. That is just inside normal variation for 46 games, and it has been there for weeks. The 60–69% band is on its rate. The 70–79% band went 3-1 this week and is at 64% over 39 games, about nine points under what we stated — again inside normal variation, still worth watching. The 80% band holds two games and says nothing.
Our margin forecasts show no lean over the season: across 121 games they sit within a fraction of a point of the real margins on average, even after a week where favorites beat our number by almost four points a game. Our scoring forecasts are still low over the whole season, 2.4 points a game; over the 57 games since we raised every total by 1.5 points they are 1.6 low, which is inside normal variation, so we are not raising them again.
Games started by a quarterback who was not his team’s Week 1 starter now number 15. This week there were two, Penix and McKee, and we were right on both because we picked against them. Over the 15, our winners record is 5-10 and our average margin miss about 12.8 points against 10.1 overall — worse, but not by enough over 15 games to call it a pattern yet.
Not betting advice. The forecasts graded here are a model’s estimates and will be wrong in both directions; they are published so they can be scored, and this page is the scoring.